Premier League, R27 (22-24 Feb)

Unusually, there are two Premier League fixtures on a Friday evening.

Cardiff welcome Watford in one of these games. Both teams are on good form, having won their last two each in all competitions. The Model gives the away side the edge, with a 43% chance of a Watford victory and the most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%).

The other fixture this evening is an all-London derby: East-side meets West-side. West Ham are unsurprisingly favourites to beat Fulham at their bargain-basement home in Stratford, with a 56% chance of a win, and the most likely outcome being 1-0 (10%).

With Man City in Carabao Cup Final action, Liverpool have the chance to pile on some pressure. But to do so they must overcome Ole’s Utd at Old Trafford. The Model says this might be too difficult a task, and gives Man Utd the edge, with a 39% chance of winning. The most likely outcome is 1-0 (8%).

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 27 of the Premier League:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Arsenal Southampton 2-0 10 60 17
Bournemouth Wolves 0-1 8 34 39
Burnley Spurs 1-2 10 25 49
Cardiff Watford 0-1 14 30 43
Leicester Crystal Palace 1-0 13 40 33
Manchester Utd Liverpool 1-0 8 39 33
Newcastle Huddersfield 1-0 23 63 16
West Ham Fulham 1-0 10 56 20
Advertisements

Premier League, R26 (9-11 Feb)

The standout fixture this weekend sees Manchester City take on a Higuaín-rejuvenated Chelsea. The Model makes Man City massive favourites at home, with a 59% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 (11%).

Spurs are still in the title hunt for sure, but to stay in it they have to put teams like Leicester away. The Model says they probably will, with a 63% chance of beating the Foxes and a forecast scoreline of 2-0 (10%).

Can Liverpool still win the title? This seems like a strange question to ask of a team who are level on equal points at the top of the table with a game in hand. But they are giving away ground on their rivals now, and momentum on the run-in is everything. The Model however makes them heavy favourites to get back to winning ways this weekend, with a 68% chance of beating Bournemouth at Anfield. The most likely outcome in this fixture is 3-0 (13%).

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 26 of the Premier League:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Brighton Burnley 1-0 15 48 26
Crystal Palace West Ham 1-0 11 48 26
Fulham Manchester Utd 1-2 10 21 55
Huddersfield Arsenal 0-1 15 20 56
Liverpool Bournemouth 3-0 13 68 13
Southampton Cardiff 1-0 14 57 20
Watford Everton 1-0 10 49 25
Manchester City Chelsea 2-0 11 59 18
Spurs Leicester 2-0 10 63 16
Wolves Newcastle 1-0 17 54 22

Premier League, R24 (2-4 Feb)

Newcastle spent money. Breaking the longest-standing club transfer record in modern Premier League history. The Model doesn’t factor this in, unless new signings start to improve a team’s form and results. So unsurprisingly, Spurs are still heavy favourites to beat Newcastle (62%) at their North London squat. The forecast scoreline is 1-0 (16%).

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 25 of the Premier League:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Brighton Watford 1-0 12 39 34
Burnley Southampton 1-0 11 41 32
Crystal Palace Fulham 2-1 10 56 20
Cardiff Bournemouth 1-2 8 30 42
Chelsea Huddersfield 1-0 18 71 12
Everton Wolves 1-0 13 39 33
Spurs Newcastle 1-0 16 62 16
Leicester Manchester Utd 1-2 8 27 46
Manchester City Arsenal 3-1 8 63 16
West Ham Liverpool 0-1 18 20 57

Premier League, R24 (19-20 Jan)

The Premier League has been experiencing something of a lull recently, as football fans have been distracted by the cups and some sad news.

One advantage of going out of the cup early is that players can be given a rest. Liverpool had this benefit, having exited the FA Cup earlier in the 3rd Round and also not getting far in the League Cup. This would have had a positive impact on their chances of overcoming Leicester at home on Wednesday night, had Leicester not also been dumped out of the cup early. Nonetheless, The Model gives Liverpool a 69% chance of victory and forecasts a scoreline of 2-0 (16%).

Manchester Utd are invincible (in 2019 and the last bit of 2018). The Model forecasts this invincibility will last a little longer, with Utd given a 67% chance of extending their winning run at home to Burnley. The forecast scoreline is a comfortable 2-0 (11%) win.

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 24 of the Premier League:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Arsenal Cardiff 2-0 10 69 13
Bournemouth Chelsea 1-2 9 23 51
Fulham Brighton 0-1 11 32 41
Huddersfield Everton 0-1 16 30 43
Manchester Utd Burnley 2-0 11 67 13
Wolves West Ham 1-0 13 50 24
Liverpool Leicester 2-0 16 69 12
Newcastle Manchester City 0-1 18 18 59
Southampton Crystal Palace 1-0 11 45 28
Spurs Watford 2-0 15 57 19

Premier League, R23 (19-20 Jan)

Is this the iconic image of Bournemouth? The balloon in the park? It is to me, from seaside trips years ago. Maybe Eddie Howe is now the iconic image of Bournemouth. He is the longest serving manager in the Premier League (just ahead of Sean Dyche at Burnley). And his side consistently exceed expectations. This weekend the Cherries welcome the Hammers. According to our Model, West Ham are favourites, with a 49% chance of victory and a most likely outcome of 1-2 (4%).

Arsenal v Chelsea is a big London derby. both sides are looking at the transfer market this month as they seek to make sure of Champions League football next season. The Model thinks this will be a tight game, with a most likely scoreline of 1-1 (8%).

Man Utd have 6 on the bounce. And they are favourites to make that 7, with a 60% chance of beating Brighton at home. The most likely outcome according to the Model is 1-0 (16%).

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 23 of the Premier League:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Arsenal Chelsea 1-1 8 34 37
Bournemouth West Ham 1-2 4 24 49
Liverpool Crystal Palace 2-0 20 55 20
Manchester Utd Brighton 1-0 16 60 17
Newcastle Cardiff 1-0 19 67 13
Southampton Everton 1-1 13 38 33
Watford Burnley 1-0 14 55 20
Wolves Leicester 1-0 13 57 19
Fulham Spurs 0-2 11 11 70
Huddersfield Manchester City 0-2 19 8 78

Premier League, R22 (12-14 Jan)

What neutral doesn’t want Liverpool to win the league? Compared to the massive wealth and resources available to Man City, surely Liverpool are the archetypal underdogs that we can all get behind (no tongue in cheek).

On Monday, Man City welcome Wolves to part of their estate. Despite Wolves having sunk Liverpool and Spurs in recent matches, the Model still gives City a 68% chance of 3 points, and a most likely scoreline of 2-1 (14%).

Liverpool play two days earlier, travelling to the South coast to face Brighton. Interestingly, the Model only just gives Liverpool the edge in this one, and suggests the most likely outcome is 0-0 (10%).

But… don’t forget about Spurs. They are still in the title race, but probably need a win at home to Manchester Utd this weekend. A month ago the Model probably would have given this one to Spurs comfortably, but now only gives them approximately a 50:50 chance of beating Utd, with the most likely scoreline 2-1 (8%):

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 22 of the Premier League:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Brighton Liverpool 0-0 10 35 36
Burnley Fulham 1-0 11 62 16
Crystal Palace Watford 1-1 12 37 34
Cardiff Huddersfield 1-0 16 46 27
Chelsea Newcastle 1-0 19 68 13
Leicester Southampton 1-1 11 34 37
West Ham Arsenal 1-2 9 28 43
Everton Bournemouth 2-1 6 63 15
Spurs Manchester Utd 2-1 8 49 24
Manchester City Wolves 2-0 14 68 12