National League, R10 (8 September)

Earlier in the season we experimented with “other forecasts” of the National League, which revealed some quirks, most notably for teams just promoted to the National League. In the absence of Premier League and Championship games this week, the Sky Bet Super Six competition asks for forecasts of two National League matches: Solihull Moors vs Hartlepool, and Salford vs Maidstone, and so we extended our model, in addition to international matches and FA Women’s Super League matches, to National League matches. We won’t necessarily provide the same level of evaluation we currently do for Premier League and Football League matches on the blog, but we will be evaluating our model performance nonetheless, internally.

After nine games in the National League, Harrogate and Leyton Orient remain unbeaten and are joint top with 19 points. Leyton Orient face a tricky trip to fellow-former-Football-League Halifax Town, who are in fourth place on 17 points. We expect a narrow 1-0 win for Halifax (13%), but anticipate a home win more generally at 45%. That means that Harrogate will go clear at the top, as they have the easier task on paper, playing 18th placed Havant and Waterlooville at home. Another 1-0 home win is most likely at 10%, but Harrogate at 51% likely to win, more generally. Chesterfield, who have struggled after dropping out of the Football League, are expected to suffer another disappointing afternoon, with a 0-1 home reverse against Dover Athletic most likely (result 43%, scoreline 9%).

Most likely Win (%)
National League Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Aldershot Bromley 1-0 12% 46% 27%
Barnet Maidenhead 1-0 11% 49% 26%
Barrow Dag & Red 1-0 9% 39% 35%
Braintree Wrexham 0-1 14% 28% 43%
Chesterfield Dover 0-1 9% 32% 43%
Eastleigh AFC Fylde 1-2 10% 27% 51%
Ebbsfleet Gateshead 1-0 13% 49% 25%
Halifax Leyton Orient 1-0 13% 45% 27%
Harrogate T Havant & W 1-0 10% 51% 25%
Salford Maidstone 1-0 10% 58% 20%
Solihull M Hartlepool 0-1 11% 34% 38%
Sutton Utd Boreham W 1-0 13% 42% 29%
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