Champions League Quarter Finals (part 1, April 9-10)

Champions League Quarter Finals. A night when some dreams can live on, and others will be shattered. Man City’s quadruple? Ajax’s fairy tail? Ronaldo and Juventus?

The Model has produced a fairly conventional set of forecasts, with the exception of one match. Manchester United are set to re-establish Fortress Old Trafford after the aberration against PSG in the last 16, as the Model expects them to turn over the sole remaining Spanish representatives, the half decent Barcelona (1-0, 13%). Will it be enough?

As always, we face off against Jean-Louis Foulley, and his forecasts are produced below, also. Foulley fully agrees with the Model on Liverpool (2-0 win), disagrees on the Tottenham-Man City result, agrees on the result and margin for Ajax and Juventus, but Foulley has a perhaps more conventional prediction for Barcelona – a 1-0 win at Old Trafford (9%).

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Tue Liverpool Porto 2-0 10% 69% 12%
Tue Tottenham Man City 1-2 8% 28% 46%
Wed Ajax Juventus 0-1 14% 30% 43%
Wed Man Utd Barcelona 1-0 13% 42% 31%
    Win
Foulley F-Score P(R) P(H) P(A)
Liverpool Porto 2-0 11% 69% 13%
Tottenham Man City 1-1 12% 34% 41%
Ajax Juventus 1-2 11% 27% 49%
Man Utd Barcelona 0-1 9% 31% 45%
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Champions League, R16 L2 (b) (Mar 12-13)

It’s the second set of last sixteen Champions League matches tonight, hot on the heels of a sensational set of results last week (if you’re an Ajax or Man United fan). More of the same?

Here’s what the Model expects:

Forecast Win (%)
Date Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Tue Juventus Atl Madrid 1-0 21% 52% 23%
Tue Man City Schalke 1-0 20% 80% 8%
Wed B Munich Liverpool 2-1 9% 40% 33%
Wed Barcelona Lyon 1-0 18% 70% 12%

Here’s what Jean-Louis Foulley’s model expects:

    Win
Foulley Score P(R) P(H) P(A)
Juventus Atl Madrid 1-0 11% 50% 25%
Man City Schalke 2-0 12% 83% 5%
Barcelona Lyon 2-0 11% 80% 7%
Bayern Liverpool 1-0 11% 48% 28%

Champions League R16 L2 (b), (March 5-6)

It’s the second legs of the Champions League last sixteen matches over the next couple of weeks. Tonight poor old Tottenham take a 3-0 lead to Dortmund, and Real Madrid take on Ajax with a 2-1 lead from the first leg. Both are expected to progress, Tottenham despite a 2-1 defeat (9%), and Real with a further 2-0 win (13%).

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Tues Dortmund Tottenham 2-1 9% 40% 33%
Tues R Madrid Ajax 2-0 13% 58% 19%
Weds PSG Man Utd 1-0 12% 45% 28%
Weds Porto Roma 2-1 10% 50% 25%

Again we go up against Jean-Louis Foulley (JLF), and we agree that Real will win 2-0, and that PSG will finish off Man United with a 1-0 win tomorrow night, but disagree on Dortmund and Porto – JLF thinks Roma will progress after their 2-1 first leg win, while The Model thinks Porto will take it to penalties…

Foulley F-Score P(R) P(H) P(A)
Dortmund Tottenham 1-1 12% 40% 34%
Real Madrid Ajax 2-0 12% 72% 11%
Porto Roma 1-1 11% 52% 24%
PSG Man Utd 1-0 11% 55% 21%

Champions League R16 L1 (b) (19-20 Feb)

Second week of the much dragged out Champions League Round of 16 this week, and of the English contenders it’s the turn of Liverpool and Man City.

Our predictions are in the table below:

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Liverpool B Munich 2-1 10% 55% 21%
Lyon Barcelona 0-1 12% 30% 43%
Atl Madrid Juventus 0-1 16% 34% 38%
Schalke Man City 0-1 17% 18% 59%

The forecasts of Jean-Louis Foulley for the same matches are:

    Win %
Foulley forecasts Score P(R) P(H) P(A)
Lyon Barcelona 0-2 10% 17% 62%
Liverpool Bayern Munich 1-1 11% 48% 28 %
Atl Madrid Juventus 1-1 11% 41% 34%
Schalke Man City 0-1 11% 19% 60%

Our forecasts are almost exactly identical for Schalke vs Man City, but otherwise quite different. We shall see how the two nights turn out!

Champions League R16 L1 (a) (12-13 Feb)

The Champions League returns to dominate midweek evenings for the next few weeks. A rejuvenated Manchester United face a less than bouyant PSG this evening, a match-up that looked very tricky for United when it was drawn out of the hat. As it is, now The Model expects a 2-1 Man United win (9%), and there’s a 53% chance they win. The away goal will irritate United, but The Model reckons there’s an 18% chance they’ll win without conceding any away goals. Tottenham will also win 2-1 (7%), and The Model thinks there’s a 13% chance they’ll win without conceding an away goal.

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Man Utd Paris St-G. 2-1 9% 53% 22%
Roma Porto 2-1 7% 39% 34%
Ajax Real Madrid 1-2 8% 34% 38%
Tottenham B Dortmund 2-1 7% 57% 20%

As with our forecasts at the culmination of the Group Stage, we are going head to head with Jean-Louis Foulley, of the Université de Montpellier. We didn’t do so well last time round, so we’re hoping to do better this week. Here are his forecasts:

  Win %
Foulley forecasts Score P(R) P(H) P(A)
Roma Porto 1-1 12% 44% 30%
Man Utd PSG 1-0 11% 45% 30%
Tottenham Dortmund 1-0 11% 55% 22%
Ajax Real Madrid 0-1 11% 24% 52%

Evaluation of the Model: Thrashed in R6 of the Champions League

For the 6th round of the Champions League we published two sets of forecasts:

  1. The Scorecasting Model.
  2. Jean-Louis Foulley’s forecasts, the method of which is described here.

Based on just 16 matches we can provide a rough evaluation of these two methods.

For the most likely result of matches, the Scorecasting Model forecast 7 correct. Foulley’s model however had the most likely result agreeing with the actual outcome in 8 matches.

For the most likely scoreline, the Model got one correct. However, Foulley’s model got 4 correct scorelines!

If we just take the scoreline forecast of each model as a single point forecast, and then award 40 points for a correct scoreline and 10 points for a correct result only, then the Model would score 100 points from the 16 matches. On the other hand, Foulley’s model scores 220 points.

Foulley’s forecasts for past Champions League rounds are also published here.

 

 

Champions League R6 (11-12 Dec)

It’s crunch time in the Champions League – the final set of group matches. Who will progress? Who will slip into the Europa League? This week, in addition to our usual forecasts, we also list the outcome forecasts created by Jean-Louis Foulley – see below. These are forecasts posted here, and Jean-Louis has also written an important paper on the ways in which we might penalise scoreline forecasts – like the ones we create.

Tottenham look set to drop out on Tuesday night, losing 2-0 to Barcelona (11%), while Liverpool look set to progress, beating Napoli 3-0 (9%).

Forecast Win (%)
Tuesday Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Barcelona Tottenham 2-0 11% 48% 26%
Brugge Atl Madrid 0-1 21% 22% 54%
Galatasaray Porto 0-1 23% 24% 51%
Inter PSV 1-0 20% 48% 26%
Liverpool Napoli 3-0 9% 58% 19%
Monaco Dortmund 1-2 9% 22% 54%
Red Star Paris St-G. 0-2 10% 29% 45%
Schalke L Moscow 2-0 15% 56% 21%

On Wednesday, in the only group where qualification hasn’t already been resolved, Shaktar will beat Lyon into the knock-out stages…

Forecast Win (%)
Wednesday Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Ajax B Munich 1-0 10% 41% 32%
Benfica AEK 1-0 18% 57% 20%
Man City Hoffenheim 3-1 8% 78% 8%
R Madrid CSKA 3-0 15% 68% 13%
Shakhtar Lyon 1-0 10% 49% 25%
Valencia Man Utd 0-1 23% 28% 45%
Plzen Roma 0-3 10% 36% 37%
Young Boys Juventus 0-3 9% 26% 48%

Foulley’s forecasts:

We’re going head to head against Foulley’s model, so here are his outcome probabilities, including the most likely socreline. For the forecast scoreline, we disagree on three matches (Ajax vs Bayern, Shakhtar vs Lyon, & Valencia vs Man U), and on all other matches, we are more conservative in our estimated probabilities. We will continue to post these comparisons, as with probabilistic forecasts, it is fairly meaningless to compare a small number of probabilities as those listed here.

Foulley (Bayesian) forecasts Win %
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Barcelona Tottenham 2-0 10% 69% 13%
Brugge Atl Madrid 0-1 12% 17% 62%
Galatasaray Porto 0-1 13% 20% 56%
Inter PSV 1-0 12% 61% 17%
Liverpool Napoli 1-0 11% 53% 23%
Monaco Dortmund 0-1 13% 18% 59%
Red Star Paris St-G. 0-2 12% 11% 73%
Schalke L Moscow 1-0 13% 64% 15%
Ajax B Munich 1-1 12% 30% 44%
Benfica AEK 1-0 12% 68% 13%
Man City Hoffenheim 2-0 10% 84% 6%
R Madrid CSKA 2-0 13% 83% 5%
Shakhtar Lyon 1-1 11% 48% 29%
Valencia Man Utd 1-0 11% 37% 35%
Plzen Roma 0-2 10% 18% 61%
Young Boys Juventus 0-2 13% 12% 70%