League forecasts

December

Updated final league position forecasts are given below. These incorporate all information from all matches up to 19th December.

For comparison, the original forecasts from before a ball was kicked remain below also.

Most likely final position and chances of: winning the title, Champions League qualification, relegation, automatic promotion and making at least the playoffs.

(last updated: 19/12/2018)

English Premier League, 2018/19

Most likely pos.
August October December Title % CL % Rel %
1 1 1 Man City 83.8 100 0
2 2 2 Liverpool 16 99.8 0
3 4 3 Tottenham 0.2 89.8 0
6 3 4 Chelsea 0 67.2 0
6 6 5 Arsenal 0 22.4 0
2 5 6 Man Utd 0 20.6 0
15 7 7 B’mouth 0 0.1 0.2
7 10 7 Leicester 0 0 0.3
18 11 8 Brighton 0 0.1 0.4
16 15 8 West Ham 0 0 0.3
10 8 11 Wolves 0 0 2
12 12 11 Everton 0 0 1.3
17 9 12 Watford 0 0 0.5
14 15 13 C Palace 0 0 2.3
14 18 15 Newcastle 0 0 8.9
11 16 16 Burnley 0 0 13.8
16 17 17 S’ton 0 0 36.9
7 20 18 Cardiff 0 0 60.3
9 12 20 Fulham 0 0 84.1
20 19 20 Hudd 0 0 88.7

EFL Championship

Most likely pos.
Aug   Oct Dec Title % AP % Poffs % Rel %
5 14 1 Derby 20.4 36.1 75.3 0
11 3 1 Leeds 24.7 42.6 79.7 0
19 15 2 Norwich 14.9 31.7 71.9 0
22 6 3 Notts 8.6 16.2 51 0.2
3 2 3 W Brom 7.4 16.3 49.6 0
2 6 5 Swansea 4.6 10.8 38.3 0.8
1 12 6 Stoke 2.7 5.5 27 1
3 8 7 A Villa 3.1 7 33.2 0.2
24 16 7 Birm 3.4 8.3 33.2 0.9
7 1 8 Midd 2.9 7.5 36.1 0.2
9 5 8 Sheff Utd 1.5 3.2 19 2
5 10 10 Bristol C 2.9 5.4 23.3 1.2
12 17 11 Preston 0.8 2.9 17.3 1.6
16 6 13 Wigan 0.3 1.1 7.1 5.7
14 13 14 Blackb 1.1 3.8 20 1.3
22 20 14 QPR 0.7 1.2 11.2 4.3
18 9 20 Sheff Wed 0 0 1.7 21.7
15 18 21 Millwall 0 0.1 1.5 26.3
20 23 21 Reading 0 0 0.8 23.8
18 21 21 Roth 0 0.1 1.1 24.7
8 4 22 Brentford 0 0.1 1.1 23.6
15 22 22 Hull 0 0 0.4 31.2
23 19 23 Bolton 0 0.1 0.1 53.3
14 24 24 Ipswich 0 0 0.1 76

League 1

Most likely pos.
August December Team Title % AP % Poffs % Rel %
6 1 Portsmouth 30.9 52.7 88.8 0
1 1 Sunderland 30 50.1 88.4 0
24 2 Luton 15.8 32 77.6 0
3 3 Peterb 7 16.5 58.9 0.2
8 4 Blackpool 3 8.3 41 0.9
2 5 Barnsley 1 5 34.9 0.6
3 7 Charlton 4.1 11.2 42.4 0.5
10 7 Doncaster 3.3 9.2 45.6 0.6
24 8 Wycombe 0.9 3.4 22.9 2.6
19 9 Walsall 2.3 5.8 31.9 1.2
17 10 Fleet 0.3 1.4 15.6 3.6
24 11 Coventry 0.6 2.1 19.3 3.4
9 13 Burton 0.5 0.9 7.9 10.9
17 16 Oxford 0.1 0.2 3.1 17.8
22 16 Rochdale 0.1 0.5 5.4 13.6
21 17 Acc Stan 0 0.2 5.4 14.9
3 18 Scunth 0.1 0.1 1.5 26.6
11 18 Southend 0 0.2 2.9 18.5
9 20 Plymouth 0 0.1 1.5 24.7
1 20 Shrews 0 0.1 2.8 24.5
19 21 Gillingham 0 0 1.6 34
14 22 Bradford 0 0 0.6 43.6
18 24 AFC W 0 0 0 73.6
12 24 Bristol 0 0 0 83.7

League 2

Most likely pos.
August December Team Title % AP % Poffs % Rel %
3 1 MK Dons 56 84.7 96.6 0
15 2 FGR 6.1 29.4 62.8 0
6 2 Lincoln 15 44.7 78.6 0
10 3 Colch 2.4 17.6 48.2 0.1
5 3 Mansfield 4.8 23.3 55 0.2
9 4 Carlisle 2.1 13.7 40.2 0.6
21 4 Tranmere 4 18.5 49.5 0.2
4 6 Northam 1.8 8 30.3 0.8
9 7 Exeter 1.9 9.5 34.3 0.1
2 7 Oldham Athletic 1.5 11.7 38.3 0.4
1 10 Bury 1.6 11.5 37.9 0.5
14 12 Newport 0.8 8.3 27.7 0.7
12 13 Stevenage 1.2 7.4 29 0.6
10 15 Swindon 0.4 5.8 23.1 1.6
21 17 Crawley 0.1 0.9 7.6 5.8
24 18 Crewe 0.1 0.6 8.7 6.9
17 19 Port Vale 0.1 1.3 8.5 6.1
16 19 Yeovil 0 1.3 8.4 4.5
11 20 Chelt 0 0.4 4.7 12.6
24 20 Grimsby 0 0.7 5.9 7.1
19 23 Camb 0.1 0.4 1.9 22.6
22 23 Morec 0 0.1 1.3 27
5 23 Notts Cty 0 0.2 1.5 31.5
21 24 Maccles 0 0 0 70.1

Key (% likelihood of…):

  • Title: winning the league title
  • CL: qualifying for Champions League by finishing in the top 4.
  • Rel: relegation by finishing in bottom 3/4
  • AP: automatic promotion by finishing in positions 1-2/3
  • Poffs: at least making the playoffs by finishing in top 6/7

OctoberUpdated final league position forecasts are given below. These incorporate all information from all matches up to 18th October (i.e. before the end of the mid-October break for men’s international fixtures)

For comparison, the original forecasts from before a ball was kicked remain below also.

Most likely final position and chances of: winning the title, Champions League qualification, relegation, automatic promotion and making at least the playoffs.

(last updated: 19/10/2018)

English Premier League, 2018/19

Most likely pos.
August October Title % CL % Rel %
1 1 Man City 98.3 100 0
2 2 Liverpool 1.6 100 0
6 3 Chelsea 0.1 99.7 0
3 4 Tottenham 0 84.3 0
2 5 Man Utd 0 10 0
6 6 Arsenal 0 6 0
15 7 Bournemouth 0 0 0
10 8 Wolves 0 0 0
17 9 Watford 0 0 0
7 10 Leicester 0 0 0
18 11 Brighton 0 0 0.2
9 12 Fulham 0 0 0.4
12 12 Everton 0 0 0.4
16 15 West Ham 0 0 8.5
14 15 C Palace 0 0 8.1
11 16 Burnley 0 0 14.5
16 17 Southampton 0 0 24.4
14 18 Newcastle 0 0 43.6
20 19 Huddersfield 0 0 99.9
7 20 Cardiff 0 0 100

EFL Championship

Most likely pos.
August   October Title % AP % Poffs % Rel %
7 1 Middlesbro 78.2 95.6 100 0
3 2 West Brom 13.4 68.4 100 0
11 3 Leeds 7.6 29.5 99.6 0
8 4 Brentford 0.7 5.3 98.2 0
9 5 Sheff Utd 0.1 0.9 86.8 0
22 6 Nottm Forest 0 0.2 17.3 0
2 6 Swansea 0 0.1 22.9 0
16 6 Wigan 0 0 18.6 0
3 8 Aston Villa 0 0 14.5 0
18 9 Sheff Wed 0 0 12.2 0
5 10 Bristol C 0 0 8.7 0
1 12 Stoke 0 0 9.9 0
14 13 Blackburn 0 0 4.7 0
5 14 Derby 0 0 5.9 0
19 15 Norwich 0 0 0.2 0
24 16 Birmingham 0 0 0.5 0.3
12 17 Preston 0 0 0 0
15 18 Millwall 0 0 0 0.4
23 19 Bolton 0 0 0 5.1
22 20 QPR 0 0 0 11.5
18 21 Rotherham 0 0 0 50.9
15 22 Hull 0 0 0 65.9
20 23 Reading 0 0 0 73.1
14 24 Ipswich 0 0 0 92.8

Pre-season – August 2018

Most likely final position and chances of: winning the title, Champions League qualification, relegation, automatic promotion and making at least the playoffs.

(last updated before R1, 01/08/18)

English Premier League, 2018/19

Pos. Team Title % CL % Rel %
1 Manchester City 92.4 100 0
2 Liverpool 1.9 68.3 0
2 Manchester United 3.7 79 0
3 Tottenham Hotspur 1.1 78.3 0
6 Arsenal 0.2 29.9 0
6 Chelsea 0.7 44.3 0
7 Cardiff City 0 0.1 0.2
7 Leicester City 0 0.1 0.1
9 Fulham 0 0 0.4
10 Wolverhampton Wanderers 0 0 0.5
11 Burnley 0 0 1.1
12 Everton 0 0 7.2
14 Crystal Palace 0 0 27.6
14 Newcastle United 0 0 22.7
15 AFC Bournemouth 0 0 23.9
16 Southampton 0 0 32.6
16 West Ham United 0 0 30.2
17 Watford 0 0 27.4
18 Brighton & Hove Albion 0 0 44.1
20 Huddersfield Town 0 0 82

EFL Championship

Pos. Team Title % AP % Poffs % Rel %
1 Stoke City 45.5 68.4 96.4 0
2 Swansea City 21.7 44.2 89.1 0
3 Aston Villa 10.7 25.4 81.4 0
3 West Bromwich Albion 11.6 28.8 83.3 0
5 Bristol City 2.4 7.6 49.2 0.1
5 Derby County 5.4 15.4 68 0
7 Middlesbrough 1 4.4 42.1 0
8 Brentford 0.6 2 23.1 0
9 Sheffield United 1 2.7 31.7 0.1
11 Leeds United 0 0.3 5 2.4
12 Preston North End 0.1 0.2 5.2 2
14 Blackburn Rovers 0 0 1.8 2.9
14 Ipswich Town 0 0.1 2.2 4.4
15 Hull City 0 0 6.2 2.4
15 Millwall 0 0.1 6.9 2.7
16 Wigan Athletic 0 0.2 3.1 3.2
18 Rotherham United 0 0.2 2.4 3.3
18 Sheffield Wednesday 0 0 1.4 8.4
19 Norwich City 0 0 0.7 13.9
20 Reading 0 0 0.2 24.1
22 Nottingham Forest 0 0 0.2 24.3
22 Queens Park Rangers 0 0 0.4 25.2
23 Bolton Wanderers 0 0 0 86.6
24 Birmingham City 0 0 0 94

League 1

Pos. Team Title % AP % Poffs % Rel %
1 Shrewsbury Town 32.4 53.3 89.2 0
1 Sunderland 25.7 43.6 85.1 0
2 Barnsley 12.3 29.9 74 0.2
3 Charlton Athletic 4.2 9.8 45.1 0.9
3 Peterborough United 4.3 12.1 46.7 0.7
3 Scunthorpe United 13.4 26.4 72.5 0.1
6 Portsmouth 3.4 8.4 38.7 0.9
8 Blackpool 1.1 2.9 22.8 3.9
9 Burton Albion 0.3 1.6 18.9 4.7
9 Plymouth Argyle 0.5 2.7 20.5 3.4
10 Doncaster Rovers 0.6 3.1 20.9 4.4
11 Southend United 0.6 1.6 11.4 9.9
12 Bristol Rovers 0.5 1.1 12.1 9.5
14 Bradford City 0 0.2 6.1 14.3
17 Fleetwood Town 0.2 1.2 9.5 11.5
17 Oxford United 0.3 1.4 10.6 11.8
18 AFC Wimbledon 0 0.1 2.4 26.5
19 Gillingham 0.1 0.2 4.2 15.9
19 Walsall 0.1 0.4 4.8 18.3
21 Accrington Stanley 0 0 0.5 41.5
22 Rochdale 0 0 3.1 25.3
24 Coventry City 0 0 0.1 71.2
24 Luton Town 0 0 0.1 70.3
24 Wycombe Wanderers 0 0 0.7 54.8

League 2

Pos. Team Title % AP % Poffs % Rel %
1 Bury 74.1 98 100 0
2 Oldham Athletic 12.5 72.5 99.3 0
3 Milton Keynes Dons 8.6 66.4 99.3 0
4 Northampton Town 4.4 49 98.5 0
5 Mansfield Town 0.1 4.5 70 0
5 Notts County 0.3 5.3 73.9 0
6 Lincoln City 0 2.9 57.4 0
9 Carlisle United 0 0.1 15.4 0.2
9 Exeter City 0 0.4 16.8 0.3
10 Colchester United 0 0.3 19.7 0.1
10 Swindon Town 0 0.5 17.7 0.1
11 Cheltenham Town 0 0 14.8 0.1
12 Stevenage 0 0 9.7 0.4
14 Newport County 0 0.1 3.6 0.9
15 Forest Green Rovers 0 0 0.9 3.9
16 Yeovil Town 0 0 0.8 5
17 Port Vale 0 0 0.5 7.4
19 Cambridge United 0 0 0.9 6.5
21 Crawley Town 0 0 0.3 10.8
21 Macclesfield Town 0 0 0.2 13.2
21 Tranmere Rovers 0 0 0.2 13.8
22 Morecambe 0 0 0 27.6
24 Crewe Alexandra 0 0 0 56.5
24 Grimsby Town 0 0 0.1 53.2

Key (% likelihood of…)

  • Title: winning the league title
  • CL: qualifying for Champions League by finishing in the top 4.
  • Rel: relegation by finishing in bottom 3/4
  • AP: automatic promotion by finishing in positions 1-2/3
  • Poffs: at least making the playoffs by finishing in top 6/7
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