Lower Leagues, R34 (Feb 23)

There would’ve been fervent local interest anyhow in the derby match taking place at Gigg Lane, Bury, this weekend. In the shifting sands of Greater Manchester (much) lesser derbies, this is a relatively regular fixture. This marks the fourth consecutive season of Bury-Oldham derbies, and the sixth season out of eight they’ve occurred.

Add into the mixer Mr Scholes and his friendly rivalry with Class of ’92 mates the Nevilles and Chris Casper, add in Bury’s stellar form as they challenge for an immediate return to League One, and all is set for a match Sky Sports is sure to send a reporter to cover tomorrow afternoon.

For what it’s worth, The Model thinks Bury will prevail 2-1 (7%), and they are overwhelming favourites (56% to win) given Oldham’s mid-table malaise, and given that the Scholes honeymoon appears to already be over.

Elsewhere, Luton to march on (1-0, 22% vs Coventry), Barnsley to open up a gap over seriously flagging Pompey (0-1, 9%).

Forecast Win (%)
League One Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Accrington Southend 1-0 11% 46% 28%
AFC Wimb Charlton 0-1 19% 32% 41%
Blackpool Oxford 1-0 19% 57% 20%
Bristol R Sunderland 0-1 16% 32% 40%
Burton Fleetwood 1-0 12% 46% 27%
Luton Coventry 1-0 22% 65% 15%
Peterboro Shrewsbury 2-1 10% 45% 28%
Plymouth Rochdale 2-1 7% 54% 21%
Portsmouth Barnsley 0-1 9% 33% 40%
Scunthorpe Doncaster 1-2 9% 30% 43%
Walsall Bradford 1-1 10% 36% 36%
Wycombe Gillingham 1-0 10% 48% 26%

 

Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Bury Oldham 2-1 7% 56% 20%
Cheltenham Port Vale 1-0 16% 53% 22%
Colchester Carlisle 2-1 10% 42% 31%
Crawley Macclesfield 1-0 14% 42% 31%
Crewe Exeter 1-0 10% 38% 35%
Mansfield F Green 1-0 16% 45% 28%
MK Dons Newport 1-0 11% 46% 27%
Morecambe Lincoln 0-2 10% 27% 46%
Stevenage N’hampton 1-0 11% 39% 33%
Swindon Grimsby 1-0 15% 43% 29%
Tranmere Notts Co 1-0 12% 60% 18%
Yeovil Cambridge 1-0 19% 40% 33%
Advertisements

Lower League Catch Up (19 Feb edition)

More midweek catch-up in the lower leagues. Five 1-0 home wins tonight in League One according to The Model, and all do genuinely look like home bankers.

Forecast Win (%)
League One Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Accrington Oxford 1-0 14% 42% 30%
Barnsley Burton 1-0 17% 59% 18%
Portsmouth Bristol R 1-0 16% 50% 24%
Rochdale AFC Wim 1-0 12% 42% 31%
Sunderland Gillingham 1-0 12% 60% 18%

In League Two the games come thick and fast for Paul Scholes’s Oldham. The Model doesn’t think this will affect them as they face Morecambe at Boundary Park. Another crunch match for improving Notts County too. Can they get off the bottom of the Football League?

Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Cheltenham Cambridge U 1-0 13% 45% 28%
Notts Co Newport Co 0-1 11% 34% 38%
Oldham Morecambe 2-0 11% 59% 18%
Port Vale Tranmere 0-1 18% 33% 39%

Champions League R16 L1 (b) (19-20 Feb)

Second week of the much dragged out Champions League Round of 16 this week, and of the English contenders it’s the turn of Liverpool and Man City.

Our predictions are in the table below:

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Liverpool B Munich 2-1 10% 55% 21%
Lyon Barcelona 0-1 12% 30% 43%
Atl Madrid Juventus 0-1 16% 34% 38%
Schalke Man City 0-1 17% 18% 59%

The forecasts of Jean-Louis Foulley for the same matches are:

    Win %
Foulley forecasts Score P(R) P(H) P(A)
Lyon Barcelona 0-2 10% 17% 62%
Liverpool Bayern Munich 1-1 11% 48% 28 %
Atl Madrid Juventus 1-1 11% 41% 34%
Schalke Man City 0-1 11% 19% 60%

Our forecasts are almost exactly identical for Schalke vs Man City, but otherwise quite different. We shall see how the two nights turn out!

FA Cup Round 5 (Feb 15-18)

The FA Cup Fifth Round happens this weekend. The Model doesn’t think there’s going to be any upsets.

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
QPR Watford 0-1 25% 24% 50%
AFC Wim Millwall 1-2 5% 24% 51%
Brighton Derby 1-0 12% 50% 24%
Newport Co Man City 0-2 13% 6% 83%
Bristol C Wolves 0-1 18% 31% 41%
Doncaster C Palace 0-1 10% 24% 51%
Swansea Brentford 2-0 10% 40% 32%
Chelsea Man Utd 1-0 10% 43% 30%

Lower Leagues, R33 (Feb 15-16)

League Two continues to attract more column inches, television minutes and internet bandwidth with the addition of not one, but two former England internationals in just a few months this season. Robbie Savage and Crewe boss David Artell have both taken the time today to point out how both men have much more to lose than gain from their managerial punts.  Artell’s Crewe got a 3-3 draw at Campbell’s Macclesfield last weekend, and this weekend they come face to face with Scholes’s Oldham. The Model fancies a 2-1 Oldham win – already a revised forecast relative to before Scholes had managed a match, reflecting the five-goal opening match of Scholes’s reign in the week.

In League One, sleeping giants Sunderland entertain the even more deeply slumbering Accrington Stanley in the North East tonight, and The Model expects them to shade that one 1-0 (21%).

Forecast Win (%)
League One Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Barnsley Wycombe 1-0 15% 61% 17%
Bradford Plymouth 2-1 7% 41% 31%
Charlton Blackpool 1-0 16% 42% 31%
Coventry Walsall 1-0 13% 50% 24%
Doncaster Bristol R 2-1 10% 55% 21%
Fleetwood Luton 0-1 11% 27% 47%
Gillingham Scunthorpe 2-1 7% 41% 31%
Oxford Peterboro 1-0 7% 43% 30%
Shrewsbury Burton 1-0 11% 42% 31%
Southend Portsmouth 0-1 15% 31% 42%
Sunderland Accrington 1-0 21% 61% 17%

 

Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Cambridge Tranmere 1-0 7% 37% 35%
Carlisle MK Dons 1-0 8% 48% 26%
Exeter Bury 1-1 9% 36% 36%
F Green Yeovil 1-0 15% 57% 19%
Grimsby Cheltenham 1-0 10% 45% 28%
Lincoln Stevenage 1-0 14% 59% 18%
Macc T Colchester 0-1 10% 34% 39%
Newport Swindon 1-0 10% 40% 32%
N’hampton Crawley 1-0 12% 54% 21%
Notts Co Mansfield 0-1 10% 23% 52%
Oldham Crewe 2-1 10% 49% 25%
Port Vale Morecambe 1-0 17% 46% 27%

Lower Leagues, catch-up (Feb 12)

Apparently there are other matches taking place tonight than Paul Scholes’s first match as Oldham manager. Here are our forecasts for those other matches, starting in League One, with League Two forecasts below. Sunderland have fallen 11 points behind leaders Luton, but tonight they play one of their three games in hand. With 21% likelihood they will narrowly beat Blackpool 1-0 tonight. Let’s hope that not too many Blackpool fans are making the journey home at full time by public transport.

Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Doncaster Southend 2-1 8% 58% 19%
Sunderland Blackpool 1-0 21% 49% 25%
Walsall AFC Wim 1-0 17% 44% 29%

Similarly, let’s hope there aren’t any Yeovil fans trying to get back to the West Country after their visit to Paul Scholes’s Oldham…

Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Crewe Carlisle 1-2 9% 34% 38%
Newport MK Dons 1-0 8% 44% 29%
Oldham Yeovil 1-0 17% 55% 21%
Swindon F Green 1-1 13% 35% 37%

Champions League R16 L1 (a) (12-13 Feb)

The Champions League returns to dominate midweek evenings for the next few weeks. A rejuvenated Manchester United face a less than bouyant PSG this evening, a match-up that looked very tricky for United when it was drawn out of the hat. As it is, now The Model expects a 2-1 Man United win (9%), and there’s a 53% chance they win. The away goal will irritate United, but The Model reckons there’s an 18% chance they’ll win without conceding any away goals. Tottenham will also win 2-1 (7%), and The Model thinks there’s a 13% chance they’ll win without conceding an away goal.

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Man Utd Paris St-G. 2-1 9% 53% 22%
Roma Porto 2-1 7% 39% 34%
Ajax Real Madrid 1-2 8% 34% 38%
Tottenham B Dortmund 2-1 7% 57% 20%

As with our forecasts at the culmination of the Group Stage, we are going head to head with Jean-Louis Foulley, of the Université de Montpellier. We didn’t do so well last time round, so we’re hoping to do better this week. Here are his forecasts:

  Win %
Foulley forecasts Score P(R) P(H) P(A)
Roma Porto 1-1 12% 44% 30%
Man Utd PSG 1-0 11% 45% 30%
Tottenham Dortmund 1-0 11% 55% 22%
Ajax Real Madrid 0-1 11% 24% 52%