Championship, R41 (9-10 Apr, 2019)

There are some massive games on tonight. Even so, all eyes will be on Ewood Park, where Derby County take on their hosts Blackburn Rovers. The Rams currently sit in 7th, and have their legions of fans retain hope that this could be the year they return to where they belong, the top table of English football. The Model also seems to appreciate the Derby Pride, and is giving them a meagre advantage over Blackburn, with a 39% chance of a win. The most likely scoreline outcome is 0-1 (9%). Come on you RAMS!!! (The Model isn’t biased – its human handlers surely are)

The rest of our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

    • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
    • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Blackburn Derby 0-1 9 34 39
Bolton Middlesbro 0-1 23 28 45
Bristol City West Brom 2-1 7 41 32
Preston Leeds 1-0 11 42 31
Sheffield Wed Notts Forest 1-0 12 45 28
Swansea Stoke 1-0 19 48 26
Birmingham Sheff Utd 1-2 9 29 44
Brentford Ipswich 1-0 12 62 16
Hull Wigan 1-0 10 57 20
Millwall QPR 1-0 12 55 21
Norwich Reading 2-0 11 67 14
Rotherham Aston Villa 0-1 11 28 46

Championship, R40 (6 Apr, 2019)

The true and greatest “Championship” in England and Wales begins today, so this Scorecasting Economist is too distracted to say much about the footballing title-name rip-off version.

Anyway… the Model’s latest April edition end of season league table forecasts suggests that most teams have something to play for. Only Brentford, Birmingham, Stoke, Blackburn and QPR, plus relegated Ipswich, might as well finish their seasons early and start focusing on the next Championship/L1 campaign.

Our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Birmingham Leeds 0-1 9 31 42
Blackburn Stoke 1-0 19 40 33
Bolton Ipswich 1-0 18 44 29
Brentford Derby 1-0 12 44 29
Bristol City Wigan 1-0 14 60 17
Hull Reading 2-0 12 51 24
Millwall West Brom 1-2 10 29 44
Norwich QPR 2-0 11 68 13
Preston Sheff Utd 1-0 12 38 35
Rotherham Notts Forest 0-1 15 31 41
Sheffield Wed Aston Villa 1-0 10 40 32
Swansea Middlesbrough 1-0 13 45 28

Championship Midweek Catch-up, R29 & R33 (2 Apr, 2019)

There are two Championship games on Tuesday night. Middlesbrough host Bristol City and Swansea host Brentford. The Model suggests both of these fixtures should be reasonably close, and in both the most likely outcome is 1-0, to the home side.

The details of our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Middlesbrough Bristol City 1-0 16 42 31
Swansea Brentford 1-0 12 39 33

Championship, R39 (29-30 Mar, 2019)

Still playing name that Championship stadium…

Our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
West Brom Birmingham 1-0 11 58 19
Aston Villa Blackburn 1-0 11 55 20
Derby Rotherham 1-0 16 58 19
Ipswich Hull 0-1 13 33 39
Leeds Millwall 1-0 14 52 22
Middlesbrough Norwich 0-1 7 31 42
Notts Forest Swansea 1-0 17 50 25
QPR Bolton 2-0 14 58 19
Reading Preston 0-1 14 30 43
Sheff Utd Bristol City 1-0 14 56 20
Stoke Sheffield Wed 0-0 15 35 37
Wigan Brentford 0-1 11 31 42

Championship, R38 (16 Mar, 2019)

Still playing name that Championship stadium…

Our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Aston Villa Middlesbrough 1-0 13 43 29
Brentford West Brom 2-1 8 38 34
Hull QPR 2-1 9 48 26
Ipswich Notts Forest 0-1 19 27 46
Leeds Sheff Utd 1-0 11 38 35
Preston Birmingham 1-0 12 53 22
Rotherham Norwich 0-1 11 24 50
Sheffield Wed Blackburn 1-0 12 50 24
Stoke Reading 1-0 21 48 26
Wigan Bolton 1-0 21 48 26

Championship, R37 (8-10 Mar, 2019)

Name that Championship stadium…

A rainy Tuesday night in March as we enter the business end of the season. The relegation picture in the Championship is exciting, as there are 5 teams within 7 points of each other, fighting to stay out of the last two relegation places (assuming Ipswich are gone). Nobody wants to drop into the 2nd half of the National Football League – that is where teams go to rot.

Reading have had an indifferent season, verging on poor, and are one of those teams in danger of relegation. Tonight they take on Leeds at the Madejski. The Model gives Reading a fair chance of a win at home (33%), but Leeds are still favourites (39%), and the most likely outcome is 0-1 (14%).

Bolton (yes it is their stadium in the banner image – named whatever it is now) are at home tonight against Sheffield Wednesday. This is surely a good opportunity for them to claw back some ground towards safety. The Model has them at 29% for the win. But the forecast scoreline outcome is 0-1 (16%) — a home defeat.

The rest of our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Blackburn Wigan 1-0 13 50 24
Bolton Sheffield Wed 0-1 16 29 44
Bristol City Ipswich 1-0 17 63 16
Reading Leeds 0-1 14 33 39
Sheff Utd Brentford 1-0 11 51 23
Birmingham Millwall 1-0 15 52 23
Derby Stoke 1-0 17 53 22
Middlesbrough Preston 1-0 17 42 31
Norwich Hull 2-1 9 59 18
Notts Forest Aston Villa 1-0 14 49 25
QPR Rotherham 1-0 12 52 23
West Brom Swansea 2-0 12 55 21

Championship, R36 (8-10 Mar, 2019)

Tonight Norwich face Swansea. The Canaries are top of the table, whereas Swansea have had a season to forget and are now probably looking forward to the summer to put some of that parachute money to good work. The Model makes Norwich strong favourites, with a forecast 56% win likelihood. The most likely scoreline outcome is 2-1 (10%).

Rotherham may be in the relegation zone, but they are also unbeaten in 6 in the league. They travel to rivals Sheffield Utd this weekend. The Model suggests that there is a 65% chance that unbeaten run will end there, and the forecast scoreline is 1-0 (18%).

Derby earned an important win in midweek, to put them just outside the playoffs on goal difference. Derby haven’t lost to the Owls at home in their last 10 meetings, since 2006. I am not sure the Model really takes that sort of bilateral history into account though, and it gives Sheffield Wednesday a decent 28% chance of a win this weekend. That said, the most likely outcome is still a home win, 1-0 (11%).

The rest of our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Norwich Swansea 2-1 10 56 20
Blackburn Preston 0-1 9 34 38
Bolton Millwall 0-1 18 30 43
Bristol City Leeds 1-0 11 45 28
Derby Sheffield Wed 1-0 11 45 28
Middlesbrough Brentford 1-0 16 47 26
Notts Forest Hull 1-0 12 48 26
QPR Stoke 1-0 11 45 28
Reading Wigan 1-0 14 47 27
Sheff Utd Rotherham 1-0 18 65 15
West Brom Ipswich 2-0 14 69 12
Birmingham Aston Villa 1-0 10 50 25