League forecasts

October

Updated final league position forecasts are given below. These incorporate all information from all matches up to 18th October (i.e. before the end of the mid-October break for men’s international fixtures)

For comparison, the original forecasts from before a ball was kicked remain below also.

Most likely final position and chances of: winning the title, Champions League qualification, relegation, automatic promotion and making at least the playoffs.

(last updated: 19/10/2018)

English Premier League, 2018/19

Most likely pos.
August October Title % CL % Rel %
1 1 Man City 98.3 100 0
2 2 Liverpool 1.6 100 0
6 3 Chelsea 0.1 99.7 0
3 4 Tottenham 0 84.3 0
2 5 Man Utd 0 10 0
6 6 Arsenal 0 6 0
15 7 Bournemouth 0 0 0
10 8 Wolves 0 0 0
17 9 Watford 0 0 0
7 10 Leicester 0 0 0
18 11 Brighton 0 0 0.2
9 12 Fulham 0 0 0.4
12 12 Everton 0 0 0.4
16 15 West Ham 0 0 8.5
14 15 C Palace 0 0 8.1
11 16 Burnley 0 0 14.5
16 17 Southampton 0 0 24.4
14 18 Newcastle 0 0 43.6
20 19 Huddersfield 0 0 99.9
7 20 Cardiff 0 0 100

EFL Championship

Most likely pos.
August   October Title % AP % Poffs % Rel %
7 1 Middlesbro 78.2 95.6 100 0
3 2 West Brom 13.4 68.4 100 0
11 3 Leeds 7.6 29.5 99.6 0
8 4 Brentford 0.7 5.3 98.2 0
9 5 Sheff Utd 0.1 0.9 86.8 0
22 6 Nottm Forest 0 0.2 17.3 0
2 6 Swansea 0 0.1 22.9 0
16 6 Wigan 0 0 18.6 0
3 8 Aston Villa 0 0 14.5 0
18 9 Sheff Wed 0 0 12.2 0
5 10 Bristol C 0 0 8.7 0
1 12 Stoke 0 0 9.9 0
14 13 Blackburn 0 0 4.7 0
5 14 Derby 0 0 5.9 0
19 15 Norwich 0 0 0.2 0
24 16 Birmingham 0 0 0.5 0.3
12 17 Preston 0 0 0 0
15 18 Millwall 0 0 0 0.4
23 19 Bolton 0 0 0 5.1
22 20 QPR 0 0 0 11.5
18 21 Rotherham 0 0 0 50.9
15 22 Hull 0 0 0 65.9
20 23 Reading 0 0 0 73.1
14 24 Ipswich 0 0 0 92.8

 

Pre-season – August 2018

Most likely final position and chances of: winning the title, Champions League qualification, relegation, automatic promotion and making at least the playoffs.

(last updated before R1, 01/08/18)

English Premier League, 2018/19

Pos. Team Title % CL % Rel %
1 Manchester City 92.4 100 0
2 Liverpool 1.9 68.3 0
2 Manchester United 3.7 79 0
3 Tottenham Hotspur 1.1 78.3 0
6 Arsenal 0.2 29.9 0
6 Chelsea 0.7 44.3 0
7 Cardiff City 0 0.1 0.2
7 Leicester City 0 0.1 0.1
9 Fulham 0 0 0.4
10 Wolverhampton Wanderers 0 0 0.5
11 Burnley 0 0 1.1
12 Everton 0 0 7.2
14 Crystal Palace 0 0 27.6
14 Newcastle United 0 0 22.7
15 AFC Bournemouth 0 0 23.9
16 Southampton 0 0 32.6
16 West Ham United 0 0 30.2
17 Watford 0 0 27.4
18 Brighton & Hove Albion 0 0 44.1
20 Huddersfield Town 0 0 82

EFL Championship

Pos. Team Title % AP % Poffs % Rel %
1 Stoke City 45.5 68.4 96.4 0
2 Swansea City 21.7 44.2 89.1 0
3 Aston Villa 10.7 25.4 81.4 0
3 West Bromwich Albion 11.6 28.8 83.3 0
5 Bristol City 2.4 7.6 49.2 0.1
5 Derby County 5.4 15.4 68 0
7 Middlesbrough 1 4.4 42.1 0
8 Brentford 0.6 2 23.1 0
9 Sheffield United 1 2.7 31.7 0.1
11 Leeds United 0 0.3 5 2.4
12 Preston North End 0.1 0.2 5.2 2
14 Blackburn Rovers 0 0 1.8 2.9
14 Ipswich Town 0 0.1 2.2 4.4
15 Hull City 0 0 6.2 2.4
15 Millwall 0 0.1 6.9 2.7
16 Wigan Athletic 0 0.2 3.1 3.2
18 Rotherham United 0 0.2 2.4 3.3
18 Sheffield Wednesday 0 0 1.4 8.4
19 Norwich City 0 0 0.7 13.9
20 Reading 0 0 0.2 24.1
22 Nottingham Forest 0 0 0.2 24.3
22 Queens Park Rangers 0 0 0.4 25.2
23 Bolton Wanderers 0 0 0 86.6
24 Birmingham City 0 0 0 94

League 1

Pos. Team Title % AP % Poffs % Rel %
1 Shrewsbury Town 32.4 53.3 89.2 0
1 Sunderland 25.7 43.6 85.1 0
2 Barnsley 12.3 29.9 74 0.2
3 Charlton Athletic 4.2 9.8 45.1 0.9
3 Peterborough United 4.3 12.1 46.7 0.7
3 Scunthorpe United 13.4 26.4 72.5 0.1
6 Portsmouth 3.4 8.4 38.7 0.9
8 Blackpool 1.1 2.9 22.8 3.9
9 Burton Albion 0.3 1.6 18.9 4.7
9 Plymouth Argyle 0.5 2.7 20.5 3.4
10 Doncaster Rovers 0.6 3.1 20.9 4.4
11 Southend United 0.6 1.6 11.4 9.9
12 Bristol Rovers 0.5 1.1 12.1 9.5
14 Bradford City 0 0.2 6.1 14.3
17 Fleetwood Town 0.2 1.2 9.5 11.5
17 Oxford United 0.3 1.4 10.6 11.8
18 AFC Wimbledon 0 0.1 2.4 26.5
19 Gillingham 0.1 0.2 4.2 15.9
19 Walsall 0.1 0.4 4.8 18.3
21 Accrington Stanley 0 0 0.5 41.5
22 Rochdale 0 0 3.1 25.3
24 Coventry City 0 0 0.1 71.2
24 Luton Town 0 0 0.1 70.3
24 Wycombe Wanderers 0 0 0.7 54.8

League 2

Pos. Team Title % AP % Poffs % Rel %
1 Bury 74.1 98 100 0
2 Oldham Athletic 12.5 72.5 99.3 0
3 Milton Keynes Dons 8.6 66.4 99.3 0
4 Northampton Town 4.4 49 98.5 0
5 Mansfield Town 0.1 4.5 70 0
5 Notts County 0.3 5.3 73.9 0
6 Lincoln City 0 2.9 57.4 0
9 Carlisle United 0 0.1 15.4 0.2
9 Exeter City 0 0.4 16.8 0.3
10 Colchester United 0 0.3 19.7 0.1
10 Swindon Town 0 0.5 17.7 0.1
11 Cheltenham Town 0 0 14.8 0.1
12 Stevenage 0 0 9.7 0.4
14 Newport County 0 0.1 3.6 0.9
15 Forest Green Rovers 0 0 0.9 3.9
16 Yeovil Town 0 0 0.8 5
17 Port Vale 0 0 0.5 7.4
19 Cambridge United 0 0 0.9 6.5
21 Crawley Town 0 0 0.3 10.8
21 Macclesfield Town 0 0 0.2 13.2
21 Tranmere Rovers 0 0 0.2 13.8
22 Morecambe 0 0 0 27.6
24 Crewe Alexandra 0 0 0 56.5
24 Grimsby Town 0 0 0.1 53.2

Key (% likelihood of…)

  • Title: winning the league title
  • CL: qualifying for Champions League by finishing in the top 4.
  • Rel: relegation by finishing in bottom 3/4
  • AP: automatic promotion by finishing in positions 1-2/3
  • Poffs: at least making the playoffs by finishing in top 6/7
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