Internationals, R3 (14-21 Nov)

Another set of international fixtures. Another 82.

The first one, this evening, has seen the Swiss take on the 2022 World Cup hosts, Qatar. That’s already finished, and contrary to expectations, Qatar won 1-0.

Forecast Win (%)
14th Nov Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Switzerland Qatar 1-0 15% 75% 9%

Thursday night sees Wayne Rooney’s farewell appearance for England, which the Model expects England to win 1-0. Whilst that happens, the Nations League continues, with the group stages coming to an end this international break. Spain are expected to win Group A4 (40%).

Forecast Win (%)
15th Nov Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Andorra Georgia 0-1 22% 11% 69%
Austria Bosnia-Hz. 1-0 14% 50% 22%
Belgium Iceland 2-0 10% 83% 6%
Croatia Spain 0-1 13% 30% 40%
England USA 1-0 18% 69% 12%
Germany Russia 2-0 11% 54% 20%
Greece Finland 1-0 21% 43% 28%
Hungary Estonia 1-0 18% 41% 29%
Iran Trinidad 1-0 20% 83% 6%
Ireland N Ireland 1-0 22% 59% 17%
Israel Guatemala 1-0 17% 40% 30%
Kazakhstan Latvia 1-0 15% 66% 13%
Lux Belarus 1-1 12% 36% 34%
Poland Czech Rep 2-0 10% 58% 18%
San Marino Moldova 0-1 34% 12% 67%

On Friday, France will seal their place in the Nations League Finals by avoiding defeat (74%).

Forecast Win (%)
16th Nov Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Brazil Uruguay 1-0 19% 76% 9%
Cyprus Bulgaria 0-1 9% 19% 56%
Gibraltar Armenia 0-2 16% 26% 45%
Holland France 0-1 9% 26% 46%
Japan Venezuela 2-1 9% 62% 15%
Liecht Macedonia 0-1 19% 13% 66%
Peru Ecuador 1-0 11% 63% 14%
Saudi A Yemen 1-0 27% 73% 10%
Slovakia Ukraine 0-1 15% 26% 46%
Slovenia Norway 0-1 10% 28% 43%
UAE Bolivia 1-1 13% 35% 35%
Wales Denmark 0-0 18% 32% 38%

On Saturday, a win for Scotland?

Forecast Win (%)
17th Nov Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Albania Scotland 0-1 13% 26% 45%
Argentina Mexico 1-0 17% 52% 21%
Australia South Korea 1-0 12% 47% 24%
Azerbaijan Faroes 1-0 18% 64% 14%
Chile Costa Rica 1-0 11% 68% 12%
Honduras Panama 1-0 13% 51% 22%
Italy Portugal 0-0 14% 32% 38%
Malta Kosovo 0-1 19% 16% 61%
Romania Lithuania 2-0 21% 84% 5%
Serbia Montenegro 1-0 14% 70% 11%
Turkey Sweden 1-0 12% 42% 29%

On Sunday, England will consign Croatia to relegation (56%).

Forecast Win (%)
18th Nov Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
England Croatia 1-0 18% 56% 19%
Greece Estonia 1-0 23% 63% 14%
Hungary Finland 0-1 8% 24% 48%
Moldova Lux 0-1 14% 27% 44%
N Ireland Austria 0-1 15% 23% 50%
San Marino Belarus 0-3 22% 9% 74%
Spain Bosnia-Hz. 2-0 14% 75% 9%
Switzerland Belgium 0-1 11% 23% 49%

On Monday, Germany may just avoid relegation (43%).

Forecast Win (%)
19th Nov Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Andorra Latvia 0-1 25% 26% 45%
Bulgaria Slovenia 1-0 13% 63% 15%
Cyprus Norway 0-1 12% 17% 58%
Czech Rep Slovakia 1-0 10% 48% 24%
Denmark Ireland 1-0 16% 66% 13%
Georgia Kazakhstan 1-0 14% 66% 13%
Germany Holland 2-0 11% 43% 28%
Liecht Armenia 0-1 17% 15% 62%
Macedonia Gibraltar 3-0 17% 74% 9%
Qatar Iceland 2-1 7% 41% 30%

On Tuesday, a good night for Scotland (67%) and Wales (54%)?

Forecast Win (%)
20th Nov Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Albania Wales 0-1 17% 20% 54%
Brazil Cameroon 2-0 18% 84% 5%
China Palestine 1-0 11% 62% 15%
France Uruguay 1-0 12% 71% 11%
Iran Venezuela 1-0 22% 70% 11%
Italy USA 1-0 16% 52% 21%
Japan Kyrgyzstan 8-0 11% 83% 6%
Jordan Saudi A 0-0 14% 37% 33%
Kosovo Azerbaijan 1-0 16% 62% 15%
Malta Faroes 0-0 21% 36% 34%
Montenegro Romania 0-1 16% 23% 49%
Nigeria Uganda 1-0 27% 63% 14%
Portugal Poland 1-0 11% 68% 12%
Scotland Israel 1-0 13% 67% 12%
Serbia Lithuania 2-0 19% 84% 5%
South Africa Paraguay 1-0 14% 62% 15%
Sweden Russia 1-1 11% 36% 35%
Tunisia Morocco 1-0 11% 41% 30%
Turkey Ukraine 0-1 15% 30% 40%
UAE Egypt 0-1 20% 30% 40%
Uzbekistan South Korea 0-0 14% 34% 36%

In the early hours of Wednesday in the Americas, Argentina, Chile, Ecuador and Peru are expected to win…

Forecast Win (%)
21st Nov Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Argentina Mexico 1-0 17% 52% 21%
Chile Honduras 2-0 17% 70% 11%
Panama Ecuador 0-1 14% 31% 40%
Peru Costa Rica 1-0 13% 69% 11%
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The Second International Break

The second international break is upon us, with attention focussed on the behind closed doors match England will play against Croatia on Friday evening. If our forecast is to be believed, all those fans kept from parting with money may be relieved; a drab goalless draw appears to be the most likely score (16%).

As this post is being written, due to a bug with the dataset, the model hasn’t fully been re-estimated, and the international matches have begun for this set of dates, with Italy facing the Ukraine. Italy are expected to win 1-0 (19%). The Indonesia match is a backcast, as it occurred earlier today, and Indonesia won 3-0…

Forecast Win (%)
10th October Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Albania Jordan 1-0 23% 40% 31%
Indonesia Myanmar 1-0 7% 45% 26%
Italy Ukraine 1-0 19% 45% 27%

Considering Thursday evening, France will comfortably beat Iceland (84% chance of a France win), Scotland should win in Israel (1-0, 10%), and Spain ought to win 1-0 in the Welsh valleys (16%).

Forecast Win (%)
11th October Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Faroes Azerbaijan 0-1 13% 29% 41%
France Iceland 2-0 12% 84% 5%
Iraq Argentina 0-2 16% 17% 59%
Israel Scotland 0-1 10% 18% 57%
Kosovo Malta 1-0 22% 80% 7%
Lithuania Romania 0-1 23% 13% 67%
Montenegro Serbia 0-1 12% 25% 47%
Poland Portugal 1-1 13% 33% 37%
Russia Sweden 1-0 9% 54% 20%
Turkey Bosnia-Hz. 1-0 12% 43% 28%
Wales Spain 0-1 16% 16% 61%

On Friday, Croatia and England will draw (15%), Belgium will beat Switzerland 1-0 (13%), and the USA will draw with Colombia (1-1, 13%).

Forecast Win (%)
12th October Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Austria N Ireland 1-0 19% 70% 11%
Belarus Luxembourg 2-0 15% 53% 21%
Belgium Switzerland 1-0 13% 70% 11%
Croatia England 0-0 15% 39% 32%
Estonia Finland 0-0 21% 34% 36%
Greece Hungary 1-0 16% 67% 13%
Japan Panama 2-0 12% 66% 13%
Mexico Costa Rica 1-0 16% 70% 11%
Moldova San Marino 2-0 27% 83% 6%
Qatar Ecuador 0-1 13% 30% 41%
Saudi Arabia Brazil 0-3 13% 11% 70%
South Korea Uruguay 0-1 16% 20% 54%
USA Colombia 1-1 13% 37% 33%

On Saturday, the two most populous countries on the planet do battle, and China is expected to comfortably win 5-1 (6%). One of Europe’s grudge matches takes place too, the Dutch expected to hold the Germans in the Netherlands 1-1 (12%).

Forecast Win (%)
13th October Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Armenia Gibraltar 3-0 17% 73% 10%
Bulgaria Cyprus 1-0 13% 77% 8%
China India 5-1 6% 66% 13%
Georgia Andorra 2-0 22% 84% 5%
Holland Germany 1-1 12% 39% 31%
Ireland Denmark 0-0 15% 31% 39%
Latvia Kazakhstan 0-1 10% 27% 44%
Macedonia Liechtenstein 2-0 20% 83% 6%
Myanmar Bolivia 1-2 9% 29% 42%
Norway Slovenia 1-0 15% 56% 19%
Peru Chile 1-0 11% 46% 26%
Slovakia Czech Rep 1-0 11% 47% 25%

On Sunday, Poland are expected to upset the Italians with a 1-0 win (11%), and the match-up of international pariah states will see Russia beat Turkey 2-1 (9%).

Forecast Win (%)
14th October Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Azerbaijan Malta 1-0 25% 72% 10%
Faroe Islands Kosovo 0-1 11% 19% 56%
Israel Albania 1-1 13% 34% 36%
Lithuania Montenegro 0-1 21% 22% 51%
Poland Italy 1-0 11% 46% 26%
Romania Serbia 1-0 16% 48% 24%
Russia Turkey 2-1 9% 56% 18%
Scotland Portugal 0-1 15% 22% 51%

On Monday, Spain are expected to deal with the threat of Gareth Southgate’s England 1-0 (16%).

Forecast Win (%)
15th October Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Belarus Moldova 1-0 21% 74% 9%
Bosnia-Hz. N Ireland 1-0 19% 64% 14%
Croatia Jordan 2-0 20% 80% 7%
Estonia Hungary 1-0 10% 52% 21%
Finland Greece 1-0 18% 41% 29%
Iceland Switzerland 0-1 10% 22% 50%
Kuwait Australia 0-1 14% 22% 50%
Luxembourg San Marino 2-0 26% 87% 4%
Saudi Arabia Iraq 1-0 13% 52% 21%
Spain England 1-0 16% 60% 16%

On Monday, Brazil are strong favourites to beat Argentina (1-0 17%), and Ireland should expect to beat Wales by the same scoreline (1-0, 17%).

Forecast Win (%)
16th October Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Armenia Macedonia 1-1 12% 34% 37%
Belgium Holland 2-1 9% 68% 12%
Brazil Argentina 1-0 17% 74% 9%
China Syria 1-0 14% 46% 26%
Colombia Costa Rica 1-0 15% 72% 10%
Denmark Austria 1-0 16% 48% 24%
France Germany 1-0 10% 66% 13%
Gibraltar Liechtenstein 1-0 16% 59% 17%
Indonesia Hong Kong 1-0 28% 56% 19%
Iran Bolivia 1-0 23% 73% 10%
Ireland Wales 1-0 17% 44% 27%
Japan Uruguay 0-1 10% 22% 51%
Kazakhstan Andorra 2-0 22% 78% 7%
Latvia Georgia 0-1 11% 17% 59%
Norway Bulgaria 1-0 15% 40% 30%
Oman Ecuador 0-2 10% 23% 49%
Slovenia Cyprus 1-0 19% 67% 12%
South Korea Panama 1-0 17% 63% 15%
Sweden Slovakia 1-0 15% 54% 20%
UAE Venezuela 1-1 13% 33% 37%
Ukraine Czech Rep 1-0 18% 65% 14%
Uzbekistan Qatar 1-0 17% 48% 24%

An end to the international break in the Americas should see a couple of home wins, Mexico over Chile and the US over Peru.

Forecast Win (%)
17th October Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Mexico Chile 1-0 14% 53% 21%
USA Peru 1-0 14% 47% 24%

The International Break

The Premier League and Championship have entered the first international break of the season, with something in the region of 79 international matches taking place between now and next Wednesday. We’ll continue with our lower league forecasts, since these divisions carry on in earnest, but we decided to experiment again by looking at international matches, and providing scoreline forecasts for these.

We stripped out some variables (form, still in the FA Cup, etc), and our international model simply factors in attacking and defensive strengths, along with the more general Elo strength of each team when making a forecast. We have some seasonal effects for different times of the year, too.

International matches are quite different to domestic ones, as is well known. Fewer goals are scored – 2 in international matches and 3 in domestic games, on average (using the median); games are cagier. This may well aid us, since our forecasts do tend to be on the low scoring side.

In the following tables, we list forecasts grouping them by dates. So the first set of forecasts is for the 5th and 6th of September. There are things we won’t be able to factor in, like Denmark fielding futsal players, and lower league players due to a labour dispute. However, hopefully we won’t be too far off the mark elsewhere – Germany to beat World Champs France, Wales to beat Ireland, European Champs Portugal to beat World Cup Finalists Croatia.

Most likely Win (%)
5th-6th September 2018 Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Slovakia Denmark 0-0 14% 34% 34%
Armenia Liechtenstein 2-0 16% 88% 3%
Austria Sweden 0-1 15% 27% 44%
Czech Rep Ukraine 0-1 16% 28% 40%
Germany France 1-0 12% 58% 19%
Gibraltar Macedonia 0-2 18% 4% 83%
Holland Peru 1-0 13% 60% 17%
Kazakhstan Georgia 1-1 13% 37% 34%
Latvia Andorra 1-0 23% 80% 3%
Norway Cyprus 1-0 19% 58% 15%
Portugal Croatia 1-0 16% 53% 20%
Slovenia Bulgaria 1-0 18% 46% 23%
Wales Ireland 1-0 17% 39% 28%

On Friday, World Cup Bronze medalists Belgium to win in Scotland, Chile to edge World Cup surprise package Japan, Turkey to beat Russia, and in one of the most imbalanced matches of the international break where Guatemala have just a 1% chance of beating Argentina.

Most likely Win (%)
7th September 2018 Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Albania Israel 1-0 16% 50% 22%
Argentina Guatemala 4-0 10% 90% 1%
Azerbaijan Kosovo 1-0 11% 38% 35%
Faroe Islands Malta 1-0 22% 45% 19%
Italy Poland 1-0 11% 49% 26%
Japan Chile 1-2 8% 39% 39%
Lithuania Serbia 0-1 17% 10% 70%
Qatar China 2-0 12% 68% 13%
Romania Montenegro 1-0 15% 57% 18%
Scotland Belgium 0-1 10% 32% 42%
South Korea Costa Rica 0-1 10% 35% 38%
Turkey Russia 2-1 10% 54% 23%
Venezuela Colombia 0-1 16% 17% 58%

On Saturday, England face Spain in the first apparently confusing Nations League match for both nations. Spain are naturally the more likely to win, despite their disappointing showing at the World Cup, with a 36% probability of winning to England’s 33%, but these probabilities reflect a tight match, and so the conditionally most likely score is a 1-1 draw. Three matches to miss look like Luxembourg vs Moldova, Mexico vs Uruguay and Northern Ireland vs Bosnia, all of which look likely to be short on goals. Belarus are 95% likely to beat San Marino, who themselves have less than 1% chance of winning. A 3-0 scoreline is most likely, with a probability of 18%.

Most likely Win (%)
8th September 2018 Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Belarus San Marino 3-0 18% 95% 0%
Ecuador Jamaica 3-0 11% 89% 3%
England Spain 1-1 14% 33% 36%
Estonia Greece 0-1 19% 24% 43%
Finland Hungary 1-1 14% 34% 35%
Luxembourg Moldova 0-0 24% 34% 28%
Mexico Uruguay 0-0 18% 38% 28%
N Ireland Bosnia-Hz. 0-0 24% 27% 36%
Switzerland Iceland 1-0 14% 61% 16%
USA Brazil 0-1 19% 11% 65%

On Sunday, Denmark (40%) would ordinarily be likely to beat Wales (24%), with 1-0 being the most likely score (20%), but as already mentioned, they are not fielding players from their top two divisions in their match. World Cup winners France are expected to beat the Netherlands 1-0 (11%), and Germany are expected to beat Peru 2-0 (14%).

Most likely Win (%)
9th September 2018 Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Bulgaria Norway 1-0 12% 49% 25%
Cyprus Slovenia 0-1 21% 21% 42%
Denmark Wales 1-0 20% 40% 24%
France Holland 1-0 11% 53% 23%
Georgia Latvia 1-0 12% 57% 19%
Germany Peru 2-0 14% 72% 10%
Liechtenstein Gibraltar 1-0 20% 42% 23%
Macedonia Armenia 1-0 12% 54% 21%
Ukraine Slovakia 1-0 17% 58% 16%

A devilish match on Monday between Andorra and Kazakhstan has Andorra at 6% to win, and the Kazakhs at 66%. A single goal win for the Kasakhs is most likely (28%). New Fifa nation Kosovo are highly likely (62%) to edge perennial whipping boys Faroe Islands 1-0 (17%). Portugal look likely to edge Italy 1-0 in their Nations League match-up, and we expect Scotland to beat Albania, also by the only goal of the game.

Most likely Win (%)
10th September 2018 Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Andorra Kazakhstan 0-1 28% 6% 66%
Kosovo Faroe Islands 1-0 17% 62% 14%
Malta Azerbaijan 0-1 19% 23% 44%
Montenegro Lithuania 2-0 17% 76% 7%
Portugal Italy 1-0 15% 50% 23%
Russia Czech Rep 1-0 10% 57% 21%
Saudi Arabia Bolivia 1-0 12% 56% 20%
Scotland Albania 1-0 14% 59% 18%
Serbia Romania 1-0 14% 43% 28%
Sweden Turkey 1-0 15% 49% 23%

On Tuesday, Bosnia are expected to beat Austria, England to beat Switzerland, Northern Ireland to beat Israel, and Poland to beat Ireland, all 1-0. The other two teams in England’s Nations League group, Spain and Croatia, meet. Despite making the World Cup Final, Croatia remain a significantly weaker proposition than Spain, and have only a 10% of chance of winning on the Iberian peninsula. Spain are at 71%, and the 1-0 win is 15% likely to happen.

Most likely Win (%)
11th September 2018 Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Bosnia-Hz. Austria 1-0 16% 58% 17%
England Switzerland 1-0 20% 58% 14%
Finland Estonia 1-0 21% 50% 18%
Hungary Greece 1-0 15% 43% 27%
Iceland Belgium 1-2 10% 26% 51%
Japan Costa Rica 2-1 10% 51% 26%
Kenya Malawi 1-0 28% 50% 11%
Kuwait Bolivia 0-1 17% 21% 51%
Moldova Belarus 0-1 23% 18% 47%
N Ireland Israel 1-0 23% 44% 18%
Panama Venezuela 1-0 14% 42% 29%
Poland Ireland 1-0 13% 50% 24%
Qatar Palestine 1-0 15% 67% 12%
San Marino Luxembourg 0-1 20% 6% 75%
South Korea Chile 1-2 10% 25% 52%
Spain Croatia 1-0 15% 71% 10%
Uzbekistan Iran 0-0 32% 20% 37%

The international break draws to a close with a number of games on Wednesday 12th, mainly involving South American teams. El Salvador have essentially no chance of winning in Brazil, with a 4-0 scoreline the most likely at 16%, and Guatemala are similarly expected to lose 4-0 in Ecuador, and have only a 2% chance of springing a surprise. Colombia and Argentina both look to put behind them World Cup Last 16 exists as they play each other. Colombia are the more likely to prevail (45% to 28%), and 1-0 is 12% likely.

Most likely Win (%)
12th September 2018 Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Brazil El Salvador 4-0 16% 93% 0%
Colombia Argentina 1-0 12% 45% 28%
Ecuador Guatemala 4-0 9% 89% 2%
Panama Venezuela 1-0 14% 42% 29%
USA Mexico 0-0 15% 33% 35%