Premier League, R33 (5-8 Apr)

There are 6 Premier League games this weekend. While not having been a memorable season in terms of quality, at least we are entering the final stages with many teams still having something significant to play for. Not least, the title is still undecided, even if it is no longer in Liverpool’s hands. To put the pressure back on Manchester City, who are in FA Cup action this weekend, Liverpool must come away from Southampton with a win tonight. Fortunately for them, the Scorecasting Model gives the Reds a 60% chance of doing just that, and the most likely outcome is 0-1 (21%).

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 33 of the Premier League:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Southampton Liverpool 0-1 21 18 60
Bournemouth Burnley 2-1 9 45 29
Huddersfield Leicester 0-1 17 23 51
Newcastle Crystal Palace 1-0 11 43 30
Everton Arsenal 1-2 8 29 44
Chelsea West Ham 1-0 14 62 16
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Premier League, R27&31&33 (2-3 Apr)

There is plenty of interest both at the top and bottom of the league in tonight’s and tomorrow’s fixtures. These are “games-in-hand” for some teams. Man City have the opportunity to cash in and move ahead of Liverpool (permanently?) by hosting Cardiff, who pushed Chelsea hard at the weekend. City away however are a very different proposition for the Bluebirds. The Model thinks Cardiff will get hammered, and the most likely outcome is 4-0 (13%).

Fulham will be relegated if they lose tonight, and effectively relegated if they don’t win, proving that, despite strong correlation, money isn’t all that is needed to build a successful Premier League squad. The Model thinks this is highly likely to happen (cue footage of fans crying, who must have been in chronic denial of what was inevitable for months), with Fulham only given a 14% chance of a win away at Watford. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%)

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s midweek forecasts for the Premier League:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Watford Fulham 1-0 14 66 14
Wolves Manchester Utd 0-1 15 30 42
Chelsea Brighton 1-0 15 62 17
Manchester City Cardiff 4-0 13 81 7
Spurs Crystal Palace 1-0 12 56 20

Premier League, R32 (30 Mar-1 Apr)

The inevitable finally happened, and Ole got the top job at Man Utd. But now the “interim manager” effect is gone, and the buck really does stop with him. Will this affect the apparent warm glow around Utd and their on-field performances? Now he has the power to sell, buy and argue about money with his players, will things change? Utd host Watford this weekend, and the Model suggests this is one for Ole to relax into the role of manager of the “world’s biggest club”. Utd have a 58% chance of a win, and the most likely scoreline is 2-0 (10%).

The noisy neighbours in Manchester are still on for the quadruple. This puts into perspective how far City have left Utd behind. If they win their remaining possible games this season, then Man City will probably make history by securing every major trophy in one season. This weekend it should be a regulation 3 points, as they travel to struggling Fulham. The Model gives City a 73% chance of a win, and the most likely scoreline is 0-3 (9%).

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 32 of the Premier League:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Brighton Southampton 1-0 11 43 30
Burnley Wolves 0-1 9 32 40
Crystal Palace Huddersfield 1-0 17 64 15
Fulham Manchester City 0-3 9 10 73
Leicester Bournemouth 2-1 9 47 26
Manchester Utd Watford 2-0 10 58 19
West Ham Everton 1-0 9 42 31
Cardiff Chelsea 1-2 10 22 53
Liverpool Spurs 1-0 15 61 17
Arsenal Newcastle 1-0 15 60 18

Evaluation – March Update – “The Model vs Lawro vs Merse” – Model holds on to narrow Lead

The Model is holding on to a slim lead over Lawro an Merson, but the “experts” are closing in. Can the computer hang on to the end of the season?

The table below shows the recent forecasting performance of “The Model vs Lawro vs Merse”, as well as the cumulative performance all season, as of 10am 16/3/2019, according to the BBC Sport scoring metric (40 points for a perfect scoreline forecast, 10 points for a correct result only).

Note: Lawro achieved 40 points more in round 27 than recorded on the BBC website as we include a midweek forecast he made for a game rearranged for the Carabao Cup final.

Scorelines Results “Lawro” pts
Model Lawro Merson
Total 32/299 164/299 2600 2550 2540
30: 9-10 Mar 0/10 6/10 60 30 70
29: 2-3 Mar 1/10 7/10 100 100 100
28: 26-27 Feb 0/10 8/10 80 60 100
27: 6-24 Feb 2/9 5/9 110 150 90
26: 9-11 Feb 2/10 6/10 120 140 100
Rounds 1/25 27/250 132/250 2130 2070 2080

Premier League, R31 (16-17 Mar)

It’s a reduced Premier League programme this weekend, as some teams are distracted by the FA Cup.

He says he could write a book about van Dijk’s skills, but would anybody read it? Liverpool have the perfect chance to pile the pressure on title rivals City. The Model suggests Liverpool have a 70% chance of a win away at Fulham, and the most likely scoreline outcome is 0-2 (9%).

Chelsea are staying in the hunt for a top 4 place, just. But if they don’t take maximum points from Goodison, then they would have wasted their game in hand. The Model says this game will be fairly close, with Chelsea having a 47% chance of beating Everton, and the most likely outcome is 1-2 (8%).

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for half of Round 31 of the Premier League:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Bournemouth Newcastle 1-0 14 38 34
Burnley Leicester 2-1 9 44 29
West Ham Huddersfield 1-0 22 60 18
Everton Chelsea 1-2 8 26 47
Fulham Liverpool 0-2 9 12 70

Premier League, R30 (9-10 Mar)

Unsurprisingly, Spurs and Man Utd are favourites for the top 4 and Champions League qualification. But that picture can change quickly, and the Gunners will be hoping to boost their own chances by beating a buoyant but crocked Man Utd team this Sunday. The Model has them as marginal favourites (38% for Arsenal win), and the forecast scoreline is 2-1 (9%).

According to the Model, Huddersfield have a 0.1% chance of escaping relegation. But please, Terriers, prove it wrong! To do so, you imagine they must get 3 points this weekend at home to Bournemouth. The Model suggests this is a stiff ask, and the most likely outcomes are an away win (41%), and a scoreline of 0-1 (17%).

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 30 of the Premier League:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Crystal Palace Brighton 1-0 14 50 24
Cardiff West Ham 0-1 12 32 40
Huddersfield Bournemouth 0-1 17 32 41
Leicester Fulham 2-1 10 58 19
Manchester City Watford 3-0 13 72 11
Newcastle Everton 1-0 14 49 25
Southampton Spurs 1-2 10 28 45
Arsenal Manchester Utd 2-1 9 38 34
Chelsea Wolves 2-0 12 57 19
Liverpool Burnley 2-0 18 72 11

Premier League, R29 (2-3 Mar)

Fulham have a new manager – yes, another one! Ranieri has gone, and in his place is the inexperienced but apparently well-liked Scott Parker. Fulham fans must be hoping that likeability is correlated with success in football (think Ferguson, Mourinho, Benitez etc…). Parker does not have an easy introduction to management, as Sarri-ball comes down the road to the Cottage on the bank of the Thames. The Model makes Chelsea big favourites for this one, with a 59% chance of a win. The most likely outcome of the match is forecast as 0-2 (10%).

Leicester City also have a new manager. Brendan Rodgers copped some pretty unfair stick this week from Celtic fans. Is he really a sell-out for wanting to go and manage in a country and league where there actually is some football competition? You can’t claim he didn’t achieve as much as possible at Celtic: he won literally everything, and overachieved in Europe. Anyhow, the Model also suggests that Rodgers will have a tough first outing with Leicester at Watford. They have a forecast 23% chance of a win, and the forecast scoreline is 1-0 (9%).

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 29 of the Premier League:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Bournemouth Manchester City 0-2 12 15 65
Brighton Huddersfield 1-0 24 59 18
Burnley Crystal Palace 1-0 10 40 32
Everton Liverpool 0-1 17 19 57
Fulham Chelsea 0-2 10 18 59
Manchester Utd Southampton 2-0 15 67 14
Spurs Arsenal 2-1 9 44 29
Watford Leicester 1-0 9 52 23
West Ham Newcastle 1-0 16 41 32
Wolves Cardiff 1-0 17 63 16