Lower Leagues, R34 (Feb 23)

There would’ve been fervent local interest anyhow in the derby match taking place at Gigg Lane, Bury, this weekend. In the shifting sands of Greater Manchester (much) lesser derbies, this is a relatively regular fixture. This marks the fourth consecutive season of Bury-Oldham derbies, and the sixth season out of eight they’ve occurred.

Add into the mixer Mr Scholes and his friendly rivalry with Class of ’92 mates the Nevilles and Chris Casper, add in Bury’s stellar form as they challenge for an immediate return to League One, and all is set for a match Sky Sports is sure to send a reporter to cover tomorrow afternoon.

For what it’s worth, The Model thinks Bury will prevail 2-1 (7%), and they are overwhelming favourites (56% to win) given Oldham’s mid-table malaise, and given that the Scholes honeymoon appears to already be over.

Elsewhere, Luton to march on (1-0, 22% vs Coventry), Barnsley to open up a gap over seriously flagging Pompey (0-1, 9%).

Forecast Win (%)
League One Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Accrington Southend 1-0 11% 46% 28%
AFC Wimb Charlton 0-1 19% 32% 41%
Blackpool Oxford 1-0 19% 57% 20%
Bristol R Sunderland 0-1 16% 32% 40%
Burton Fleetwood 1-0 12% 46% 27%
Luton Coventry 1-0 22% 65% 15%
Peterboro Shrewsbury 2-1 10% 45% 28%
Plymouth Rochdale 2-1 7% 54% 21%
Portsmouth Barnsley 0-1 9% 33% 40%
Scunthorpe Doncaster 1-2 9% 30% 43%
Walsall Bradford 1-1 10% 36% 36%
Wycombe Gillingham 1-0 10% 48% 26%

 

Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Bury Oldham 2-1 7% 56% 20%
Cheltenham Port Vale 1-0 16% 53% 22%
Colchester Carlisle 2-1 10% 42% 31%
Crawley Macclesfield 1-0 14% 42% 31%
Crewe Exeter 1-0 10% 38% 35%
Mansfield F Green 1-0 16% 45% 28%
MK Dons Newport 1-0 11% 46% 27%
Morecambe Lincoln 0-2 10% 27% 46%
Stevenage N’hampton 1-0 11% 39% 33%
Swindon Grimsby 1-0 15% 43% 29%
Tranmere Notts Co 1-0 12% 60% 18%
Yeovil Cambridge 1-0 19% 40% 33%
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Lower League Catch Up (19 Feb edition)

More midweek catch-up in the lower leagues. Five 1-0 home wins tonight in League One according to The Model, and all do genuinely look like home bankers.

Forecast Win (%)
League One Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Accrington Oxford 1-0 14% 42% 30%
Barnsley Burton 1-0 17% 59% 18%
Portsmouth Bristol R 1-0 16% 50% 24%
Rochdale AFC Wim 1-0 12% 42% 31%
Sunderland Gillingham 1-0 12% 60% 18%

In League Two the games come thick and fast for Paul Scholes’s Oldham. The Model doesn’t think this will affect them as they face Morecambe at Boundary Park. Another crunch match for improving Notts County too. Can they get off the bottom of the Football League?

Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Cheltenham Cambridge U 1-0 13% 45% 28%
Notts Co Newport Co 0-1 11% 34% 38%
Oldham Morecambe 2-0 11% 59% 18%
Port Vale Tranmere 0-1 18% 33% 39%

Lower Leagues, R33 (Feb 15-16)

League Two continues to attract more column inches, television minutes and internet bandwidth with the addition of not one, but two former England internationals in just a few months this season. Robbie Savage and Crewe boss David Artell have both taken the time today to point out how both men have much more to lose than gain from their managerial punts.  Artell’s Crewe got a 3-3 draw at Campbell’s Macclesfield last weekend, and this weekend they come face to face with Scholes’s Oldham. The Model fancies a 2-1 Oldham win – already a revised forecast relative to before Scholes had managed a match, reflecting the five-goal opening match of Scholes’s reign in the week.

In League One, sleeping giants Sunderland entertain the even more deeply slumbering Accrington Stanley in the North East tonight, and The Model expects them to shade that one 1-0 (21%).

Forecast Win (%)
League One Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Barnsley Wycombe 1-0 15% 61% 17%
Bradford Plymouth 2-1 7% 41% 31%
Charlton Blackpool 1-0 16% 42% 31%
Coventry Walsall 1-0 13% 50% 24%
Doncaster Bristol R 2-1 10% 55% 21%
Fleetwood Luton 0-1 11% 27% 47%
Gillingham Scunthorpe 2-1 7% 41% 31%
Oxford Peterboro 1-0 7% 43% 30%
Shrewsbury Burton 1-0 11% 42% 31%
Southend Portsmouth 0-1 15% 31% 42%
Sunderland Accrington 1-0 21% 61% 17%

 

Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Cambridge Tranmere 1-0 7% 37% 35%
Carlisle MK Dons 1-0 8% 48% 26%
Exeter Bury 1-1 9% 36% 36%
F Green Yeovil 1-0 15% 57% 19%
Grimsby Cheltenham 1-0 10% 45% 28%
Lincoln Stevenage 1-0 14% 59% 18%
Macc T Colchester 0-1 10% 34% 39%
Newport Swindon 1-0 10% 40% 32%
N’hampton Crawley 1-0 12% 54% 21%
Notts Co Mansfield 0-1 10% 23% 52%
Oldham Crewe 2-1 10% 49% 25%
Port Vale Morecambe 1-0 17% 46% 27%

Lower Leagues, catch-up (Feb 12)

Apparently there are other matches taking place tonight than Paul Scholes’s first match as Oldham manager. Here are our forecasts for those other matches, starting in League One, with League Two forecasts below. Sunderland have fallen 11 points behind leaders Luton, but tonight they play one of their three games in hand. With 21% likelihood they will narrowly beat Blackpool 1-0 tonight. Let’s hope that not too many Blackpool fans are making the journey home at full time by public transport.

Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Doncaster Southend 2-1 8% 58% 19%
Sunderland Blackpool 1-0 21% 49% 25%
Walsall AFC Wim 1-0 17% 44% 29%

Similarly, let’s hope there aren’t any Yeovil fans trying to get back to the West Country after their visit to Paul Scholes’s Oldham…

Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Crewe Carlisle 1-2 9% 34% 38%
Newport MK Dons 1-0 8% 44% 29%
Oldham Yeovil 1-0 17% 55% 21%
Swindon F Green 1-1 13% 35% 37%

Scholes to do a Solskjær?

After a mere 718 games playing for the world famous Manchester United, winning almost every honour possible, Paul Scholes (pictured) is finally living the dream – taking up the managerial reins at Oldham Athletic. It’s something Oldham fans have long hoped for, especially as during that time that Scholes took United to soaring heights, the Latics slipped further and further down the leagues.

There is still some way further down they could go, but 14th in League Two for the Premier League founder members, feels close to rock bottom.

However, Scholes could hardly have asked for a better first three fixtures. Naturally, at any level there are no easy games, but in the spectrum of winnable to nigh on impossible, Oldham have three of the more winnable games coming up – three home fixtures on the bounce against teams below them, between today and next Tuesday.

There’s a 55% chance they win tonight (1-0, 17%) against Yeovil, there’s a 49% chance they win on Saturday against Crewe (1-0, 10%), and a 59% chance they win against Morcambe next Tuesday (1-0, 13%). See the table…

Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Tues 12 Oldham Yeovil 1-0 17% 55% 21%
Sat 16 Oldham Crewe 1-0 10% 49% 25%
Tues 19 Oldham Morecamb 1-0 13% 59% 18%

 

Lower Leagues, R32 (Feb 9)

Here are the lower league forecasts for the coming weekend…

Forecast Win (%)
League One Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
AFC Wim Burton 1-1 12% 36% 36%
Blackpool Walsall 1-0 17% 56% 20%
Bradford Fleetwood 1-0 7% 41% 31%
Bristol R Shrewsbury 1-0 16% 45% 28%
Charlton Southend 1-0 16% 55% 21%
Doncaster Peterboro 2-1 7% 51% 23%
Gillingham Barnsley 1-2 10% 27% 47%
Luton Wycombe 1-0 18% 61% 17%
Oxford Sunderland 0-1 12% 30% 43%
Plymouth Portsmouth 0-1 12% 33% 40%
Rochdale Coventry 1-0 12% 40% 33%
Scunthorpe Accrington 1-0 10% 43% 30%
Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Cambridge U Port Vale 1-0 16% 43% 30%
Carlisle Exeter 1-0 9% 45% 28%
Colchester Cheltenham 2-0 12% 44% 29%
Crawley Oldham 0-1 11% 34% 39%
Forest Green Notts Co 1-0 15% 68% 13%
Lincoln Northampton 1-0 12% 56% 20%
Macclesfield Crewe 1-0 10% 37% 35%
MK Dons Swindon 1-0 18% 46% 27%
Morecambe Bury 1-2 9% 24% 50%
Newport Co Mansfield 0-1 13% 30% 43%
Tranmere Stevenage 1-0 17% 45% 28%
Yeovil Grimsby 1-0 22% 40% 33%

Lower Leagues, R31 (Feb 2)

It’s been snowing – how many games will actually go ahead? Will all those valiant efforts to clear the snow from the pitch be in vain? Here are our forecasts for League One and League Two matches, assuming that none fall victim to the weather…

Forecast Win (%)
League One Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Accrington Blackpool 0-1 16% 34% 38%
Barnsley Scunthorpe 2-0 9% 62% 17%
Burton Oxford 1-0 11% 48% 26%
Coventry Gillingham 1-0 10% 43% 30%
Fleetwood Charlton 0-1 11% 34% 39%
Peterboro Plymouth 3-1 8% 51% 24%
Portsmouth Doncaster 2-1 9% 45% 28%
Shrewsbury Luton 0-1 12% 29% 44%
Southend Bristol R 1-0 15% 42% 31%
Sunderland AFC Wim 2-0 15% 63% 16%
Walsall Rochdale 1-0 11% 48% 26%
Wycombe Bradford 2-1 10% 49% 25%
Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Bury Crawley 2-1 9% 66% 14%
Cheltenham Cambridge 2-1 9% 50% 24%
Crewe Carlisle 1-2 9% 34% 38%
Exeter MK Dons 1-0 13% 46% 27%
Grimsby Newport 1-0 10% 40% 32%
Mansfield Macclesfield 1-0 17% 62% 16%
N’hampton Colchester 1-0 10% 46% 27%
Notts Co Lincoln 1-2 9% 20% 56%
Oldham Morecambe 1-0 11% 56% 20%
Port Vale Tranmere 0-0 16% 36% 36%
Stevenage Yeovil 1-0 12% 42% 31%
Swindon F Green 0-1 10% 32% 41%