League One End of Season (April 4)

Both ends of League One contain plenty to keep fans of the teams involved anxious, and armchair fans absorbed.

While Luton are clear at the top, with a 90% chance of winning the league and a 98% chance of securing promotion, the fight beneath them for the second promotion spot is between Portsmouth, Barnsley and Sunderland. Charlton have an outside chance (1%) of sneaking into the mix, but realistically, it’s a three way battle, and despite Sunderland’s games in hand, the Model sees Portsmouth and Barnsley are more likely to avoid the play-offs.

Beneath, there’s just one play-off spot un-determined; just a couple of weeks ago Coventry were favourites to take it, but they’ve fallen away badly, leaving Doncaster (45%) most likely to grab it.

The bottom of the table though is the most absorbing story. Even twelfth placed Oxford have a 1% chance of being relegated, but more realistically, it is a fight involving everyone from 17th placed Wycombe downwards. Wycombe, Accrington, Southend and Scunthorpe, who currently occupy the four places above the relegation zone, are sinking like lead balloons at just the wrong time, with four defeats in their last five. Southend as such have a 53% chance of going down, a greater chance than second bottom Rochdale, who are rallying and have a 44% chance of relegation.

Bradford look doomed, with a 96% chance of suffering the drop.

Position Probability (%)
team Final Prob (%) Title Promotion Play-offs Relegation
LUT 1 90% 90% 98% 100% 0%
POR 2 35% 4% 39% 100% 0%
BAR 3 38% 4% 38% 100% 0%
SUN 4 39% 2% 23% 100% 0%
CHA 5 75% 0% 1% 100% 0%
PET 6 27% 0% 0% 28% 0%
DON 6 43% 0% 0% 45% 0%
BLA 8 24% 0% 0% 12% 0%
COV 9 24% 0% 0% 9% 0%
FLE 10 24% 0% 0% 5% 0%
BUR 11 34% 0% 0% 2% 0%
OXF 12 31% 0% 0% 0% 1%
PLY 13 18% 0% 0% 0% 2%
ACC 14 12% 0% 0% 0% 13%
GIL 14 15% 0% 0% 0% 4%
BRR 15 16% 0% 0% 0% 8%
SHR 19 12% 0% 0% 0% 21%
WYC 20 11% 0% 0% 0% 28%
WIM 22 13% 0% 0% 0% 40%
SCU 22 13% 0% 0% 0% 38%
SOU 23 17% 0% 0% 0% 53%
ROC 23 16% 0% 0% 0% 44%
WAL 23 17% 0% 0% 0% 53%
BRA 24 72% 0% 0% 0% 96%