Lower Leagues, R27 (Jan 5)

Leagues One and Two carry on, for those teams focussing on the league. Three games in League One, and seven in League Two. Three 1-1 draws predicted in League One (13%, 12%, 13%), reflecting three tight games expected where in every case the home team (Charlton, Rochdale and Scunthorpe) are 36% likely to win, and the away team (Sunderland, Burton and Coventry) 35% likely.

Forecast Win (%)
League One Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Charlton Sunderland 1-1 13% 36% 35%
Rochdale Burton 1-1 12% 36% 35%
Scunthorpe Coventry 1-1 13% 36% 35%

Some tight games in League Two also. Can Macclesfield leapfrog Cambridge at the bottom, and escape the relegation zone? The Model thinks there’s about a 12% chance of that happening, assuming the outcomes in the two matches are independent of each other. Cambridge to draw 1-1 (13%) with Stevenage in an East of England derby, and Macclesfield to draw 0-0 (20%) with Swindon.

Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Cambridge Stevenage 1-1 13% 35% 36%
Carlisle Mansfield 1-1 13% 37% 34%
Colchester Notts Co 2-0 16% 59% 18%
Crawley Cheltenham 1-2 5% 30% 41%
Macclesfield Swindon 0-0 20% 33% 38%
Morecambe Crewe 0-0 14% 35% 37%
Yeovil Bury 0-1 7% 31% 40%
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