Evaluation – A Quick Update – “The Model vs Lawro vs Merson”

The featured image plots the cumulative forecasting performance of “The Model vs Lawro vs Merson”, according to the BBC Sport scoring metric (40 points for a perfect scoreline forecast, 10 points for a correct result only).

The Model got off to a good start, but hasn’t really picked up the pace as more information about teams’ relative abilities this season has become available, which in theory should have improved its performance.

In the meantime, Merson has overtaken the Model, and Lawro is getting close.

There is a discussion to be had this weekend in the pub, however, whether matches at the start of this season were more predictable than normal. And since then, whether “predictability” in the EPL has fallen, perhaps offsetting any gains the Model has made in its abilities (e.g. the Model is gradually improving its opinion on Wolves, but struggling to distinguish Man U’s drop in form from their long-run average abilities).

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