Evaluation – March Update – “The Model vs Lawro vs Merse” – Model holds on to narrow Lead

The Model is holding on to a slim lead over Lawro an Merson, but the “experts” are closing in. Can the computer hang on to the end of the season?

The table below shows the recent forecasting performance of “The Model vs Lawro vs Merse”, as well as the cumulative performance all season, as of 10am 16/3/2019, according to the BBC Sport scoring metric (40 points for a perfect scoreline forecast, 10 points for a correct result only).

Note: Lawro achieved 40 points more in round 27 than recorded on the BBC website as we include a midweek forecast he made for a game rearranged for the Carabao Cup final.

Scorelines Results “Lawro” pts
Model Lawro Merson
Total 32/299 164/299 2600 2550 2540
30: 9-10 Mar 0/10 6/10 60 30 70
29: 2-3 Mar 1/10 7/10 100 100 100
28: 26-27 Feb 0/10 8/10 80 60 100
27: 6-24 Feb 2/9 5/9 110 150 90
26: 9-11 Feb 2/10 6/10 120 140 100
Rounds 1/25 27/250 132/250 2130 2070 2080
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Champions League, R16 L2 (b) (Mar 12-13)

It’s the second set of last sixteen Champions League matches tonight, hot on the heels of a sensational set of results last week (if you’re an Ajax or Man United fan). More of the same?

Here’s what the Model expects:

Forecast Win (%)
Date Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Tue Juventus Atl Madrid 1-0 21% 52% 23%
Tue Man City Schalke 1-0 20% 80% 8%
Wed B Munich Liverpool 2-1 9% 40% 33%
Wed Barcelona Lyon 1-0 18% 70% 12%

Here’s what Jean-Louis Foulley’s model expects:

    Win
Foulley Score P(R) P(H) P(A)
Juventus Atl Madrid 1-0 11% 50% 25%
Man City Schalke 2-0 12% 83% 5%
Barcelona Lyon 2-0 11% 80% 7%
Bayern Liverpool 1-0 11% 48% 28%

Champions League R16 L2 (b), (March 5-6)

It’s the second legs of the Champions League last sixteen matches over the next couple of weeks. Tonight poor old Tottenham take a 3-0 lead to Dortmund, and Real Madrid take on Ajax with a 2-1 lead from the first leg. Both are expected to progress, Tottenham despite a 2-1 defeat (9%), and Real with a further 2-0 win (13%).

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Tues Dortmund Tottenham 2-1 9% 40% 33%
Tues R Madrid Ajax 2-0 13% 58% 19%
Weds PSG Man Utd 1-0 12% 45% 28%
Weds Porto Roma 2-1 10% 50% 25%

Again we go up against Jean-Louis Foulley (JLF), and we agree that Real will win 2-0, and that PSG will finish off Man United with a 1-0 win tomorrow night, but disagree on Dortmund and Porto – JLF thinks Roma will progress after their 2-1 first leg win, while The Model thinks Porto will take it to penalties…

Foulley F-Score P(R) P(H) P(A)
Dortmund Tottenham 1-1 12% 40% 34%
Real Madrid Ajax 2-0 12% 72% 11%
Porto Roma 1-1 11% 52% 24%
PSG Man Utd 1-0 11% 55% 21%

Champions League R16 L1 (b) (19-20 Feb)

Second week of the much dragged out Champions League Round of 16 this week, and of the English contenders it’s the turn of Liverpool and Man City.

Our predictions are in the table below:

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Liverpool B Munich 2-1 10% 55% 21%
Lyon Barcelona 0-1 12% 30% 43%
Atl Madrid Juventus 0-1 16% 34% 38%
Schalke Man City 0-1 17% 18% 59%

The forecasts of Jean-Louis Foulley for the same matches are:

    Win %
Foulley forecasts Score P(R) P(H) P(A)
Lyon Barcelona 0-2 10% 17% 62%
Liverpool Bayern Munich 1-1 11% 48% 28 %
Atl Madrid Juventus 1-1 11% 41% 34%
Schalke Man City 0-1 11% 19% 60%

Our forecasts are almost exactly identical for Schalke vs Man City, but otherwise quite different. We shall see how the two nights turn out!

Champions League R16 L1 (a) (12-13 Feb)

The Champions League returns to dominate midweek evenings for the next few weeks. A rejuvenated Manchester United face a less than bouyant PSG this evening, a match-up that looked very tricky for United when it was drawn out of the hat. As it is, now The Model expects a 2-1 Man United win (9%), and there’s a 53% chance they win. The away goal will irritate United, but The Model reckons there’s an 18% chance they’ll win without conceding any away goals. Tottenham will also win 2-1 (7%), and The Model thinks there’s a 13% chance they’ll win without conceding an away goal.

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Man Utd Paris St-G. 2-1 9% 53% 22%
Roma Porto 2-1 7% 39% 34%
Ajax Real Madrid 1-2 8% 34% 38%
Tottenham B Dortmund 2-1 7% 57% 20%

As with our forecasts at the culmination of the Group Stage, we are going head to head with Jean-Louis Foulley, of the Université de Montpellier. We didn’t do so well last time round, so we’re hoping to do better this week. Here are his forecasts:

  Win %
Foulley forecasts Score P(R) P(H) P(A)
Roma Porto 1-1 12% 44% 30%
Man Utd PSG 1-0 11% 45% 30%
Tottenham Dortmund 1-0 11% 55% 22%
Ajax Real Madrid 0-1 11% 24% 52%

Evaluation of the Model: Thrashed in R6 of the Champions League

For the 6th round of the Champions League we published two sets of forecasts:

  1. The Scorecasting Model.
  2. Jean-Louis Foulley’s forecasts, the method of which is described here.

Based on just 16 matches we can provide a rough evaluation of these two methods.

For the most likely result of matches, the Scorecasting Model forecast 7 correct. Foulley’s model however had the most likely result agreeing with the actual outcome in 8 matches.

For the most likely scoreline, the Model got one correct. However, Foulley’s model got 4 correct scorelines!

If we just take the scoreline forecast of each model as a single point forecast, and then award 40 points for a correct scoreline and 10 points for a correct result only, then the Model would score 100 points from the 16 matches. On the other hand, Foulley’s model scores 220 points.

Foulley’s forecasts for past Champions League rounds are also published here.

 

 

Model vs the Experts (R16)

As usual, Lawro and Merson have got their forecasts in. We’ve been doing well so far this season against the experts (if not our own challengers), let’s see if we can keep it up…

Model Lawro Merson
Arsenal Huddersfield 2-0 3-0 3-0
Bournemouth Liverpool 0-2 0-2 1-3
Burnley Brighton 1-1 2-0 1-1
Cardiff Southampton 1-1 2-1 2-0
Chelsea Man City 0-1 0-2 1-2
Leicester Tottenham 1-2 0-2 1-3
Man Utd Fulham 3-0 2-0 2-0
West Ham C Palace 1-0 2-0 2-0
Newcastle Wolves 1-0 1-1 2-2
Everton Watford 1-0 2-0 2-1