Championship, R27 (11-12 Jan, 2019)

Who had this guy down as the new manager of Stoke City? Good luck to him. And some respect to the Stoke board for promoting from below, rather than trying a manager who had repeatedly “failed” before at this level or above. Stoke’s first game under new management is away at Brentford. And the Model only gives them a 30% chance of a win, with the most likely outcome a 1-0 (15%) defeat.

Tonight it is Leeds vs Derby. Enough said. The Model says that Derby are favourites, and the most likely scoreline will be 0-1 (9%). That’s good enough for me…

Our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw

 

Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Leeds Derby 0-1 9 28 43
Birmingham Middlesbrough 0-1 16 28 43
Brentford Stoke 1-0 15 41 30
Bristol City Bolton 1-0 22 59 18
Hull Sheffield Wed 1-1 10 34 37
Ipswich Rotherham 0-0 19 38 33
Millwall Blackburn 1-0 15 45 27
Preston Swansea 0-1 9 26 47
Reading Notts Forest 0-1 17 29 42
Sheff Utd QPR 0-1 5 32 39
West Brom Norwich 2-1 9 62 16
Wigan Aston Villa 0-1 11 26 47
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