Taking on the Model – Steve Brand

The Premier League is back after the international break, so the Model is dusting itself off, too. With the exception of the goalfest that Bournemouth and Southampton is set to be, there’s a familiar paucity of goals about our predictions. Just 15 in total.

Lawro thinks there’s going to be 19 goals, and Merson always picks loads.

The Model has been beaten by Ronnie d’Arch Smith, scraped a draw with Andrew Brown, beat two three year old boys but came a cropper against a five year old girl. With that inauspicious record, this week Steve Brand, Associate Professor in Economics at the University of Plymouth, and big Sheffield Wednesday fan, fancies his chances.

All the forecasts, below:

Model Lawrenson Merson Brand
ARS LEI 1-0 2-0 3-1 3-1
BOU SOU 4-3 2-1 1-1 2-0
CAR FUL 0-0 1-2 2-1 1-1
CHE MUN 1-0 1-1 3-1 3-1
EVE CRY 1-0 2-0 2-0 2-1
HUD LIV 0-2 0-2 0-3 1-3
MCI BUR 2-0 3-0 3-0 4-0
NEW BRI 1-0 2-0 1-0 1-1
WHU TOT 0-1 1-1 1-1 1-3
WOL WAT 1-0 2-0 2-1 1-1
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Premiership, R9 (20-22 Oct)

Mourinho returns to Chelsea tomorrow with his reputation beleaguered. He is no doubt a great manager, and one of the Premier League era’s greats. But does the generally compact and cautious style of football he demands from his players really stand a chance against the explosiveness of Klopp and Guardiola, in a league where the degree of competitive balance is generally shrinking year-on-year. For what it’s worth, the Model forecasts a 1-0 win to Chelsea against Utd.

When the Model sees Southampton it goes a little bit haywire. All complex statistical models have a little personality, and the odd bug or several, and we think Southampton brings the worst/best out in the Scorecasting Model. This week the Model forecasts a scoreline of 4-3 in the match between Bournemouth and Southampton. Despite this being the most likely scoreline consistent with the most likely result (a win to Bournemouth), that scoreline overall has just a 2% chance of actually occurring according to the Model. Hmm…

The rest of our Premier League forecasts are in the the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Arsenal Leicester 1-0 6 54 21
Bournemouth Southampton 4-3 2 48 25
Cardiff Fulham 0-0 18 34 37
Chelsea Manchester Utd 1-0 35 53 21
Everton Crystal Palace 1-0 13 46 26
Huddersfield Liverpool 0-2 25 23 50
Manchester City Burnley 2-0 27 64 14
Newcastle Brighton 1-0 21 42 29
West Ham Spurs 0-1 24 28 44
Wolves Watford 1-0 6 45 27

 

Championship, R13 (19-20 Oct, 2018)

The Baggies are Boinging. West Brom sit 2nd in the table and are one of the form teams. They have real international quality in their squad, so could be at a disadvantage following the break. Nonetheless, the Model forecasts them to win away against Wigan: 1-2 (9%).

Sitting pretty at the top are Sheffield United. The Blades would not have featured highly in many pundits’ tips for promotion before the season began, but the Blades are currently on a run of 4 straight wins, hoping to make it 5 away at Derby County. However, the Model favours the Rams in this match-up: 1-0 (10%).

At the other end of the table sit Hull. They face fellow strugglers Preston tomorrow, and the Model forecasts neither side will get a much-needed win: 1-1 (10%).

The rest of our Championship forecasts are in the the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Sheffield Wed Middlesbrough 0-0 23 39 33
Aston Villa Swansea 0-0 24 38 33
Blackburn Leeds 0-0 31 36 35
Brentford Bristol City 2-1 9 47 26
Derby Sheff Utd 1-0 10 42 30
Hull Preston 1-1 10 33 38
Ipswich QPR 1-0 12 39 32
Notts Forest Norwich 1-0 21 45 27
Reading Millwall 0-0 16 33 38
Rotherham Bolton 1-0 8 40 32
Stoke Birmingham 1-0 18 45 27
Wigan West Brom 1-2 9 30 42

Women’s Super League, R5 (14/10/2018)

Manchester City remain unbeaten and the Model says that won’t change this weekend, as they welcome West Ham “Up North”. The most likely outcome is 6-0 (10%) to the Sky Blues.

Brighton are yet to get off the mark in WSL this season, including in the goals scored column of the table. They travel to Southport to take on Everton on Sunday. The Model predicts the misery to continue, with 2-0 being the forecast scoreline.

The rest of our WSL forecasts are in the the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
WSL
Bristol Birmingham 0-1 14 19 64
Chelsea Arsenal 1-0 12 54 27
Everton Brighton 2-0 12 67 17
Liverpool Yeovil 4-0 10 88 5
Man City West Ham 6-0 10 89 5
WC
Aston Villa Durham 1-2 9 13 74
Crystal Palace London Bees 2-1 10 72 14
Lewes Tottenham 2-1 6 49 31
Man Utd Charlton 4-0 14 58 24
Millwall Leicester 2-1 9 44 35

 

Lower Leagues, R13 (October 12-13)

Formerly free-scoring Peterborough are looking to get their fading strong start back on track this weekend. With just one win in five, after winning six of the first seven, Posh are three points behind leaders Portsmouth now. By the end of the weekend, it could be five points, as Portsmouth are expected to win 1-0 at AFC Wimbledon (17%), while Peterborough are expected to draw at improving Scunthorpe. While the likelihood of a 1-1 draw is only 2%, Peterborough have only a 35% chance of winning to Scunthorpe’s 36%, making a closely fought draw the most likely outcome.

Forecast Win (%)
League One Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Accrington Bradford 1-0 15% 50% 23%
AFC W’don Portsmouth 0-1 17% 28% 44%
Barnsley Luton 2-0 13% 49% 24%
Burton Bristol R 1-0 14% 45% 27%
Coventry Wycombe 0-0 43% 36% 35%
Fleetwood Shrewsbury 1-0 21% 45% 27%
Gillingham Southend 1-1 11% 34% 37%
Oxford Plymouth 1-1 12% 39% 32%
Rochdale Doncaster 1-1 8% 39% 32%
Scunthorpe Peterboro 1-1 2% 36% 35%
Sunderland Blackpool 1-0 15% 44% 28%
Walsall Charlton 1-0 6% 45% 27%

In League Two, the Football League’s most miserly away defence is expected to continue its fine record. Oldham have only conceded one goal on their travels all season, and they are expected to win 2-0 at Notts County (11%). Forest Green, the scorers of that single goal, are expected to retain their impressive unbeaten record with a 1-0 win at Northampton (8%).

Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Cambridge MK Dons 0-1 13% 25% 47%
Carlisle M’cambe 1-0 11% 55% 20%
Chelt’nham Yeovil 0-1 13% 29% 43%
Colchester Crawley 3-2 1.4% 48% 25%
Crewe Bury 1-1 11% 36% 35%
Exeter Swindon 1-0 2% 51% 22%
Mansfield Grimsby 1-0 15% 50% 23%
Newport Co Stevenage 1-0 2.4% 42% 30%
N’hampton F Green 0-1 8% 31% 40%
Notts Co Oldham 0-2 11% 31% 40%
Port Vale Lincoln 0-2 13% 27% 45%
Tranmere Macc’field 1-0 8% 52% 22%

The Second International Break

The second international break is upon us, with attention focussed on the behind closed doors match England will play against Croatia on Friday evening. If our forecast is to be believed, all those fans kept from parting with money may be relieved; a drab goalless draw appears to be the most likely score (16%).

As this post is being written, due to a bug with the dataset, the model hasn’t fully been re-estimated, and the international matches have begun for this set of dates, with Italy facing the Ukraine. Italy are expected to win 1-0 (19%). The Indonesia match is a backcast, as it occurred earlier today, and Indonesia won 3-0…

Forecast Win (%)
10th October Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Albania Jordan 1-0 23% 40% 31%
Indonesia Myanmar 1-0 7% 45% 26%
Italy Ukraine 1-0 19% 45% 27%

Considering Thursday evening, France will comfortably beat Iceland (84% chance of a France win), Scotland should win in Israel (1-0, 10%), and Spain ought to win 1-0 in the Welsh valleys (16%).

Forecast Win (%)
11th October Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Faroes Azerbaijan 0-1 13% 29% 41%
France Iceland 2-0 12% 84% 5%
Iraq Argentina 0-2 16% 17% 59%
Israel Scotland 0-1 10% 18% 57%
Kosovo Malta 1-0 22% 80% 7%
Lithuania Romania 0-1 23% 13% 67%
Montenegro Serbia 0-1 12% 25% 47%
Poland Portugal 1-1 13% 33% 37%
Russia Sweden 1-0 9% 54% 20%
Turkey Bosnia-Hz. 1-0 12% 43% 28%
Wales Spain 0-1 16% 16% 61%

On Friday, Croatia and England will draw (15%), Belgium will beat Switzerland 1-0 (13%), and the USA will draw with Colombia (1-1, 13%).

Forecast Win (%)
12th October Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Austria N Ireland 1-0 19% 70% 11%
Belarus Luxembourg 2-0 15% 53% 21%
Belgium Switzerland 1-0 13% 70% 11%
Croatia England 0-0 15% 39% 32%
Estonia Finland 0-0 21% 34% 36%
Greece Hungary 1-0 16% 67% 13%
Japan Panama 2-0 12% 66% 13%
Mexico Costa Rica 1-0 16% 70% 11%
Moldova San Marino 2-0 27% 83% 6%
Qatar Ecuador 0-1 13% 30% 41%
Saudi Arabia Brazil 0-3 13% 11% 70%
South Korea Uruguay 0-1 16% 20% 54%
USA Colombia 1-1 13% 37% 33%

On Saturday, the two most populous countries on the planet do battle, and China is expected to comfortably win 5-1 (6%). One of Europe’s grudge matches takes place too, the Dutch expected to hold the Germans in the Netherlands 1-1 (12%).

Forecast Win (%)
13th October Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Armenia Gibraltar 3-0 17% 73% 10%
Bulgaria Cyprus 1-0 13% 77% 8%
China India 5-1 6% 66% 13%
Georgia Andorra 2-0 22% 84% 5%
Holland Germany 1-1 12% 39% 31%
Ireland Denmark 0-0 15% 31% 39%
Latvia Kazakhstan 0-1 10% 27% 44%
Macedonia Liechtenstein 2-0 20% 83% 6%
Myanmar Bolivia 1-2 9% 29% 42%
Norway Slovenia 1-0 15% 56% 19%
Peru Chile 1-0 11% 46% 26%
Slovakia Czech Rep 1-0 11% 47% 25%

On Sunday, Poland are expected to upset the Italians with a 1-0 win (11%), and the match-up of international pariah states will see Russia beat Turkey 2-1 (9%).

Forecast Win (%)
14th October Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Azerbaijan Malta 1-0 25% 72% 10%
Faroe Islands Kosovo 0-1 11% 19% 56%
Israel Albania 1-1 13% 34% 36%
Lithuania Montenegro 0-1 21% 22% 51%
Poland Italy 1-0 11% 46% 26%
Romania Serbia 1-0 16% 48% 24%
Russia Turkey 2-1 9% 56% 18%
Scotland Portugal 0-1 15% 22% 51%

On Monday, Spain are expected to deal with the threat of Gareth Southgate’s England 1-0 (16%).

Forecast Win (%)
15th October Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Belarus Moldova 1-0 21% 74% 9%
Bosnia-Hz. N Ireland 1-0 19% 64% 14%
Croatia Jordan 2-0 20% 80% 7%
Estonia Hungary 1-0 10% 52% 21%
Finland Greece 1-0 18% 41% 29%
Iceland Switzerland 0-1 10% 22% 50%
Kuwait Australia 0-1 14% 22% 50%
Luxembourg San Marino 2-0 26% 87% 4%
Saudi Arabia Iraq 1-0 13% 52% 21%
Spain England 1-0 16% 60% 16%

On Monday, Brazil are strong favourites to beat Argentina (1-0 17%), and Ireland should expect to beat Wales by the same scoreline (1-0, 17%).

Forecast Win (%)
16th October Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Armenia Macedonia 1-1 12% 34% 37%
Belgium Holland 2-1 9% 68% 12%
Brazil Argentina 1-0 17% 74% 9%
China Syria 1-0 14% 46% 26%
Colombia Costa Rica 1-0 15% 72% 10%
Denmark Austria 1-0 16% 48% 24%
France Germany 1-0 10% 66% 13%
Gibraltar Liechtenstein 1-0 16% 59% 17%
Indonesia Hong Kong 1-0 28% 56% 19%
Iran Bolivia 1-0 23% 73% 10%
Ireland Wales 1-0 17% 44% 27%
Japan Uruguay 0-1 10% 22% 51%
Kazakhstan Andorra 2-0 22% 78% 7%
Latvia Georgia 0-1 11% 17% 59%
Norway Bulgaria 1-0 15% 40% 30%
Oman Ecuador 0-2 10% 23% 49%
Slovenia Cyprus 1-0 19% 67% 12%
South Korea Panama 1-0 17% 63% 15%
Sweden Slovakia 1-0 15% 54% 20%
UAE Venezuela 1-1 13% 33% 37%
Ukraine Czech Rep 1-0 18% 65% 14%
Uzbekistan Qatar 1-0 17% 48% 24%

An end to the international break in the Americas should see a couple of home wins, Mexico over Chile and the US over Peru.

Forecast Win (%)
17th October Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Mexico Chile 1-0 14% 53% 21%
USA Peru 1-0 14% 47% 24%

Model vs Experts, R8 (Oct 5-7)

The first game is underway as we write, so a slightly later than usual check of the Model’s forecasts against the experts. We’ve taken quite a humbling from the experts in recent weeks, so it’s somewhat heartening to see quite a bit of agreement between us, Merson and Lawrenson. With the exception of tonight’s game…

Model Lawrenson Merson
Brighton West Ham 1-0 2-1 2-2
Burnley Huddersfield 1-0 2-1 2-0
C Palace Wolves 1-0 2-0 1-2
Fulham Arsenal 1-1 1-1 2-3
Leicester Everton 2-1 2-1 2-1
Liverpool Man City 1-1 1-1 1-2
Man Utd Newcastle 1-0 2-0 2-0
Southampton Chelsea 0-1 2-1 1-3
Tottenham Cardiff 3-0 3-0 2-0
Watford Bournemouth 2-1 2-1 2-1