Champions League R16 L1 (b) (19-20 Feb)

Second week of the much dragged out Champions League Round of 16 this week, and of the English contenders it’s the turn of Liverpool and Man City.

Our predictions are in the table below:

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Liverpool B Munich 2-1 10% 55% 21%
Lyon Barcelona 0-1 12% 30% 43%
Atl Madrid Juventus 0-1 16% 34% 38%
Schalke Man City 0-1 17% 18% 59%

The forecasts of Jean-Louis Foulley for the same matches are:

    Win %
Foulley forecasts Score P(R) P(H) P(A)
Lyon Barcelona 0-2 10% 17% 62%
Liverpool Bayern Munich 1-1 11% 48% 28 %
Atl Madrid Juventus 1-1 11% 41% 34%
Schalke Man City 0-1 11% 19% 60%

Our forecasts are almost exactly identical for Schalke vs Man City, but otherwise quite different. We shall see how the two nights turn out!

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Champions League R16 L1 (a) (12-13 Feb)

The Champions League returns to dominate midweek evenings for the next few weeks. A rejuvenated Manchester United face a less than bouyant PSG this evening, a match-up that looked very tricky for United when it was drawn out of the hat. As it is, now The Model expects a 2-1 Man United win (9%), and there’s a 53% chance they win. The away goal will irritate United, but The Model reckons there’s an 18% chance they’ll win without conceding any away goals. Tottenham will also win 2-1 (7%), and The Model thinks there’s a 13% chance they’ll win without conceding an away goal.

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Man Utd Paris St-G. 2-1 9% 53% 22%
Roma Porto 2-1 7% 39% 34%
Ajax Real Madrid 1-2 8% 34% 38%
Tottenham B Dortmund 2-1 7% 57% 20%

As with our forecasts at the culmination of the Group Stage, we are going head to head with Jean-Louis Foulley, of the Université de Montpellier. We didn’t do so well last time round, so we’re hoping to do better this week. Here are his forecasts:

  Win %
Foulley forecasts Score P(R) P(H) P(A)
Roma Porto 1-1 12% 44% 30%
Man Utd PSG 1-0 11% 45% 30%
Tottenham Dortmund 1-0 11% 55% 22%
Ajax Real Madrid 0-1 11% 24% 52%

Evaluation of the Model: Thrashed in R6 of the Champions League

For the 6th round of the Champions League we published two sets of forecasts:

  1. The Scorecasting Model.
  2. Jean-Louis Foulley’s forecasts, the method of which is described here.

Based on just 16 matches we can provide a rough evaluation of these two methods.

For the most likely result of matches, the Scorecasting Model forecast 7 correct. Foulley’s model however had the most likely result agreeing with the actual outcome in 8 matches.

For the most likely scoreline, the Model got one correct. However, Foulley’s model got 4 correct scorelines!

If we just take the scoreline forecast of each model as a single point forecast, and then award 40 points for a correct scoreline and 10 points for a correct result only, then the Model would score 100 points from the 16 matches. On the other hand, Foulley’s model scores 220 points.

Foulley’s forecasts for past Champions League rounds are also published here.

 

 

Model vs the Experts (R16)

As usual, Lawro and Merson have got their forecasts in. We’ve been doing well so far this season against the experts (if not our own challengers), let’s see if we can keep it up…

Model Lawro Merson
Arsenal Huddersfield 2-0 3-0 3-0
Bournemouth Liverpool 0-2 0-2 1-3
Burnley Brighton 1-1 2-0 1-1
Cardiff Southampton 1-1 2-1 2-0
Chelsea Man City 0-1 0-2 1-2
Leicester Tottenham 1-2 0-2 1-3
Man Utd Fulham 3-0 2-0 2-0
West Ham C Palace 1-0 2-0 2-0
Newcastle Wolves 1-0 1-1 2-2
Everton Watford 1-0 2-0 2-1

Evaluation – Quick Update – “The Model vs Lawro vs Merse” – Model takes the Lead

The featured image (and below) plots the cumulative forecasting performance of “The Model vs Lawro vs Merse” since round 10  in the Premier League, and as of the midweek fixtures just gone, according to the BBC Sport scoring metric (40 points for a perfect scoreline forecast, 10 points for a correct result only).

The Model got off to a good start, but by round 5 tipster Merson had overtaken the Model, and by round 9 tipster Lawro was getting close (see here).

But now the Model has taken the lead again, overhauling Merson and pulling away form Lawro – and we wouldn’t bet against that trend continuing till the end of the season!

fcast

 

Model vs Experts (R14)

Belatedly, and adding Stan Collymore to the line-up of ex-professionals picking scores, here is the table:

Model Lawrenson Merson Collymore
Arsenal Tottenham 2-1 1-2 1-1 2-2
C Palace Burnley 1-0 1-0 2-1 1-1
Cardiff Wolves 0-0 1-1 1-1 1-1
Chelsea Fulham 2-0 2-0 2-0 2-0
Huddersfield Brighton 0-0 1-0 1-0 2-1
Leicester Watford 1-0 2-0 1-1 2-0
Liverpool Everton 1-0 2-0 2-0 2-0
Man City Bournemouth 3-0 3-0 4-1 5-0
Newcastle West Ham 1-0 2-0 2-1 1-0
Southampton Man Utd 0-1 0-2 0-2 0-2

Taking on the Model – Alex Bicknell

The Model has another challenger – Alex Bicknell. The model has had one previous female opponent, and lost, so can Alex keep up that 100% record?

The experts have also submitted their forecasts. All are tabulated below. Who will do best?

Model Lawrenson Merson Bicknell
Brighton Leicester 2-1 1-2 2-1 1-1
Everton Cardiff 1-0 2-0 2-0 2-0
Fulham S’hampton 1-1 2-1 1-2 0-0
Man Utd C Palace 1-0 2-0 2-0 3-1
Tottenham Chelsea 1-1 2-0 1-1 2-2
Watford Liverpool 0-1 1-1 2-2 0-2
West Ham Man City 0-2 0-2 1-3 1-3
B’mouth Arsenal 1-1 2-1 2-3 1-1
Wolves H’sfield 1-0 2-0 3-0 0-1
Burnley Newcastle 0-0 1-1 1-1 1-0