Championship, R20 (7-8 Dec, 2018)

After 7 years in the Premier League, you would think Swansea would be well-placed to bounce straight back after relegation. But currently they sit in the bottom half of the table (13th) and have only won 7 of their first 20 games. The Swans travel to Brentford this weekend, who are perhaps similarly under-performing compared to pre-season expectations. The Model suggests Swansea could slip even further down the table, with a 1-0 (15%) defeat on the cards.

Our local club, Reading F.C., sit perched above the drop zone as we head towards the mid-point of the season. They welcome Sheffield Utd to the Madejski tomorrow evening, who themselves are on a dip in form. The Model forecasts an even game, and 1-1 (12%) is the most likely outcome.

The rest of our Championship forecasts are in the the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
West Brom Aston Villa 2-1 10 43 29
Birmingham Bristol City 1-0 10 49 24
Brentford Swansea 1-0 15 45 27
Leeds QPR 1-0 12 53 21
Middlesbrough Blackburn 1-0 16 53 21
Millwall Hull 1-0 11 43 28
Norwich Bolton 1-0 20 66 13
Notts Forest Preston 1-0 15 49 24
Reading Sheff Utd 1-1 12 35 36
Sheffield Wed Rotherham 2-0 11 42 29
Stoke Ipswich 1-0 19 59 17
Wigan Derby 0-1 11 32 39

 

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Championship, R19 (1-3 Dec, 2018)

The Derby County fans had fun on Wednesday night, despite seeing their side contrive to lose against 10-man Stoke. That fun was had at the expense of former Rams manager, player and native Gary Rowett, now manager of Stoke. He was greeted with hundreds of snakes, chucked around the stands by gleeful and venomous Derby supporters. The Rams need to get back down to business this weekend. The Model has them down as likely winners at home to Swansea (50%), with a forecast scoreline of 1-0 (17%).

Remarkably the Venky’s still own and run Blackburn Rovers, but you don’t hear much about them any more. They are now achieving Championship mediocrity, and look unlikely to get relegated or threaten the playoffs. They face Sheffield Wednesday this weekend at home, and the Model at least suggests Rovers fans should have something to cheer about, with a 43% chance of victory, and a forecast scoreline of 2-1 (9%).

The rest of our Championship forecasts are in the the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Birmingham Preston 1-0 12 41 30
Blackburn Sheffield Wed 2-1 9 43 29
Bolton Wigan 0-1 13 31 41
Derby Swansea 1-0 17 50 23
Middlesbrough Aston Villa 1-0 14 49 24
Norwich Rotherham 1-0 20 61 16
Notts Forest Ipswich 1-0 17 60 17
QPR Hull 1-0 11 52 22
Reading Stoke 0-1 15 32 39
Sheff Utd Leeds 1-1 12 38 33
West Brom Brentford 2-1 9 52 22
Bristol City Millwall 2-1 9 43 29

 

Championship, R19 (27-28 Nov, 2018)

The Scorecasting Model suggests this midweek round of Championship fixtures will be a lean one in terms of goals scored. According to the Model’s forecast scorelines, just 13 goals will be scored in the 12 matches.

One match which is forecast to finish goalless (13%) takes place at the Bet365 stadium, as Stoke host Derby on Wednesday night. The Rams look like promotion contenders, but their form has been too inconsistent of late, and they are just clinging on to a playoff place for now.

Swansea v West Brom was a Premier League fixture last season, with Swansea taking 4 points out of 6 from those games. Both sides are there or thereabouts in terms of the promotion picture this season, and the Model suggests it will be tough to find a winner this time around, with the forecast scoreline 1-1 (13%).

The rest of our Championship forecasts are in the the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw

 

Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Brentford Sheff Utd 1-0 13 41 31
Hull Norwich 0-1 11 29 43
Leeds Reading 1-0 12 58 18
Preston Middlesbrough 0-0 20 35 36
Rotherham QPR 0-0 18 37 34
Sheffield Wed Bolton 1-0 12 49 24
Aston Villa Notts Forest 1-0 17 42 30
Ipswich Bristol City 1-1 12 37 34
Millwall Birmingham 1-1 11 38 33
Stoke Derby 0-0 13 37 34
Swansea West Brom 1-1 13 33 38
Wigan Blackburn 1-1 13 38 33

Championship, R18 (23-25 Nov, 2018)

Birmingham City have experienced Championship mediocrity for the past 7 seasons, never really threatening promotion since dropping into the League in 2011. Local rivals Aston Villa sit just above them in the table this season. The Second City derby on Sunday at Villa park is sure to have drama, being one of the fiercest rivalries in England. The Model suggests Villa are clear favourites, and forecasts a scoreline of 2-0 (15%).

It is currently Norwich City’s turn to lead the Championship this season. No team yet has built up any kind of margin over the chasing pack. The Canaries face a difficult trip to Swansea this weekend, and therefore you wouldn’t bet on a new side topping the table by Monday. The Model forecasts a 1-0 (21%) win to the Swans.

The rest of our Championship forecasts are in the the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Ipswich West Brom 0-1 11 26 47
Brentford Middlesbrough 1-1 13 38 33
Hull Notts Forest 0-1 11 32 39
Leeds Bristol City 2-1 7 54 21
Millwall Bolton 1-0 18 54 21
Preston Blackburn 1-0 19 41 31
Rotherham Sheff Utd 0-1 19 31 41
Sheffield Wed Derby 0-1 9 31 40
Stoke QPR 1-0 18 47 26
Swansea Norwich 1-0 21 41 31
Wigan Reading 2-1 10 45 27
Aston Villa Birmingham 2-0 15 43 29

 

Championship, R17 (9-11 Nov, 2018)

Are there any landmarks in Sheffield? Perhaps not the prettiest city, but it still hosts two big football league clubs, and therefore has a famous local derby. The Steel City derby game takes place tonight. The home side, Sheffield Utd, are having the better season, and The Model’s forecast reflects this: 2-1 (8%).

Norwich have snuck up to 2nd place in the Championship. This weekend they welcome Millwall to Carrow road. The Model fancies that Canaries can defeat Lions, and the forecast scoreline is 1-0 (13%).

The rest of our Championship forecasts are in the the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Sheff Utd Sheffield Wed 2-1 8 49 24
Birmingham Hull 1-0 23 51 23
Blackburn Rotherham 1-0 21 51 22
Bolton Swansea 0-1 23 27 45
Bristol City Preston 2-1 10 41 30
Derby Aston Villa 2-1 9 50 23
Middlesbrough Wigan 1-0 20 56 19
Norwich Millwall 1-0 13 52 22
Notts Forest Stoke 1-0 17 41 30
QPR Brentford 0-0 14 36 35
Reading Ipswich 1-0 15 45 27
West Brom Leeds 2-1 7 41 30

Championship, R16 (2-4 Nov, 2018)

Rotherham are surely meeting preseason expectations, sitting just above the relegation zone with 14 points from the first 15 matches. They are unbeaten in their last 3 games, but haven’t won in 8. The Model suggests one of those records will go this weekend, predicting a 0-1 (20%) defeat to visitors Swansea.

Derby’s form has been indifferent so far this season, never really getting a run going, and being distracted by their exploits in the Carabao Cup. Birmingham are the visitors to Pride Park this weekend. The Model clearly likes Derby’s squad depth since it forecasts a win to the Rams, 1-0 (12%), despite their midweek exploits.

The rest of our Championship forecasts are in the the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Aston Villa Bolton 1-0 11 54 21
Blackburn QPR 1-0 18 44 28
Brentford Millwall 2-1 9 43 29
Derby Birmingham 1-0 12 47 26
Hull West Brom 0-1 12 26 46
Ipswich Preston 1-1 12 33 38
Notts Forest Sheff Utd 2-1 9 40 32
Reading Bristol City 1-1 11 34 37
Rotherham Swansea 0-1 20 30 41
Sheffield Wed Norwich 1-1 11 36 35
Stoke Middlesbrough 0-0 23 38 33
Wigan Leeds 1-1 11 33 38

 

Championship, R15 (26-27 Oct, 2018)

QPR kick the weekend off at home to Aston Villa. Both sides have only fairly recently traded Premier League glamour for middling the Championship table, with neither realistic candidates to return to the “Big Time”. The Model forecasts a  tight affair, with a 1-0 home win the most likely outcome.

Reading are having a glum season. They seem to be suffering in the 2nd half of games, straight after the break, leading to speculation that something is going wrong within the dressing room. The Model forecasts that Swansea will beat Reading 1-0 (23%) on Saturday. With the goal sure to come in the 1st half now that Scorecasting Economists have also highlighted Reading’s tendency to concede in the 2nd half of games…

The rest of our Championship forecasts are in the the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
QPR Aston Villa 1-0 8 40 32
Middlesbrough Derby 1-0 24 42 30
Birmingham Sheffield Wed 1-0 20 43 29
Bolton Hull 0-0 29 39 33
Bristol City Stoke 1-0 15 41 31
Millwall Ipswich 1-0 21 47 26
Norwich Brentford 1-0 6 44 28
Preston Rotherham 2-0 14 50 23
Sheff Utd Wigan 1-0 14 47 25
Swansea Reading 1-0 23 50 23
West Brom Blackburn 2-0 12 52 22
Leeds Notts Forest 1-0 18 44 28