Premier League, R15 (4-5 Dec)

It is Man U v Arsenal tomorrow night. Throughout the Premier League era, surely this has been the most exciting fixture of the season, not least due to the League’s two greatest managers, who had an intense but (usually) respectful rivalry. Utd’s current manager is in some bother, describing his star player recently as a “virus”. After seemingly arresting Utd’s decline last season, the lack of return from the transfer market and poor results this season puts Mourinho in danger of spending the whole Christmas period at home with his family. The Model thinks matters won’t get any easier for Mourinho anytime soon, and forecasts a 1-1 (10%) draw, with Utd slightly ahead in terms of chances of winning the game outright (39%).

Southampton have just sacked their manager – who apparently has been “beleaguered” for a some time, across several clubs and decades. Instead of opting for the sort of safe pair of hands which kept them up last season, Saints look set to appoint somebody who has never managed in England as their new manager. It seems unlikely that Southampton will get an immediate post-sacking (reversion to the mean) bounce on Wednesday night, as they travel to Wembley to take on Spurs. The Model has this one down as a 2-0 (17%) win to Spurs.

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 15 of the Premier League:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw


Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Bournemouth Huddersfield 2-1 10 57 19
Brighton Crystal Palace 1-0 10 41 30
Watford Manchester City 0-2 12 20 55
West Ham Cardiff 2-1 10 53 21
Burnley Liverpool 0-1 19 20 55
Everton Newcastle 1-0 18 52 22
Fulham Leicester 1-2 8 32 39
Manchester Utd Arsenal 1-1 10 39 33
Spurs Southampton 2-0 17 58 18
Wolves Chelsea 0-1 18 24 49