FA Cup Semi Finals (6-7 April)

Wembley, recently vacated by Spurs, hosts the FA Cup Semi-Finals this weekend.

The Model expects Man City to continue their relentless march towards the Quadruple, winning 3-1 against Brighton (8%), while the battle of 8th vs 7th in the Premier League, the battle of the teams whose names begin with W, is expected to go Watford’s way 1-0 (27%).

Forecast Win (%)
T1 T2 Score PR(%) P(T1) P(T2)
Sat Man City Brighton 3-1 8% 76% 9%
Sun Watford Wolves 1-0 27% 41% 31%
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FA Cup Quarter Finals (March 16-17)

Can Wolves do it? The Model says no. Can Swansea? The Model says no. Millwall? No.

But the Model only shows us who are the favourites in Cup matches. Upsets are upsets precisely because they go against what is expected – that the favourites win.

We Scorecasting Economists delight in being wrong – particularly when it involves Man United losing…

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Sat Swansea Man City 1-3 8% 12% 70%
Sat Watford C Palace 1-0 18% 47% 26%
Sat Wolves Man Utd 0-1 23% 30% 43%
Sun Millwall Brighton 0-1 11% 29% 45%

FA Cup Round 5 (Feb 15-18)

The FA Cup Fifth Round happens this weekend. The Model doesn’t think there’s going to be any upsets.

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
QPR Watford 0-1 25% 24% 50%
AFC Wim Millwall 1-2 5% 24% 51%
Brighton Derby 1-0 12% 50% 24%
Newport Co Man City 0-2 13% 6% 83%
Bristol C Wolves 0-1 18% 31% 41%
Doncaster C Palace 0-1 10% 24% 51%
Swansea Brentford 2-0 10% 40% 32%
Chelsea Man Utd 1-0 10% 43% 30%

FA Cup Fourth Round (Jan 25-28)

The last 32 teams in the FA Cup square up this weekend, starting in seconds at Ashton Gate where Bristol City face Bolton. The Model expects Bristol City to win 1-0 (15%).

The only “shock” (which isn’t a shock by virtue of it not being the less likely outcome) is Portsmouth to beat QPR 1-0 (18%).

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Friday Arsenal Man Utd 1-0 11% 39% 33%
Friday Bristol C Bolton 1-0 15% 64% 16%
Saturday Accrington Derby 0-1 13% 23% 52%
Saturday AFC Wim West Ham 1-2 9% 15% 64%
Saturday Brighton West Brom 2-1 10% 48% 25%
Saturday Doncaster Oldham 1-0 13% 57% 19%
Saturday Man City Burnley 1-0 14% 76% 9%
Saturday M’bro Newport 1-0 18% 76% 9%
Saturday Millwall Everton 0-2 10% 27% 46%
Saturday Newcastle Watford 1-0 14% 39% 33%
Saturday P’mouth QPR 1-0 18% 38% 34%
Saturday S’bury Wolves 0-1 17% 18% 60%
Saturday Swansea G’ham 4-0 9% 66% 14%
Sunday C Palace Tottenham 1-2 9% 25% 49%
Sunday Chelsea Sheff Wed 2-0 18% 77% 9%
Monday Barnet Brentford 0-1 14% 15% 65%

FA Cup Round 3 (Jan 4-7)

The magic of the FA Cup! We Scorecasting Economists have our tickets, we’ll be amongst 4,000 Oldham fans at Craven Cottage on Sunday, some of us hoping more than others for an upset.

We’ve put the Model to work to generate forecasts for the weekend’s matches, starting with tonight’s T-time battle between Tranmere and Tottenham. The Premiership high fliers are naturally heavy favourites – the model puts them at 71% to win. But that’s the beauty of the FA Cup, isn’t it? Tranmere don’t have a 0% chance of winning, but instead an 11% chance of winning. They could do it, they just could. However, the cold forecast from the Model is a thumping 4-0 win for Tottenham (9%).

Forecast Win (%)
Friday/Saturday Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Tranmere Tottenham 0-4 9% 11% 71%
Accrington Ipswich 1-1 11% 38% 33%
Aston Villa Swansea 2-1 8% 50% 24%
Bolton Walsall 1-0 17% 46% 26%
B’mouth Brighton 2-1 9% 41% 30%
Brentford Oxford 1-0 10% 60% 17%
Bristol C Hudd’field 1-0 8% 42% 30%
Burnley Barnsley 2-1 9% 47% 26%
C Palace Grimsby 2-0 16% 77% 8%
Chelsea N Forest 3-0 11% 69% 12%
Derby So’ton 1-1 12% 37% 34%
Everton Lincoln 3-0 10% 72% 11%
Fleetwood AFC W 1-0 10% 53% 22%
Gillingham Cardiff 0-1 12% 23% 51%
Man Utd Reading 1-0 16% 71% 11%
Middlesbro Peterboro 1-0 11% 58% 18%
Newcastle Blackburn 1-0 8% 56% 19%
Norwich Portsmouth 1-0 17% 57% 19%
Sheff Wed Luton 2-1 10% 42% 30%
Shrewsbury Stoke 0-1 18% 25% 48%
West Brom Wigan 1-0 8% 65% 14%
West Ham Birmingham 2-1 10% 52% 22%

Saturday sees about the only shock the Model thinks is likely (thus not making it a shock): Bristol City to beat Huddersfield, which the Guardian also thinks is very likely.

Of Sunday’s games, Woking manager Alan Dowson isn’t expecting a shock against Watford, and nor should he: the Model puts Woking’s chances at 9%. A 2-0 win for Watford is at 15%.

At Craven Cottage, a win for mid-table managerless Oldham over Premiership Fulham is at 13%, so again would be a genuine shock in this “tricky tie”. A routine 2-0 win for the hosts is most likely (9%).

Forecast Win (%)
Sunday/Monday Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Fulham Oldham 2-0 9% 67% 13%
Man City Rotherham 6-0 10% 82% 6%
Millwall Hull 1-1 11% 38% 33%
Newport Co Leicester 0-2 14% 10% 73%
Preston Doncaster 2-0 10% 47% 25%
QPR Leeds 0-0 24% 38% 33%
Sheff Utd Barnet 3-0 13% 75% 9%
Woking Watford 0-2 15% 9% 76%
Wolves Liverpool 0-1 16% 21% 54%

FA Cup Round 2 (Nov 30-Dec 3)

The second round of the FA Cup is upon us (in fact it began about 35 minutes ago somewhere near Birmingham). The Model actually thinks there’ll be a shock at Solihull Moors, too, with a 1-0 win for the non-leaguers most likely (16%).

It’s not the only shock the Model sees in store this weekend, either. AFC Wimbledon will go down 1-0 at Halifax (3%), Oldham who squeaked by Hampton and Richmond Borough in the first round (pictured) will bow out 1-0 at Maidstone (11%), Wrexham will win the Welsh Derby with Newport 1-0 (3%), Chesterfield will beat Grimsby 1-0 (9%), and Slough will deal with Gilllingham 3-0 (9%). It could be an interesting weekend!

Forecast Win (%)
Date Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
30 Nov Solihull M Blackpool 1-0 16% 38% 35%
1 Dec Accrington Chelt’m 2-0 17% 56% 20%
Halifax AFCW 1-0 3% 48% 26%
Lincoln Carlisle 2-1 10% 57% 20%
Maidstone Oldham 1-0 11% 37% 36%
Peterboro Bradford 1-0 18% 66% 14%
Plymouth Oxford 1-0 13% 38% 35%
Southend Barnsley 0-1 6% 29% 44%
Walsall S’derland 0-1 16% 31% 42%
Wrexham Newport 1-0 3% 55% 21%
2 Dec Barnet Stockport 2-1 5% 45% 28%
Bury Luton 1-2 9% 29% 44%
Chesterf’d Grimsby 1-0 9% 45% 28%
Rochdale P’mouth 0-1 7% 34% 39%
S’bury S’thorpe 1-0 26% 53% 22%
Slough G’ham 3-0 9% 44% 29%
Swindon Woking 2-1 4% 39% 34%
Tranmere Southport 2-0 11% 59% 19%
3 Dec Guiseley Fleetwood 0-1 17% 35% 38%