Lower Leagues, R33 (Feb 15-16)

League Two continues to attract more column inches, television minutes and internet bandwidth with the addition of not one, but two former England internationals in just a few months this season. Robbie Savage and Crewe boss David Artell have both taken the time today to point out how both men have much more to lose than gain from their managerial punts.  Artell’s Crewe got a 3-3 draw at Campbell’s Macclesfield last weekend, and this weekend they come face to face with Scholes’s Oldham. The Model fancies a 2-1 Oldham win – already a revised forecast relative to before Scholes had managed a match, reflecting the five-goal opening match of Scholes’s reign in the week.

In League One, sleeping giants Sunderland entertain the even more deeply slumbering Accrington Stanley in the North East tonight, and The Model expects them to shade that one 1-0 (21%).

Forecast Win (%)
League One Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Barnsley Wycombe 1-0 15% 61% 17%
Bradford Plymouth 2-1 7% 41% 31%
Charlton Blackpool 1-0 16% 42% 31%
Coventry Walsall 1-0 13% 50% 24%
Doncaster Bristol R 2-1 10% 55% 21%
Fleetwood Luton 0-1 11% 27% 47%
Gillingham Scunthorpe 2-1 7% 41% 31%
Oxford Peterboro 1-0 7% 43% 30%
Shrewsbury Burton 1-0 11% 42% 31%
Southend Portsmouth 0-1 15% 31% 42%
Sunderland Accrington 1-0 21% 61% 17%

 

Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Cambridge Tranmere 1-0 7% 37% 35%
Carlisle MK Dons 1-0 8% 48% 26%
Exeter Bury 1-1 9% 36% 36%
F Green Yeovil 1-0 15% 57% 19%
Grimsby Cheltenham 1-0 10% 45% 28%
Lincoln Stevenage 1-0 14% 59% 18%
Macc T Colchester 0-1 10% 34% 39%
Newport Swindon 1-0 10% 40% 32%
N’hampton Crawley 1-0 12% 54% 21%
Notts Co Mansfield 0-1 10% 23% 52%
Oldham Crewe 2-1 10% 49% 25%
Port Vale Morecambe 1-0 17% 46% 27%
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Lower Leagues, catch-up (Feb 12)

Apparently there are other matches taking place tonight than Paul Scholes’s first match as Oldham manager. Here are our forecasts for those other matches, starting in League One, with League Two forecasts below. Sunderland have fallen 11 points behind leaders Luton, but tonight they play one of their three games in hand. With 21% likelihood they will narrowly beat Blackpool 1-0 tonight. Let’s hope that not too many Blackpool fans are making the journey home at full time by public transport.

Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Doncaster Southend 2-1 8% 58% 19%
Sunderland Blackpool 1-0 21% 49% 25%
Walsall AFC Wim 1-0 17% 44% 29%

Similarly, let’s hope there aren’t any Yeovil fans trying to get back to the West Country after their visit to Paul Scholes’s Oldham…

Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Crewe Carlisle 1-2 9% 34% 38%
Newport MK Dons 1-0 8% 44% 29%
Oldham Yeovil 1-0 17% 55% 21%
Swindon F Green 1-1 13% 35% 37%

Champions League R16 L1 (a) (12-13 Feb)

The Champions League returns to dominate midweek evenings for the next few weeks. A rejuvenated Manchester United face a less than bouyant PSG this evening, a match-up that looked very tricky for United when it was drawn out of the hat. As it is, now The Model expects a 2-1 Man United win (9%), and there’s a 53% chance they win. The away goal will irritate United, but The Model reckons there’s an 18% chance they’ll win without conceding any away goals. Tottenham will also win 2-1 (7%), and The Model thinks there’s a 13% chance they’ll win without conceding an away goal.

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Man Utd Paris St-G. 2-1 9% 53% 22%
Roma Porto 2-1 7% 39% 34%
Ajax Real Madrid 1-2 8% 34% 38%
Tottenham B Dortmund 2-1 7% 57% 20%

As with our forecasts at the culmination of the Group Stage, we are going head to head with Jean-Louis Foulley, of the Université de Montpellier. We didn’t do so well last time round, so we’re hoping to do better this week. Here are his forecasts:

  Win %
Foulley forecasts Score P(R) P(H) P(A)
Roma Porto 1-1 12% 44% 30%
Man Utd PSG 1-0 11% 45% 30%
Tottenham Dortmund 1-0 11% 55% 22%
Ajax Real Madrid 0-1 11% 24% 52%

Championship, R32 (12-13 Feb, 2019)

Our Championship forecasts are in the table below:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Birmingham Bolton 1-0 15 65 14
Bristol City QPR 1-0 13 55 21
Hull Rotherham 1-0 13 59 18
Millwall Sheffield Wed 1-0 13 45 28
West Brom Notts Forest 1-0 11 53 22
Brentford Aston Villa 1-0 11 47 26
Ipswich Derby 0-1 16 23 52
Leeds Swansea 1-0 11 45 28
Preston Norwich 1-1 12 36 36
Reading Blackburn 1-0 9 38 34
Sheff Utd Middlesbrough 1-0 14 44 29
Wigan Stoke 1-0 14 41 31

Scholes to do a Solskjær?

After a mere 718 games playing for the world famous Manchester United, winning almost every honour possible, Paul Scholes (pictured) is finally living the dream – taking up the managerial reins at Oldham Athletic. It’s something Oldham fans have long hoped for, especially as during that time that Scholes took United to soaring heights, the Latics slipped further and further down the leagues.

There is still some way further down they could go, but 14th in League Two for the Premier League founder members, feels close to rock bottom.

However, Scholes could hardly have asked for a better first three fixtures. Naturally, at any level there are no easy games, but in the spectrum of winnable to nigh on impossible, Oldham have three of the more winnable games coming up – three home fixtures on the bounce against teams below them, between today and next Tuesday.

There’s a 55% chance they win tonight (1-0, 17%) against Yeovil, there’s a 49% chance they win on Saturday against Crewe (1-0, 10%), and a 59% chance they win against Morcambe next Tuesday (1-0, 13%). See the table…

Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Tues 12 Oldham Yeovil 1-0 17% 55% 21%
Sat 16 Oldham Crewe 1-0 10% 49% 25%
Tues 19 Oldham Morecamb 1-0 13% 59% 18%

 

Lower Leagues, R32 (Feb 9)

Here are the lower league forecasts for the coming weekend…

Forecast Win (%)
League One Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
AFC Wim Burton 1-1 12% 36% 36%
Blackpool Walsall 1-0 17% 56% 20%
Bradford Fleetwood 1-0 7% 41% 31%
Bristol R Shrewsbury 1-0 16% 45% 28%
Charlton Southend 1-0 16% 55% 21%
Doncaster Peterboro 2-1 7% 51% 23%
Gillingham Barnsley 1-2 10% 27% 47%
Luton Wycombe 1-0 18% 61% 17%
Oxford Sunderland 0-1 12% 30% 43%
Plymouth Portsmouth 0-1 12% 33% 40%
Rochdale Coventry 1-0 12% 40% 33%
Scunthorpe Accrington 1-0 10% 43% 30%
Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Cambridge U Port Vale 1-0 16% 43% 30%
Carlisle Exeter 1-0 9% 45% 28%
Colchester Cheltenham 2-0 12% 44% 29%
Crawley Oldham 0-1 11% 34% 39%
Forest Green Notts Co 1-0 15% 68% 13%
Lincoln Northampton 1-0 12% 56% 20%
Macclesfield Crewe 1-0 10% 37% 35%
MK Dons Swindon 1-0 18% 46% 27%
Morecambe Bury 1-2 9% 24% 50%
Newport Co Mansfield 0-1 13% 30% 43%
Tranmere Stevenage 1-0 17% 45% 28%
Yeovil Grimsby 1-0 22% 40% 33%

Premier League, R26 (9-11 Feb)

The standout fixture this weekend sees Manchester City take on a Higuaín-rejuvenated Chelsea. The Model makes Man City massive favourites at home, with a 59% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline is 2-0 (11%).

Spurs are still in the title hunt for sure, but to stay in it they have to put teams like Leicester away. The Model says they probably will, with a 63% chance of beating the Foxes and a forecast scoreline of 2-0 (10%).

Can Liverpool still win the title? This seems like a strange question to ask of a team who are level on equal points at the top of the table with a game in hand. But they are giving away ground on their rivals now, and momentum on the run-in is everything. The Model however makes them heavy favourites to get back to winning ways this weekend, with a 68% chance of beating Bournemouth at Anfield. The most likely outcome in this fixture is 3-0 (13%).

The table below gives the rest of the Model’s forecasts for Round 26 of the Premier League:

  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw
Forecast Win (%)
    Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Brighton Burnley 1-0 15 48 26
Crystal Palace West Ham 1-0 11 48 26
Fulham Manchester Utd 1-2 10 21 55
Huddersfield Arsenal 0-1 15 20 56
Liverpool Bournemouth 3-0 13 68 13
Southampton Cardiff 1-0 14 57 20
Watford Everton 1-0 10 49 25
Manchester City Chelsea 2-0 11 59 18
Spurs Leicester 2-0 10 63 16
Wolves Newcastle 1-0 17 54 22