We have moved to a more “official” University of Reading blog

Dear Readers,

This is to let you know that from today we will be posting our scoreline forecasts at:

http://blogs.reading.ac.uk/econscorecast/

Also, keep an eye out for us on a certain weekly UK football show to be broadcast on 20th April.

Best wishes,

Scorecasting Economists

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Championship, R41 (9-10 Apr, 2019)

There are some massive games on tonight. Even so, all eyes will be on Ewood Park, where Derby County take on their hosts Blackburn Rovers. The Rams currently sit in 7th, and have their legions of fans retain hope that this could be the year they return to where they belong, the top table of English football. The Model also seems to appreciate the Derby Pride, and is giving them a meagre advantage over Blackburn, with a 39% chance of a win. The most likely scoreline outcome is 0-1 (9%). Come on you RAMS!!! (The Model isn’t biased – its human handlers surely are)

The rest of our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

    • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
    • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Blackburn Derby 0-1 9 34 39
Bolton Middlesbro 0-1 23 28 45
Bristol City West Brom 2-1 7 41 32
Preston Leeds 1-0 11 42 31
Sheffield Wed Notts Forest 1-0 12 45 28
Swansea Stoke 1-0 19 48 26
Birmingham Sheff Utd 1-2 9 29 44
Brentford Ipswich 1-0 12 62 16
Hull Wigan 1-0 10 57 20
Millwall QPR 1-0 12 55 21
Norwich Reading 2-0 11 67 14
Rotherham Aston Villa 0-1 11 28 46

Championship, R40 (6 Apr, 2019)

The true and greatest “Championship” in England and Wales begins today, so this Scorecasting Economist is too distracted to say much about the footballing title-name rip-off version.

Anyway… the Model’s latest April edition end of season league table forecasts suggests that most teams have something to play for. Only Brentford, Birmingham, Stoke, Blackburn and QPR, plus relegated Ipswich, might as well finish their seasons early and start focusing on the next Championship/L1 campaign.

Our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Birmingham Leeds 0-1 9 31 42
Blackburn Stoke 1-0 19 40 33
Bolton Ipswich 1-0 18 44 29
Brentford Derby 1-0 12 44 29
Bristol City Wigan 1-0 14 60 17
Hull Reading 2-0 12 51 24
Millwall West Brom 1-2 10 29 44
Norwich QPR 2-0 11 68 13
Preston Sheff Utd 1-0 12 38 35
Rotherham Notts Forest 0-1 15 31 41
Sheffield Wed Aston Villa 1-0 10 40 32
Swansea Middlesbrough 1-0 13 45 28

End of Season League Table Forecasts (April edition)

We have run the simulations and updated our probabilistic forecasts of the final Premier League and Championship tables in 2019 (below — also see here for comparison with previous end of season forecasts).

Man City are now clear title favourites, 79% to Liverpools 21%.

Man Utd have a forecast 32% likelihood of making the top 4 and qualifying for the Champions League (that way). Chelsea (44%), Arsenal (42%) and Spurs (82%) are all ahead in the competition for a top 4 spot.

Fulham and Huddersfield are already relegated. Cardiff are now most likely to join them in the Championship next season at 63%. Burnley however ares till in significant danger, with a 22% chance of going down.


These forecasts incorporate all information from all matches up to 4th April.

Most likely final position and chances of: winning the title, Champions League qualification, relegation, automatic promotion and making at least the playoffs.


 

Most likely position Likelihood of… (%)
Aug April Title CL Rel
1 1 Man City 79.2 100 0
2 2 Liverpool 20.8 100 0
3 3 Tottenham 0 81.8 0
6 5 Chelsea 0 44.3 0
2 6 Man Utd 0 31.7 0
6 6 Arsenal 0 42.2 0
10 7 Wolves 0 0 0
17 8 Watford 0 0 0
12 9 Everton 0 0 0
7 10 Leicester 0 0 0
16 11 West Ham 0 0 0
15 12 B’mouth 0 0 0.4
14 13 C Palace 0 0 0.1
14 13 Newcastle 0 0 1.1
18 15 Brighton 0 0 4.9
16 16 S’ton 0 0 8.9
11 17 Burnley 0 0 21.9
7 18 Cardiff 0 0 62.7
9 19 Fulham 0 0 100
20 20 Hudd 0 0 100

Premier League, R33 (5-8 Apr)

There are 6 Premier League games this weekend. While not having been a memorable season in terms of quality, at least we are entering the final stages with many teams still having something significant to play for. Not least, the title is still undecided, even if it is no longer in Liverpool’s hands. To put the pressure back on Manchester City, who are in FA Cup action this weekend, Liverpool must come away from Southampton with a win tonight. Fortunately for them, the Scorecasting Model gives the Reds a 60% chance of doing just that, and the most likely outcome is 0-1 (21%).

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 33 of the Premier League:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Southampton Liverpool 0-1 21 18 60
Bournemouth Burnley 2-1 9 45 29
Huddersfield Leicester 0-1 17 23 51
Newcastle Crystal Palace 1-0 11 43 30
Everton Arsenal 1-2 8 29 44
Chelsea West Ham 1-0 14 62 16

Premier League, R27&31&33 (2-3 Apr)

There is plenty of interest both at the top and bottom of the league in tonight’s and tomorrow’s fixtures. These are “games-in-hand” for some teams. Man City have the opportunity to cash in and move ahead of Liverpool (permanently?) by hosting Cardiff, who pushed Chelsea hard at the weekend. City away however are a very different proposition for the Bluebirds. The Model thinks Cardiff will get hammered, and the most likely outcome is 4-0 (13%).

Fulham will be relegated if they lose tonight, and effectively relegated if they don’t win, proving that, despite strong correlation, money isn’t all that is needed to build a successful Premier League squad. The Model thinks this is highly likely to happen (cue footage of fans crying, who must have been in chronic denial of what was inevitable for months), with Fulham only given a 14% chance of a win away at Watford. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%)

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s midweek forecasts for the Premier League:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Watford Fulham 1-0 14 66 14
Wolves Manchester Utd 0-1 15 30 42
Chelsea Brighton 1-0 15 62 17
Manchester City Cardiff 4-0 13 81 7
Spurs Crystal Palace 1-0 12 56 20

Championship Midweek Catch-up, R29 & R33 (2 Apr, 2019)

There are two Championship games on Tuesday night. Middlesbrough host Bristol City and Swansea host Brentford. The Model suggests both of these fixtures should be reasonably close, and in both the most likely outcome is 1-0, to the home side.

The details of our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Middlesbrough Bristol City 1-0 16 42 31
Swansea Brentford 1-0 12 39 33