Premier League, R27 (22-24 Feb)

Unusually, there are two Premier League fixtures on a Friday evening.

Cardiff welcome Watford in one of these games. Both teams are on good form, having won their last two each in all competitions. The Model gives the away side the edge, with a 43% chance of a Watford victory and the most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%).

The other fixture this evening is an all-London derby: East-side meets West-side. West Ham are unsurprisingly favourites to beat Fulham at their bargain-basement home in Stratford, with a 56% chance of a win, and the most likely outcome being 1-0 (10%).

With Man City in Carabao Cup Final action, Liverpool have the chance to pile on some pressure. But to do so they must overcome Ole’s Utd at Old Trafford. The Model says this might be too difficult a task, and gives Man Utd the edge, with a 39% chance of winning. The most likely outcome is 1-0 (8%).

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 27 of the Premier League:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Arsenal Southampton 2-0 10 60 17
Bournemouth Wolves 0-1 8 34 39
Burnley Spurs 1-2 10 25 49
Cardiff Watford 0-1 14 30 43
Leicester Crystal Palace 1-0 13 40 33
Manchester Utd Liverpool 1-0 8 39 33
Newcastle Huddersfield 1-0 23 63 16
West Ham Fulham 1-0 10 56 20
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Championship Catch-Up R29 (19-20 Feb)

There are two Championship fixtures over the next two evenings, starting with QPR v West Brom tonight. QPR are on a run of 5 straight league defeats, and haven’t won in 7. This means they have dropped well out of any play-off picture. West Brom, on the other hand, could move to within a point of the automatic promotion places with a win tonight. The Model gives the away team a 43% chance of a win, and a most likely scoreline of 1-2 (8%).

Derby welcome Millwall to Pride Park tomorrow. The Rams have two games in hand on some of those around them, and need to take advantage to get back into the play-offs. The Model gives them a better than even chance of a win, 51%, and the most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%).

Our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
QPR West Brom 1-2 8 30 43
Derby Millwall 1-0 13 51 24

Championship, R33 (16-17 Feb, 2019)

Despite the world’s attention being on the FA cup this weekend, there are still Championship fixtures taking place (involving generally mediocre teams).

Ipswich are as good as relegated already, and have been for a couple of months now. Today the Tractor Boys welcome Stoke to Portman Road. Do us a favour and smash them please, Ipswich! Alas, the Model is more objective, and reckons Ipswich will struggle as ever this season, with only a 32% chance of victory (though I bet most fans would snap your hand off at that), and a most likely scoreline of 0-1 (21%).

The other two sides in the drop zone are also playing today. Both are at home and desperate for a win. Bolton only have a 24% chance against Norwich, whereas Rotherham have a 35% chance of beating the Owls.

Our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Aston Villa West Brom 1-1 9 36 36
Bolton Norwich 0-1 16 24 50
Ipswich Stoke 0-1 21 32 40
Preston Notts Forest 1-0 17 48 26
Rotherham Sheffield Wed 0-1 10 35 38
Sheff Utd Reading 2-0 14 59 18
Blackburn Middlesbrough 0-0 14 36 36

Championship, R32 (12-13 Feb, 2019)

Our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Birmingham Bolton 1-0 15 65 14
Bristol City QPR 1-0 13 55 21
Hull Rotherham 1-0 13 59 18
Millwall Sheffield Wed 1-0 13 45 28
West Brom Notts Forest 1-0 11 53 22
Brentford Aston Villa 1-0 11 47 26
Ipswich Derby 0-1 16 23 52
Leeds Swansea 1-0 11 45 28
Preston Norwich 1-1 12 36 36
Reading Blackburn 1-0 9 38 34
Sheff Utd Middlesbrough 1-0 14 44 29
Wigan Stoke 1-0 14 41 31

Premier League, R26 (9-11 Feb)

The standout fixture this weekend sees Manchester City take on a Higuaín-rejuvenated Chelsea. The Model makes Man City massive favourites at home, with a 59% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 (11%).

Spurs are still in the title hunt for sure, but to stay in it they have to put teams like Leicester away. The Model says they probably will, with a 63% chance of beating the Foxes and a forecast scoreline of 2-0 (10%).

Can Liverpool still win the title? This seems like a strange question to ask of a team who are level on equal points at the top of the table with a game in hand. But they are giving away ground on their rivals now, and momentum on the run-in is everything. The Model however makes them heavy favourites to get back to winning ways this weekend, with a 68% chance of beating Bournemouth at Anfield. The most likely outcome in this fixture is 3-0 (13%).

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 26 of the Premier League:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Brighton Burnley 1-0 15 48 26
Crystal Palace West Ham 1-0 11 48 26
Fulham Manchester Utd 1-2 10 21 55
Huddersfield Arsenal 0-1 15 20 56
Liverpool Bournemouth 3-0 13 68 13
Southampton Cardiff 1-0 14 57 20
Watford Everton 1-0 10 49 25
Manchester City Chelsea 2-0 11 59 18
Spurs Leicester 2-0 10 63 16
Wolves Newcastle 1-0 17 54 22

Championship, R31 (8-10 Feb, 2019)

England’s second city currently lacks a Premier League side (as I wouldn’t include Wolves as a Birmingham based team). Villa are trying to put this right. They are within touching distance of the playoffs, and still have a slim hope of getting promotion. Tonight they host high-flying Sheffield in front of the Holt End. The Model makes Villa favourites (41%) and gives a scoreline forecast of 1-0 (11%).

Forest have dropped away from the promotion picture, sitting in 12th place in the league. They host Brentford, who for the first time in a few seasons are not over-achieving. The Model makes Forest marginal favourites with a 38% chance of a win, and a most likely scoreline of 1-0 (15%).

The rest of our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Aston Villa Sheff Utd 1-0 11 41 32
Blackburn Bristol City 1-1 13 37 36
Bolton Preston 0-1 17 27 46
Derby Hull 2-1 9 47 26
Middlesbrough Leeds 1-0 16 45 28
Notts Forest Brentford 1-0 15 38 34
QPR Birmingham 2-1 8 40 33
Rotherham Wigan 1-0 15 40 32
Sheffield Wed Reading 1-0 12 52 23
Stoke West Brom 0-1 10 31 41
Swansea Millwall 1-0 16 46 27
Norwich Ipswich 2-0 12 69 13

Championship, R30 (1-2 Feb, 2019)

It’s not good news for Derby fans tonight. The Model says their trip to Lancashire will be fruitless, as Preston are favourites in this one. The Model says Preston have a 39% chance of winning, and a forecast scoreline of 1-0 (11%).

Derby are forecast to lose, so does it really matter what the scores might be in the other Championship games. Seriously … who cares … if Derby are likely to lose ….

If you do care, the rest of our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Preston Derby 1-0 11 39 33
Birmingham Notts Forest 1-0 14 44 29
Brentford Blackburn 1-0 15 46 27
Bristol City Swansea 1-0 15 47 26
Hull Stoke 1-0 14 49 25
Ipswich Sheffield Wed 0-1 12 30 42
Leeds Norwich 2-1 8 40 32
Millwall Rotherham 1-0 18 58 19
Reading Aston Villa 0-1 12 33 39
Sheff Utd Bolton 1-0 20 65 15
West Brom Middlesbrough 1-0 13 49 25
Wigan QPR 0-1 9 34 38