Lower Leagues, R26 (Jan 1)

We creep into 2019. What will it bring? Can Sunderland and Portsmouth return to the Championship? Will Luton upset those big boys? Can Lincoln and MK Dons get promotion? Will Notts County avoid falling out of the Football League after a mere 131 years as members?

The featured pic shows our current projected end-of-season probabilities (left panel is the title, middle panel the play-offs, right panel relegation), and they reveal that Luton are favourites for the League One Title, even though they trail Portsmouth by three points. But they’ve won 10 out of 11 league matches, and there’s a 42% chance they’ll carry on tomorrow when playing Barnsley. A 1-0 win is most likely (13%).

Forecast Win (%)
League One Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Blackpool Sunderland 1-0 13% 45% 27%
Bradford Accrington 0-0 14% 39% 33%
Bristol R Burton 1-0 15% 40% 32%
Charlton Walsall 1-1 12% 36% 35%
Doncaster Rochdale 2-1 9% 63% 15%
Luton Barnsley 1-0 13% 42% 30%
Peterboro Scunthorpe 2-1 9% 72% 10%
Plymouth Oxford 0-1 8% 22% 52%
Portsmouth AFC Wimb 2-0 11% 60% 17%
Shrewsbury Fleetwood 1-0 10% 42% 29%
Southend Gillingham 0-1 7% 26% 46%
Wycombe Coventry 1-0 16% 42% 30%

In League Two, the image below provides the similar end-of-season probabilities for the title (left), play-offs (middle) and relegation (right). Notts County are a worrying 67% likely to fall out of the Football League, and Lincoln are clear favourites for the title, sitting as they are six points clear of second placed MK Dons.

ef2-p-all

On New Years Day, form-team Grimsby, on the back of four straight wins, are expected to pull off a shock and inflict Mansfield’s second defeat of the entire season (1-0, 5%). Improving Macclesfield come up against Tranmere, and are expected to lose 1-0 at home (14%).

Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Bury Crewe 1-0 12% 54% 21%
Crawley Colchester 0-1 9% 29% 42%
F Green N’hampton 1-0 13% 42% 29%
Grimsby Mansfield 1-0 5% 43% 29%
Lincoln Port Vale 1-0 18% 71% 11%
Macclesfield Tranmere 0-1 14% 19% 56%
MK Dons Cambridge 1-0 20% 54% 20%
Morecambe Carlisle 1-2 7% 26% 47%
Oldham Notts Co 2-1 10% 72% 11%
Stevenage Newport 0-1 10% 29% 43%
Swindon Exeter 1-1 12% 34% 37%
Yeovil Chelt’ham 1-1 7% 37% 34%
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