End of Season League Two (April 5)

After updating our end-of-season projections for the Premier League, Championship and League One, we now add League Two. At the top, Lincoln are already essentially promoted; an eleven point gap to fourth placed Mansfield may be surmountable, but not realistically, the Model thinks. Congratulations, Lincoln!

Bury’s blip this week on and off the pitch have probably sealed Lincoln’s promotion, but they do still have a 61% chance of joining the Imps come May.

Tranmere’s seven match winning run was unexpectedly ended by Greater Manchester’s other basement dwellers Oldham, but they still harbour hopes of making the top three (11% chance).

Only two teams, Cheltenham and Grimsby, have absolutely no chance of anything at all this season any more.

At the bottom Notts County’s recent revival has given them a shot at avoiding the drop, but they are still at 84% chance (Macclesfield at 61%, Yeovil at 50%).

Position Probability (%)
Team Most Likely Prob (%) Title Promotion Play-offs Relegation
LIN 1 86% 86% 100% 100% 0%
MKD 2 48% 11% 85% 100% 0%
BUR 3 37% 2% 61% 100% 0%
MAN 4 36% 1% 41% 100% 0%
TRA 5 40% 0% 11% 97% 0%
EXE 6 29% 0% 2% 68% 0%
FGR 7 24% 0% 0% 54% 0%
COL 8 18% 0% 0% 29% 0%
NEW 8 15% 0% 0% 21% 0%
CAR 10 18% 0% 0% 11% 0%
SWI 10 16% 0% 0% 12% 0%
OLD 12 16% 0% 0% 6% 0%
CRE 13 17% 0% 0% 1% 0%
STE 14 18% 0% 0% 1% 0%
NOR 15 21% 0% 0% 1% 0%
CHE 16 24% 0% 0% 0% 0%
GRI 17 31% 0% 0% 0% 0%
CAM 18 26% 0% 0% 0% 1%
MOR 19 23% 0% 0% 0% 1%
CRA 19 25% 0% 0% 0% 2%
POR 21 25% 0% 0% 0% 2%
YEO 22 36% 0% 0% 0% 50%
MAC 23 34% 0% 0% 0% 61%
NOT 24 53% 0% 0% 0% 84%
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