FA Cup Round 3 (Jan 4-7)

The magic of the FA Cup! We Scorecasting Economists have our tickets, we’ll be amongst 4,000 Oldham fans at Craven Cottage on Sunday, some of us hoping more than others for an upset.

We’ve put the Model to work to generate forecasts for the weekend’s matches, starting with tonight’s T-time battle between Tranmere and Tottenham. The Premiership high fliers are naturally heavy favourites – the model puts them at 71% to win. But that’s the beauty of the FA Cup, isn’t it? Tranmere don’t have a 0% chance of winning, but instead an 11% chance of winning. They could do it, they just could. However, the cold forecast from the Model is a thumping 4-0 win for Tottenham (9%).

Forecast Win (%)
Friday/Saturday Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Tranmere Tottenham 0-4 9% 11% 71%
Accrington Ipswich 1-1 11% 38% 33%
Aston Villa Swansea 2-1 8% 50% 24%
Bolton Walsall 1-0 17% 46% 26%
B’mouth Brighton 2-1 9% 41% 30%
Brentford Oxford 1-0 10% 60% 17%
Bristol C Hudd’field 1-0 8% 42% 30%
Burnley Barnsley 2-1 9% 47% 26%
C Palace Grimsby 2-0 16% 77% 8%
Chelsea N Forest 3-0 11% 69% 12%
Derby So’ton 1-1 12% 37% 34%
Everton Lincoln 3-0 10% 72% 11%
Fleetwood AFC W 1-0 10% 53% 22%
Gillingham Cardiff 0-1 12% 23% 51%
Man Utd Reading 1-0 16% 71% 11%
Middlesbro Peterboro 1-0 11% 58% 18%
Newcastle Blackburn 1-0 8% 56% 19%
Norwich Portsmouth 1-0 17% 57% 19%
Sheff Wed Luton 2-1 10% 42% 30%
Shrewsbury Stoke 0-1 18% 25% 48%
West Brom Wigan 1-0 8% 65% 14%
West Ham Birmingham 2-1 10% 52% 22%

Saturday sees about the only shock the Model thinks is likely (thus not making it a shock): Bristol City to beat Huddersfield, which the Guardian also thinks is very likely.

Of Sunday’s games, Woking manager Alan Dowson isn’t expecting a shock against Watford, and nor should he: the Model puts Woking’s chances at 9%. A 2-0 win for Watford is at 15%.

At Craven Cottage, a win for mid-table managerless Oldham over Premiership Fulham is at 13%, so again would be a genuine shock in this “tricky tie”. A routine 2-0 win for the hosts is most likely (9%).

Forecast Win (%)
Sunday/Monday Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Fulham Oldham 2-0 9% 67% 13%
Man City Rotherham 6-0 10% 82% 6%
Millwall Hull 1-1 11% 38% 33%
Newport Co Leicester 0-2 14% 10% 73%
Preston Doncaster 2-0 10% 47% 25%
QPR Leeds 0-0 24% 38% 33%
Sheff Utd Barnet 3-0 13% 75% 9%
Woking Watford 0-2 15% 9% 76%
Wolves Liverpool 0-1 16% 21% 54%
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