Evaluation of the Model: Thrashed in R6 of the Champions League

For the 6th round of the Champions League we published two sets of forecasts:

  1. The Scorecasting Model.
  2. Jean-Louis Foulley’s forecasts, the method of which is described here.

Based on just 16 matches we can provide a rough evaluation of these two methods.

For the most likely result of matches, the Scorecasting Model forecast 7 correct. Foulley’s model however had the most likely result agreeing with the actual outcome in 8 matches.

For the most likely scoreline, the Model got one correct. However, Foulley’s model got 4 correct scorelines!

If we just take the scoreline forecast of each model as a single point forecast, and then award 40 points for a correct scoreline and 10 points for a correct result only, then the Model would score 100 points from the 16 matches. On the other hand, Foulley’s model scores 220 points.

Foulley’s forecasts for past Champions League rounds are also published here.

 

 

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Model vs the Experts (R16)

As usual, Lawro and Merson have got their forecasts in. We’ve been doing well so far this season against the experts (if not our own challengers), let’s see if we can keep it up…

Model Lawro Merson
Arsenal Huddersfield 2-0 3-0 3-0
Bournemouth Liverpool 0-2 0-2 1-3
Burnley Brighton 1-1 2-0 1-1
Cardiff Southampton 1-1 2-1 2-0
Chelsea Man City 0-1 0-2 1-2
Leicester Tottenham 1-2 0-2 1-3
Man Utd Fulham 3-0 2-0 2-0
West Ham C Palace 1-0 2-0 2-0
Newcastle Wolves 1-0 1-1 2-2
Everton Watford 1-0 2-0 2-1

Evaluation – Quick Update – “The Model vs Lawro vs Merse” – Model takes the Lead

The featured image (and below) plots the cumulative forecasting performance of “The Model vs Lawro vs Merse” since round 10  in the Premier League, and as of the midweek fixtures just gone, according to the BBC Sport scoring metric (40 points for a perfect scoreline forecast, 10 points for a correct result only).

The Model got off to a good start, but by round 5 tipster Merson had overtaken the Model, and by round 9 tipster Lawro was getting close (see here).

But now the Model has taken the lead again, overhauling Merson and pulling away form Lawro – and we wouldn’t bet against that trend continuing till the end of the season!

fcast

 

Model vs Experts (R14)

Belatedly, and adding Stan Collymore to the line-up of ex-professionals picking scores, here is the table:

Model Lawrenson Merson Collymore
Arsenal Tottenham 2-1 1-2 1-1 2-2
C Palace Burnley 1-0 1-0 2-1 1-1
Cardiff Wolves 0-0 1-1 1-1 1-1
Chelsea Fulham 2-0 2-0 2-0 2-0
Huddersfield Brighton 0-0 1-0 1-0 2-1
Leicester Watford 1-0 2-0 1-1 2-0
Liverpool Everton 1-0 2-0 2-0 2-0
Man City Bournemouth 3-0 3-0 4-1 5-0
Newcastle West Ham 1-0 2-0 2-1 1-0
Southampton Man Utd 0-1 0-2 0-2 0-2

Taking on the Model – Alex Bicknell

The Model has another challenger – Alex Bicknell. The model has had one previous female opponent, and lost, so can Alex keep up that 100% record?

The experts have also submitted their forecasts. All are tabulated below. Who will do best?

Model Lawrenson Merson Bicknell
Brighton Leicester 2-1 1-2 2-1 1-1
Everton Cardiff 1-0 2-0 2-0 2-0
Fulham S’hampton 1-1 2-1 1-2 0-0
Man Utd C Palace 1-0 2-0 2-0 3-1
Tottenham Chelsea 1-1 2-0 1-1 2-2
Watford Liverpool 0-1 1-1 2-2 0-2
West Ham Man City 0-2 0-2 1-3 1-3
B’mouth Arsenal 1-1 2-1 2-3 1-1
Wolves H’sfield 1-0 2-0 3-0 0-1
Burnley Newcastle 0-0 1-1 1-1 1-0

The Model vs the Experts

The expert tips are in, as are ours. Here they are:

Model Lawrenson Merson
Arsenal Wolves 1-0 2-0 3-1
C Palace Tottenham 0-1 1-1 1-1
Cardiff Brighton 1-1 1-0 1-0
Chelsea Everton 1-0 2-0 2-0
Huddersfield West Ham 0-0 1-1 1-2
Leicester Burnley 5-2 2-1 3-1
Liverpool Fulham 2-0 3-0 5-0
Man City Man Utd 1-0 1-1 3-1
Newcastle Bournemouth 0-0 2-0 0-2
Southampton Watford 1-1 2-0 1-2

Taking on the Model – Rev Jon Iddon

The model will take on all-comers. It has taken on and succumbed to comedians and small children, it’s scrapped with academics, and this week it takes on the Reverend Jon Iddon, Rector of St Peter’s Church in Drayton Bassett. Jon hails from the West Midlands, has a soft spot for the Wolves but his team is Liverpool.

Mark Lawrenson and Paul Merson have also made their picks for this week.

team1 team2 Model Lawrenson Merson Iddon
Arsenal Liverpool 1-0 1-2 1-3 0-1
B’mouth Man Utd 4-3 0-2 2-2 2-2
Cardiff Leicester 1-2 0-2 2-1 0-2
Chelsea C Palace 2-0 2-0 3-0 2-1
Everton Brighton 2-1 2-0 2-0 0-0
Huddersfield Fulham 1-1 2-1 2-1 2-0
Man City So’ton 2-0 3-0 4-0 3-1
Newcastle Watford 0-0 2-0 0-2 4-3
West Ham Burnley 2-1 2-0 2-0 3-0
Wolves Tottenham 0-1 0-2 1-3 1-1