End of Season League Two (April 5)

After updating our end-of-season projections for the Premier League, Championship and League One, we now add League Two. At the top, Lincoln are already essentially promoted; an eleven point gap to fourth placed Mansfield may be surmountable, but not realistically, the Model thinks. Congratulations, Lincoln!

Bury’s blip this week on and off the pitch have probably sealed Lincoln’s promotion, but they do still have a 61% chance of joining the Imps come May.

Tranmere’s seven match winning run was unexpectedly ended by Greater Manchester’s other basement dwellers Oldham, but they still harbour hopes of making the top three (11% chance).

Only two teams, Cheltenham and Grimsby, have absolutely no chance of anything at all this season any more.

At the bottom Notts County’s recent revival has given them a shot at avoiding the drop, but they are still at 84% chance (Macclesfield at 61%, Yeovil at 50%).

Position Probability (%)
Team Most Likely Prob (%) Title Promotion Play-offs Relegation
LIN 1 86% 86% 100% 100% 0%
MKD 2 48% 11% 85% 100% 0%
BUR 3 37% 2% 61% 100% 0%
MAN 4 36% 1% 41% 100% 0%
TRA 5 40% 0% 11% 97% 0%
EXE 6 29% 0% 2% 68% 0%
FGR 7 24% 0% 0% 54% 0%
COL 8 18% 0% 0% 29% 0%
NEW 8 15% 0% 0% 21% 0%
CAR 10 18% 0% 0% 11% 0%
SWI 10 16% 0% 0% 12% 0%
OLD 12 16% 0% 0% 6% 0%
CRE 13 17% 0% 0% 1% 0%
STE 14 18% 0% 0% 1% 0%
NOR 15 21% 0% 0% 1% 0%
CHE 16 24% 0% 0% 0% 0%
GRI 17 31% 0% 0% 0% 0%
CAM 18 26% 0% 0% 0% 1%
MOR 19 23% 0% 0% 0% 1%
CRA 19 25% 0% 0% 0% 2%
POR 21 25% 0% 0% 0% 2%
YEO 22 36% 0% 0% 0% 50%
MAC 23 34% 0% 0% 0% 61%
NOT 24 53% 0% 0% 0% 84%
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Championship, R40 (6 Apr, 2019)

The true and greatest “Championship” in England and Wales begins today, so this Scorecasting Economist is too distracted to say much about the footballing title-name rip-off version.

Anyway… the Model’s latest April edition end of season league table forecasts suggests that most teams have something to play for. Only Brentford, Birmingham, Stoke, Blackburn and QPR, plus relegated Ipswich, might as well finish their seasons early and start focusing on the next Championship/L1 campaign.

Our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Birmingham Leeds 0-1 9 31 42
Blackburn Stoke 1-0 19 40 33
Bolton Ipswich 1-0 18 44 29
Brentford Derby 1-0 12 44 29
Bristol City Wigan 1-0 14 60 17
Hull Reading 2-0 12 51 24
Millwall West Brom 1-2 10 29 44
Norwich QPR 2-0 11 68 13
Preston Sheff Utd 1-0 12 38 35
Rotherham Notts Forest 0-1 15 31 41
Sheffield Wed Aston Villa 1-0 10 40 32
Swansea Middlesbrough 1-0 13 45 28

End of Season League Table Forecasts (April edition)

We have run the simulations and updated our probabilistic forecasts of the final Premier League and Championship tables in 2019 (below — also see here for comparison with previous end of season forecasts).

Man City are now clear title favourites, 79% to Liverpools 21%.

Man Utd have a forecast 32% likelihood of making the top 4 and qualifying for the Champions League (that way). Chelsea (44%), Arsenal (42%) and Spurs (82%) are all ahead in the competition for a top 4 spot.

Fulham and Huddersfield are already relegated. Cardiff are now most likely to join them in the Championship next season at 63%. Burnley however ares till in significant danger, with a 22% chance of going down.


These forecasts incorporate all information from all matches up to 4th April.

Most likely final position and chances of: winning the title, Champions League qualification, relegation, automatic promotion and making at least the playoffs.


 

Most likely position Likelihood of… (%)
Aug April Title CL Rel
1 1 Man City 79.2 100 0
2 2 Liverpool 20.8 100 0
3 3 Tottenham 0 81.8 0
6 5 Chelsea 0 44.3 0
2 6 Man Utd 0 31.7 0
6 6 Arsenal 0 42.2 0
10 7 Wolves 0 0 0
17 8 Watford 0 0 0
12 9 Everton 0 0 0
7 10 Leicester 0 0 0
16 11 West Ham 0 0 0
15 12 B’mouth 0 0 0.4
14 13 C Palace 0 0 0.1
14 13 Newcastle 0 0 1.1
18 15 Brighton 0 0 4.9
16 16 S’ton 0 0 8.9
11 17 Burnley 0 0 21.9
7 18 Cardiff 0 0 62.7
9 19 Fulham 0 0 100
20 20 Hudd 0 0 100

Premier League, R33 (5-8 Apr)

There are 6 Premier League games this weekend. While not having been a memorable season in terms of quality, at least we are entering the final stages with many teams still having something significant to play for. Not least, the title is still undecided, even if it is no longer in Liverpool’s hands. To put the pressure back on Manchester City, who are in FA Cup action this weekend, Liverpool must come away from Southampton with a win tonight. Fortunately for them, the Scorecasting Model gives the Reds a 60% chance of doing just that, and the most likely outcome is 0-1 (21%).

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 33 of the Premier League:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Southampton Liverpool 0-1 21 18 60
Bournemouth Burnley 2-1 9 45 29
Huddersfield Leicester 0-1 17 23 51
Newcastle Crystal Palace 1-0 11 43 30
Everton Arsenal 1-2 8 29 44
Chelsea West Ham 1-0 14 62 16

League One End of Season (April 4)

Both ends of League One contain plenty to keep fans of the teams involved anxious, and armchair fans absorbed.

While Luton are clear at the top, with a 90% chance of winning the league and a 98% chance of securing promotion, the fight beneath them for the second promotion spot is between Portsmouth, Barnsley and Sunderland. Charlton have an outside chance (1%) of sneaking into the mix, but realistically, it’s a three way battle, and despite Sunderland’s games in hand, the Model sees Portsmouth and Barnsley are more likely to avoid the play-offs.

Beneath, there’s just one play-off spot un-determined; just a couple of weeks ago Coventry were favourites to take it, but they’ve fallen away badly, leaving Doncaster (45%) most likely to grab it.

The bottom of the table though is the most absorbing story. Even twelfth placed Oxford have a 1% chance of being relegated, but more realistically, it is a fight involving everyone from 17th placed Wycombe downwards. Wycombe, Accrington, Southend and Scunthorpe, who currently occupy the four places above the relegation zone, are sinking like lead balloons at just the wrong time, with four defeats in their last five. Southend as such have a 53% chance of going down, a greater chance than second bottom Rochdale, who are rallying and have a 44% chance of relegation.

Bradford look doomed, with a 96% chance of suffering the drop.

Position Probability (%)
team Final Prob (%) Title Promotion Play-offs Relegation
LUT 1 90% 90% 98% 100% 0%
POR 2 35% 4% 39% 100% 0%
BAR 3 38% 4% 38% 100% 0%
SUN 4 39% 2% 23% 100% 0%
CHA 5 75% 0% 1% 100% 0%
PET 6 27% 0% 0% 28% 0%
DON 6 43% 0% 0% 45% 0%
BLA 8 24% 0% 0% 12% 0%
COV 9 24% 0% 0% 9% 0%
FLE 10 24% 0% 0% 5% 0%
BUR 11 34% 0% 0% 2% 0%
OXF 12 31% 0% 0% 0% 1%
PLY 13 18% 0% 0% 0% 2%
ACC 14 12% 0% 0% 0% 13%
GIL 14 15% 0% 0% 0% 4%
BRR 15 16% 0% 0% 0% 8%
SHR 19 12% 0% 0% 0% 21%
WYC 20 11% 0% 0% 0% 28%
WIM 22 13% 0% 0% 0% 40%
SCU 22 13% 0% 0% 0% 38%
SOU 23 17% 0% 0% 0% 53%
ROC 23 16% 0% 0% 0% 44%
WAL 23 17% 0% 0% 0% 53%
BRA 24 72% 0% 0% 0% 96%

Premier League, R27&31&33 (2-3 Apr)

There is plenty of interest both at the top and bottom of the league in tonight’s and tomorrow’s fixtures. These are “games-in-hand” for some teams. Man City have the opportunity to cash in and move ahead of Liverpool (permanently?) by hosting Cardiff, who pushed Chelsea hard at the weekend. City away however are a very different proposition for the Bluebirds. The Model thinks Cardiff will get hammered, and the most likely outcome is 4-0 (13%).

Fulham will be relegated if they lose tonight, and effectively relegated if they don’t win, proving that, despite strong correlation, money isn’t all that is needed to build a successful Premier League squad. The Model thinks this is highly likely to happen (cue footage of fans crying, who must have been in chronic denial of what was inevitable for months), with Fulham only given a 14% chance of a win away at Watford. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%)

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s midweek forecasts for the Premier League:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Watford Fulham 1-0 14 66 14
Wolves Manchester Utd 0-1 15 30 42
Chelsea Brighton 1-0 15 62 17
Manchester City Cardiff 4-0 13 81 7
Spurs Crystal Palace 1-0 12 56 20

Championship Midweek Catch-up, R29 & R33 (2 Apr, 2019)

There are two Championship games on Tuesday night. Middlesbrough host Bristol City and Swansea host Brentford. The Model suggests both of these fixtures should be reasonably close, and in both the most likely outcome is 1-0, to the home side.

The details of our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Middlesbrough Bristol City 1-0 16 42 31
Swansea Brentford 1-0 12 39 33