League One, R41 (April 6-7)

Much remains to be settled in League One; not least, 13 teams still need to worry a little bit about being relegated, and no team has absolutely nothing to play for… yet.

The team with the smallest probability (1%), Oxford United, can exercise that small nagging doubt by winning 1-0 at 21st place Walsall (7%), thus compounding the Midlanders’ own relegation worries (53%). Similarly recovering Wimbledon (40% chance of relegation, down from 79% in late March) look set to compound free-falling Accrington’s worries (13% of the drop) with a 1-0 win (13%).

Seemingly doomed Bradford (96% chance of the drop) entertain play-off hopefuls (45%) and fellow Yorkshiremen Doncaster, and The Model expects the Rovers to prevail 2-1 (10%).

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Sat WIM ACC 1-0 13% 51% 24%
Sat BRA DON 1-2 10% 27% 47%
Sat BUR BAR 0-1 16% 30% 43%
Sat FLE SOU 1-0 13% 57% 19%
Sat LUT BLA 1-0 20% 65% 15%
Sat PET GIL 2-1 10% 42% 30%
Sat PLY CHA 0-1 14% 30% 42%
Sat ROC SUN 0-1 10% 20% 56%
Sat SHR SCU 1-0 12% 56% 20%
Sat WAL OXF 0-1 7% 32% 40%
Sat WYC POR 1-2 10% 23% 51%
Sun COV BRI 1-0 18% 42% 31%
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