Championship Catch-Up R29 (19-20 Feb)

There are two Championship fixtures over the next two evenings, starting with QPR v West Brom tonight. QPR are on a run of 5 straight league defeats, and haven’t won in 7. This means they have dropped well out of any play-off picture. West Brom, on the other hand, could move to within a point of the automatic promotion places with a win tonight. The Model gives the away team a 43% chance of a win, and a most likely scoreline of 1-2 (8%).

Derby welcome Millwall to Pride Park tomorrow. The Rams have two games in hand on some of those around them, and need to take advantage to get back into the play-offs. The Model gives them a better than even chance of a win, 51%, and the most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%).

Our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
QPR West Brom 1-2 8 30 43
Derby Millwall 1-0 13 51 24
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Championship, R33 (16-17 Feb, 2019)

Despite the world’s attention being on the FA cup this weekend, there are still Championship fixtures taking place (involving generally mediocre teams).

Ipswich are as good as relegated already, and have been for a couple of months now. Today the Tractor Boys welcome Stoke to Portman Road. Do us a favour and smash them please, Ipswich! Alas, the Model is more objective, and reckons Ipswich will struggle as ever this season, with only a 32% chance of victory (though I bet most fans would snap your hand off at that), and a most likely scoreline of 0-1 (21%).

The other two sides in the drop zone are also playing today. Both are at home and desperate for a win. Bolton only have a 24% chance against Norwich, whereas Rotherham have a 35% chance of beating the Owls.

Our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Aston Villa West Brom 1-1 9 36 36
Bolton Norwich 0-1 16 24 50
Ipswich Stoke 0-1 21 32 40
Preston Notts Forest 1-0 17 48 26
Rotherham Sheffield Wed 0-1 10 35 38
Sheff Utd Reading 2-0 14 59 18
Blackburn Middlesbrough 0-0 14 36 36

Championship, R32 (12-13 Feb, 2019)

Our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Birmingham Bolton 1-0 15 65 14
Bristol City QPR 1-0 13 55 21
Hull Rotherham 1-0 13 59 18
Millwall Sheffield Wed 1-0 13 45 28
West Brom Notts Forest 1-0 11 53 22
Brentford Aston Villa 1-0 11 47 26
Ipswich Derby 0-1 16 23 52
Leeds Swansea 1-0 11 45 28
Preston Norwich 1-1 12 36 36
Reading Blackburn 1-0 9 38 34
Sheff Utd Middlesbrough 1-0 14 44 29
Wigan Stoke 1-0 14 41 31

Championship, R31 (8-10 Feb, 2019)

England’s second city currently lacks a Premier League side (as I wouldn’t include Wolves as a Birmingham based team). Villa are trying to put this right. They are within touching distance of the playoffs, and still have a slim hope of getting promotion. Tonight they host high-flying Sheffield in front of the Holt End. The Model makes Villa favourites (41%) and gives a scoreline forecast of 1-0 (11%).

Forest have dropped away from the promotion picture, sitting in 12th place in the league. They host Brentford, who for the first time in a few seasons are not over-achieving. The Model makes Forest marginal favourites with a 38% chance of a win, and a most likely scoreline of 1-0 (15%).

The rest of our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Aston Villa Sheff Utd 1-0 11 41 32
Blackburn Bristol City 1-1 13 37 36
Bolton Preston 0-1 17 27 46
Derby Hull 2-1 9 47 26
Middlesbrough Leeds 1-0 16 45 28
Notts Forest Brentford 1-0 15 38 34
QPR Birmingham 2-1 8 40 33
Rotherham Wigan 1-0 15 40 32
Sheffield Wed Reading 1-0 12 52 23
Stoke West Brom 0-1 10 31 41
Swansea Millwall 1-0 16 46 27
Norwich Ipswich 2-0 12 69 13

Championship, R30 (1-2 Feb, 2019)

It’s not good news for Derby fans tonight. The Model says their trip to Lancashire will be fruitless, as Preston are favourites in this one. The Model says Preston have a 39% chance of winning, and a forecast scoreline of 1-0 (11%).

Derby are forecast to lose, so does it really matter what the scores might be in the other Championship games. Seriously … who cares … if Derby are likely to lose ….

If you do care, the rest of our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Preston Derby 1-0 11 39 33
Birmingham Notts Forest 1-0 14 44 29
Brentford Blackburn 1-0 15 46 27
Bristol City Swansea 1-0 15 47 26
Hull Stoke 1-0 14 49 25
Ipswich Sheffield Wed 0-1 12 30 42
Leeds Norwich 2-1 8 40 32
Millwall Rotherham 1-0 18 58 19
Reading Aston Villa 0-1 12 33 39
Sheff Utd Bolton 1-0 20 65 15
West Brom Middlesbrough 1-0 13 49 25
Wigan QPR 0-1 9 34 38

Championship, R29 (26-29 Jan, 2019)

It is the FA Cup “Losers” round in the Championship. Flying under the radar, there are 6 fixtures today and another 2 on Tuesday.

Blackburn and Hull are only 6 points off the playoffs. They don’t have to worry about relegation, and presumably they will be looking at their options before the transfer window closes next week, to mount a push for promotion (presuming winter transfer activity is ever positive…). These two sides face each other today. The Model gives Blackburn the edge, playing at home, and the forecast scoreline is 1-0 (9%). [Incidentally, who remembers Phil Brown’s half time team talk on the pitch…? Classic man management.]

The rest of our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Aston Villa Ipswich 1-0 12 63 16
Blackburn Hull 1-0 9 40 32
Bolton Reading 1-0 12 38 34
Norwich Sheff Utd 2-1 8 48 26
Notts Forest Wigan 1-0 15 53 22
Rotherham Leeds 0-1 13 29 44
Stoke Preston 1-0 13 44 29
Swansea Birmingham 1-0 13 46 28

Championship, R28 (18-21 Jan, 2019)

Is it really that surprising that clubs send scouts (or spies) to observe their opponents training? But the media response was surprising, which resulted in a lecture by Bielsa, PowerPoint slides included, on the detailed preparation his Leeds side do before every match — truly bizarre, but enlightening. Perhaps it shows that the modern football manager needs an analytical mind, and the idea of him as just a motivator of men is a bit naiive.

Leeds will put their plans and data into action this weekend in attempting to overcome Stoke City. The FA Cup replay in midweek saw Stoke collapse against Shrewsbury. If Stoke fall any further, then games against Shrewsbury may happen a little more often and it could become a true local derby. The Model suggests Bielsa’s analysis will be in vain, and Stoke have a 47% chance of victory, with a most likely outcome of 1-0 (14%).

Another side in midweek FA Cup action were Derby. The team of Frank Lampard (who has a reputation as an intelligent footballer/manager due to his prowess in GCSE Latin) are heavy favourites at home to Reading in the Model, with a 67% chance of winning and most likely outcome of 2-1 (10%).

Our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Norwich Birmingham 2-1 9 48 25
Aston Villa Hull 2-1 10 44 28
Blackburn Ipswich 1-0 15 69 12
Derby Reading 2-1 10 67 13
Middlesbrough Millwall 1-0 16 56 19
Notts Forest Bristol City 0-1 12 29 42
QPR Preston 1-0 8 62 16
Rotherham Brentford 0-1 17 18 57
Sheffield Wed Wigan 1-0 11 59 18
Stoke Leeds 1-0 14 47 25
Swansea Sheff Utd 1-0 13 52 22
Bolton West Brom 0-1 15 19 57