We have moved to a more “official” University of Reading blog

Dear Readers,

This is to let you know that from today we will be posting our scoreline forecasts at:

http://blogs.reading.ac.uk/econscorecast/

Also, keep an eye out for us on a certain weekly UK football show to be broadcast on 20th April.

Best wishes,

Scorecasting Economists

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Lower Leagues, midweek April 9

Those all important games in hand. Who will make the most of them? In the epic League One relegation battle a crucial game takes place in the heart of Lancashire, as Accrington host Rochdale. The Model fancies Stanley to turn Dale over 2-1 (10%), edging Accrington closer to safety, and Rochdale closer to the drop.

At the other end, Sunderland play one of their two games in hand when they host Burton. The Model thinks they will leapfrog the Yorkshiremen into the second automatic promotion spot tonight with a 1-0 win (16%).

In League Two Macclesfield face a tough task in their game in hand against play-off chasing Exeter City. The Model thinks that Macc will still be in the drop zone at 10pm tonight (0-1, 13%).

Forecast Win (%)
League One Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Accrington Rochdale 2-1 10% 47% 27%
Sunderland Burton 1-0 16% 56% 20%
Wycombe Charlton 0-1 12% 25% 50%
Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Macclesfield Exeter 0-1 13% 34% 39%
Newport Co Swindon 1-0 11% 40% 32%

Champions League Quarter Finals (part 1, April 9-10)

Champions League Quarter Finals. A night when some dreams can live on, and others will be shattered. Man City’s quadruple? Ajax’s fairy tail? Ronaldo and Juventus?

The Model has produced a fairly conventional set of forecasts, with the exception of one match. Manchester United are set to re-establish Fortress Old Trafford after the aberration against PSG in the last 16, as the Model expects them to turn over the sole remaining Spanish representatives, the half decent Barcelona (1-0, 13%). Will it be enough?

As always, we face off against Jean-Louis Foulley, and his forecasts are produced below, also. Foulley fully agrees with the Model on Liverpool (2-0 win), disagrees on the Tottenham-Man City result, agrees on the result and margin for Ajax and Juventus, but Foulley has a perhaps more conventional prediction for Barcelona – a 1-0 win at Old Trafford (9%).

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Tue Liverpool Porto 2-0 10% 69% 12%
Tue Tottenham Man City 1-2 8% 28% 46%
Wed Ajax Juventus 0-1 14% 30% 43%
Wed Man Utd Barcelona 1-0 13% 42% 31%
    Win
Foulley F-Score P(R) P(H) P(A)
Liverpool Porto 2-0 11% 69% 13%
Tottenham Man City 1-1 12% 34% 41%
Ajax Juventus 1-2 11% 27% 49%
Man Utd Barcelona 0-1 9% 31% 45%

Championship, R41 (9-10 Apr, 2019)

There are some massive games on tonight. Even so, all eyes will be on Ewood Park, where Derby County take on their hosts Blackburn Rovers. The Rams currently sit in 7th, and have their legions of fans retain hope that this could be the year they return to where they belong, the top table of English football. The Model also seems to appreciate the Derby Pride, and is giving them a meagre advantage over Blackburn, with a 39% chance of a win. The most likely scoreline outcome is 0-1 (9%). Come on you RAMS!!! (The Model isn’t biased – its human handlers surely are)

The rest of our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

    • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
    • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Blackburn Derby 0-1 9 34 39
Bolton Middlesbro 0-1 23 28 45
Bristol City West Brom 2-1 7 41 32
Preston Leeds 1-0 11 42 31
Sheffield Wed Notts Forest 1-0 12 45 28
Swansea Stoke 1-0 19 48 26
Birmingham Sheff Utd 1-2 9 29 44
Brentford Ipswich 1-0 12 62 16
Hull Wigan 1-0 10 57 20
Millwall QPR 1-0 12 55 21
Norwich Reading 2-0 11 67 14
Rotherham Aston Villa 0-1 11 28 46

League Two, R41 (6 April)

Lincoln may be as good as promoted already, but they still have the small matter of six remaining games, the first of which is as tough as they come for runaway leaders – a trip to second placed MK Dons. The Model thinks a 1-1 draw is most likely (12%).

The Model thinks stuttering Bury can put an end to an utterly abject week when they visit Carlisle, themselves without a win in four. But did the Model see just how bad Bury were in the week?

It’s a three way battle, essentially, for the drop out of the Football League. Improving Notts County (84%) though look set to lose further ground with a 1-0 home reverse to Northampton (9%). Yeovil (50%) are sinking fast, and look set to record a sixth straight defeat at West Country rivals Swindon tomorrow (1-0, 15%). The Model expects Macclesfield to take a huge step to safety with a 1-0 win over Morecambe (10%).

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
CAR BUR 1-2 8% 31% 41%
CHE EXE 1-0 6% 41% 31%
COL OLD 1-0 12% 38% 34%
CRA FGR 0-1 13% 30% 43%
GRI STE 1-0 14% 45% 28%
MAC MOR 1-0 10% 45% 28%
MAN CAM 1-0 18% 61% 17%
MKD LIN 1-1 12% 36% 37%
NEW TRA 1-1 12% 35% 37%
NOT NOR 0-1 9% 33% 39%
PVA CRE 1-0 16% 40% 33%
SWI YEO 1-0 15% 62% 17%

League One, R41 (April 6-7)

Much remains to be settled in League One; not least, 13 teams still need to worry a little bit about being relegated, and no team has absolutely nothing to play for… yet.

The team with the smallest probability (1%), Oxford United, can exercise that small nagging doubt by winning 1-0 at 21st place Walsall (7%), thus compounding the Midlanders’ own relegation worries (53%). Similarly recovering Wimbledon (40% chance of relegation, down from 79% in late March) look set to compound free-falling Accrington’s worries (13% of the drop) with a 1-0 win (13%).

Seemingly doomed Bradford (96% chance of the drop) entertain play-off hopefuls (45%) and fellow Yorkshiremen Doncaster, and The Model expects the Rovers to prevail 2-1 (10%).

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Sat WIM ACC 1-0 13% 51% 24%
Sat BRA DON 1-2 10% 27% 47%
Sat BUR BAR 0-1 16% 30% 43%
Sat FLE SOU 1-0 13% 57% 19%
Sat LUT BLA 1-0 20% 65% 15%
Sat PET GIL 2-1 10% 42% 30%
Sat PLY CHA 0-1 14% 30% 42%
Sat ROC SUN 0-1 10% 20% 56%
Sat SHR SCU 1-0 12% 56% 20%
Sat WAL OXF 0-1 7% 32% 40%
Sat WYC POR 1-2 10% 23% 51%
Sun COV BRI 1-0 18% 42% 31%

FA Cup Semi Finals (6-7 April)

Wembley, recently vacated by Spurs, hosts the FA Cup Semi-Finals this weekend.

The Model expects Man City to continue their relentless march towards the Quadruple, winning 3-1 against Brighton (8%), while the battle of 8th vs 7th in the Premier League, the battle of the teams whose names begin with W, is expected to go Watford’s way 1-0 (27%).

Forecast Win (%)
T1 T2 Score PR(%) P(T1) P(T2)
Sat Man City Brighton 3-1 8% 76% 9%
Sun Watford Wolves 1-0 27% 41% 31%