Championship, R31 (8-10 Feb, 2019)

England’s second city currently lacks a Premier League side (as I wouldn’t include Wolves as a Birmingham based team). Villa are trying to put this right. They are within touching distance of the playoffs, and still have a slim hope of getting promotion. Tonight they host high-flying Sheffield in front of the Holt End. The Model makes Villa favourites (41%) and gives a scoreline forecast of 1-0 (11%).

Forest have dropped away from the promotion picture, sitting in 12th place in the league. They host Brentford, who for the first time in a few seasons are not over-achieving. The Model makes Forest marginal favourites with a 38% chance of a win, and a most likely scoreline of 1-0 (15%).

The rest of our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Aston Villa Sheff Utd 1-0 11 41 32
Blackburn Bristol City 1-1 13 37 36
Bolton Preston 0-1 17 27 46
Derby Hull 2-1 9 47 26
Middlesbrough Leeds 1-0 16 45 28
Notts Forest Brentford 1-0 15 38 34
QPR Birmingham 2-1 8 40 33
Rotherham Wigan 1-0 15 40 32
Sheffield Wed Reading 1-0 12 52 23
Stoke West Brom 0-1 10 31 41
Swansea Millwall 1-0 16 46 27
Norwich Ipswich 2-0 12 69 13
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