Lower Leagues, R34 (Feb 23)

There would’ve been fervent local interest anyhow in the derby match taking place at Gigg Lane, Bury, this weekend. In the shifting sands of Greater Manchester (much) lesser derbies, this is a relatively regular fixture. This marks the fourth consecutive season of Bury-Oldham derbies, and the sixth season out of eight they’ve occurred.

Add into the mixer Mr Scholes and his friendly rivalry with Class of ’92 mates the Nevilles and Chris Casper, add in Bury’s stellar form as they challenge for an immediate return to League One, and all is set for a match Sky Sports is sure to send a reporter to cover tomorrow afternoon.

For what it’s worth, The Model thinks Bury will prevail 2-1 (7%), and they are overwhelming favourites (56% to win) given Oldham’s mid-table malaise, and given that the Scholes honeymoon appears to already be over.

Elsewhere, Luton to march on (1-0, 22% vs Coventry), Barnsley to open up a gap over seriously flagging Pompey (0-1, 9%).

Forecast Win (%)
League One Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Accrington Southend 1-0 11% 46% 28%
AFC Wimb Charlton 0-1 19% 32% 41%
Blackpool Oxford 1-0 19% 57% 20%
Bristol R Sunderland 0-1 16% 32% 40%
Burton Fleetwood 1-0 12% 46% 27%
Luton Coventry 1-0 22% 65% 15%
Peterboro Shrewsbury 2-1 10% 45% 28%
Plymouth Rochdale 2-1 7% 54% 21%
Portsmouth Barnsley 0-1 9% 33% 40%
Scunthorpe Doncaster 1-2 9% 30% 43%
Walsall Bradford 1-1 10% 36% 36%
Wycombe Gillingham 1-0 10% 48% 26%

 

Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Bury Oldham 2-1 7% 56% 20%
Cheltenham Port Vale 1-0 16% 53% 22%
Colchester Carlisle 2-1 10% 42% 31%
Crawley Macclesfield 1-0 14% 42% 31%
Crewe Exeter 1-0 10% 38% 35%
Mansfield F Green 1-0 16% 45% 28%
MK Dons Newport 1-0 11% 46% 27%
Morecambe Lincoln 0-2 10% 27% 46%
Stevenage N’hampton 1-0 11% 39% 33%
Swindon Grimsby 1-0 15% 43% 29%
Tranmere Notts Co 1-0 12% 60% 18%
Yeovil Cambridge 1-0 19% 40% 33%
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Premier League, R27 (22-24 Feb)

Unusually, there are two Premier League fixtures on a Friday evening.

Cardiff welcome Watford in one of these games. Both teams are on good form, having won their last two each in all competitions. The Model gives the away side the edge, with a 43% chance of a Watford victory and the most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%).

The other fixture this evening is an all-London derby: East-side meets West-side. West Ham are unsurprisingly favourites to beat Fulham at their bargain-basement home in Stratford, with a 56% chance of a win, and the most likely outcome being 1-0 (10%).

With Man City in Carabao Cup Final action, Liverpool have the chance to pile on some pressure. But to do so they must overcome Ole’s Utd at Old Trafford. The Model says this might be too difficult a task, and gives Man Utd the edge, with a 39% chance of winning. The most likely outcome is 1-0 (8%).

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 27 of the Premier League:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Arsenal Southampton 2-0 10 60 17
Bournemouth Wolves 0-1 8 34 39
Burnley Spurs 1-2 10 25 49
Cardiff Watford 0-1 14 30 43
Leicester Crystal Palace 1-0 13 40 33
Manchester Utd Liverpool 1-0 8 39 33
Newcastle Huddersfield 1-0 23 63 16
West Ham Fulham 1-0 10 56 20

Championship Catch-Up R29 (19-20 Feb)

There are two Championship fixtures over the next two evenings, starting with QPR v West Brom tonight. QPR are on a run of 5 straight league defeats, and haven’t won in 7. This means they have dropped well out of any play-off picture. West Brom, on the other hand, could move to within a point of the automatic promotion places with a win tonight. The Model gives the away team a 43% chance of a win, and a most likely scoreline of 1-2 (8%).

Derby welcome Millwall to Pride Park tomorrow. The Rams have two games in hand on some of those around them, and need to take advantage to get back into the play-offs. The Model gives them a better than even chance of a win, 51%, and the most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%).

Our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
QPR West Brom 1-2 8 30 43
Derby Millwall 1-0 13 51 24

Lower League Catch Up (19 Feb edition)

More midweek catch-up in the lower leagues. Five 1-0 home wins tonight in League One according to The Model, and all do genuinely look like home bankers.

Forecast Win (%)
League One Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Accrington Oxford 1-0 14% 42% 30%
Barnsley Burton 1-0 17% 59% 18%
Portsmouth Bristol R 1-0 16% 50% 24%
Rochdale AFC Wim 1-0 12% 42% 31%
Sunderland Gillingham 1-0 12% 60% 18%

In League Two the games come thick and fast for Paul Scholes’s Oldham. The Model doesn’t think this will affect them as they face Morecambe at Boundary Park. Another crunch match for improving Notts County too. Can they get off the bottom of the Football League?

Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Cheltenham Cambridge U 1-0 13% 45% 28%
Notts Co Newport Co 0-1 11% 34% 38%
Oldham Morecambe 2-0 11% 59% 18%
Port Vale Tranmere 0-1 18% 33% 39%

Champions League R16 L1 (b) (19-20 Feb)

Second week of the much dragged out Champions League Round of 16 this week, and of the English contenders it’s the turn of Liverpool and Man City.

Our predictions are in the table below:

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Liverpool B Munich 2-1 10% 55% 21%
Lyon Barcelona 0-1 12% 30% 43%
Atl Madrid Juventus 0-1 16% 34% 38%
Schalke Man City 0-1 17% 18% 59%

The forecasts of Jean-Louis Foulley for the same matches are:

    Win %
Foulley forecasts Score P(R) P(H) P(A)
Lyon Barcelona 0-2 10% 17% 62%
Liverpool Bayern Munich 1-1 11% 48% 28 %
Atl Madrid Juventus 1-1 11% 41% 34%
Schalke Man City 0-1 11% 19% 60%

Our forecasts are almost exactly identical for Schalke vs Man City, but otherwise quite different. We shall see how the two nights turn out!

Championship, R33 (16-17 Feb, 2019)

Despite the world’s attention being on the FA cup this weekend, there are still Championship fixtures taking place (involving generally mediocre teams).

Ipswich are as good as relegated already, and have been for a couple of months now. Today the Tractor Boys welcome Stoke to Portman Road. Do us a favour and smash them please, Ipswich! Alas, the Model is more objective, and reckons Ipswich will struggle as ever this season, with only a 32% chance of victory (though I bet most fans would snap your hand off at that), and a most likely scoreline of 0-1 (21%).

The other two sides in the drop zone are also playing today. Both are at home and desperate for a win. Bolton only have a 24% chance against Norwich, whereas Rotherham have a 35% chance of beating the Owls.

Our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Aston Villa West Brom 1-1 9 36 36
Bolton Norwich 0-1 16 24 50
Ipswich Stoke 0-1 21 32 40
Preston Notts Forest 1-0 17 48 26
Rotherham Sheffield Wed 0-1 10 35 38
Sheff Utd Reading 2-0 14 59 18
Blackburn Middlesbrough 0-0 14 36 36

FA Cup Round 5 (Feb 15-18)

The FA Cup Fifth Round happens this weekend. The Model doesn’t think there’s going to be any upsets.

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
QPR Watford 0-1 25% 24% 50%
AFC Wim Millwall 1-2 5% 24% 51%
Brighton Derby 1-0 12% 50% 24%
Newport Co Man City 0-2 13% 6% 83%
Bristol C Wolves 0-1 18% 31% 41%
Doncaster C Palace 0-1 10% 24% 51%
Swansea Brentford 2-0 10% 40% 32%
Chelsea Man Utd 1-0 10% 43% 30%